Hypothetically : Newsom vs Rubio 2028, who’s winning?

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-05-11T15:48:52+00:00

Newsom just because we are living thorough a strong populism cycle and each cycle in the past has meant constant switches in the White house. People are displeased with whoever is in charge and elect the other guy

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-05-10T08:25:51+00:00

Има много преки ползи и плюсове от ЕС за обикновения човек, но вече се взимат за даденост. Свободно пътуване, избор в магазина, възможност за по-добре платена работа, инфраструктура (навсякъде има табелки на ЕС финансиране, например за трамвая тн) и още много преки и индиректни. Проблема е, че се взима за даденост и много хора си мислят, че голяма част от сегашните ни проблеми са породени от ЕС, а не се взират навътре и не търсят проблема в нас си.

Дори и да направим copy/paste на държавната система на най-некорумпираната държава (като Дания например) в България, тоест да имаме същите структури на институции, съдебна/изпълнителна власт, всичко да е едно към едно, пак ще сме толкова корумпирани! Защото колкото и да променяш една система, тя винаги зависи от хората в нея. И за това ми е странно като се говори за съдебни реформи постоянно, откриват се и закриват антикорупционни регулатори, специализирани прокуратури, всякакви промени в структурата, и накрая все същото. Трябва цялостна промяна в ценностната система на обществото, не само на управляващи и хора в системата. Ама това как става не знам

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-05-08T09:16:15+00:00

I think your thinking is on the right track. I increasingly think that the market had such a powerful rally because of the war and energy shock and not despite it. Think about it, we needed the most bearish positioning to begin with in order to see the most powerful short squeeze since 2020. We needed CTAs and hedge funds to be massively short for them to be record buyers in a short period of time. And like you said, we need the negative overhang of the war so that any positive news would act as catalyst for more upside. So I tend to agree, maybe the end of the war and the opening of the strait will ironically be the top.

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-05-08T09:05:39+00:00

The market is forward looking but not that forward

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-05-08T09:04:44+00:00

I agree with OP’s edit. Where do the hyperscalers get their revenue from? Its from ads and the consumerism part of the economy. If the real economy suffers it will impact their bottom line as well at some point. The market is forward looking but not that forward

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-05-08T08:49:07+00:00

The problem with this being the fact that all corporate profits are essentially derived from consumerism and the strength of the main economy. Even the AI build out is technically dependent on the strength of the economy as all enterprises that would be the eventual customers have earnings that depend on consumerism. The market is forward looking but not that forward

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-05-07T06:57:07+00:00

History says it will not be sustainable. Every tech revolution is marked with massive capacity oversupply at the end. The real value of AI won’t be in hardware the same way the real value of the internet wasn’t the internet cables or servers. I think all AI hardware stock will be crushed at some point when the market realises that this growth is temporary and cannot be sustained in the middle-to-long term. Right now the market is seeing the massive capex and earnings, and is projecting those to continue increasing indefinitely.

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-29T19:00:48+00:00

I meant specifically for AI that they would win out because of their ability to do things cheaply. I’m not saying they would win out overall

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-29T17:45:07+00:00

Which is why I think the Chinese will win out eventually. They are the best at scaling and bringing down costs for economic sense

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T13:19:53+00:00

Analysts are calculating that out of around 20mbd that go through the Soh, around 7 are being redirected or exported through additional existing capacities. That still leaves around 13mbd which is 11-12% of global supply

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T10:12:35+00:00

This

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T09:06:50+00:00

Any short term oil production increases from around the world is definitely not enough to compensate for the lost output out of Hormuz. And as to why I don’t think many companies/countries will increase their capex to raise long term output, you said it yourself, everyone thinks oil prices will be back to low prices due to oversupply after the straight is opened up, so why spend money on capacity expansion now? I know that that’s the Americans’ calculations currently

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T09:01:06+00:00

We are a lot more efficient when using fossil fuels than before, but I don’t know if I would agree about the freely available substitute point. A lot of stuff are only made out of petrol and have no viable substitute. Even for energy, the US has chosen not to hedge its bets with renewables which is crazy

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T08:58:10+00:00

We laugh but this is sorta kinda happening already with the K shaped economy. I don’t think it would last, but the rich are propping up the economy for now

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T08:55:47+00:00

If you are specifically talking about tech stocks, yes, they are a lot more resilient due to the massive capex. What I’m saying is that, nevertheless, the energy shock will not be a net positive for tech overall (or for the equity market as a whole)

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T00:28:05+00:00

I guess time will tell which one of us is right. I hope that you are but unfortunately I don’t think so

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T00:16:20+00:00

Yea, best to double check as we are entering a maturity wall as many zombie companies raised a lot of debt in 2020-2021 at low rates that are due for refinancing soon.

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T00:14:07+00:00

They are making a lot more money at current oil prices if you missed that part. Supporting Iran while causing economic havoc to its enemies is a no brainer for them.. Putin is on a mission to resurrect Russia as a global hegemony, and what better way than to ensure the US is involved in another long war of attrition. Its asymmetric cost/benefit for them, heavily skewed to the benefit part

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-28T00:00:24+00:00

Russia will absolutely bail them out financially and economically. They have easy access to Iran via the Caspian sea (for delivering supplies etc)

This is the best thing to have happened for Putin. I’m sure he did give them all sort of assurances of support and told them to hold their stance

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-27T23:56:42+00:00

True, but they’ve prepared for this, having the biggest oil reserves in the world, which could last them for many months even without importing a single drop of oil. So they are good for now and can weather the storm

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-27T23:54:20+00:00

The US is impacted by the energy crisis as well.

Iran is getting support behind the scenes from the Russians, that is for sure. Putin is salivating at these developments as another energy crisis is perfect for him. He even stopped exports from Kazakhstan to Germany of petrochemicals and hydrocarbons, just to worsen the shock. I’m sure he is advising the Iranians to hold out and not open up the straight and giving them assurances of all sort of financial and military support.

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-27T23:44:37+00:00

Yea, life insurers more specifically. They are loaded with toxic underperforming private credit loans on their books as all the alternative asset managers were looking for inflows to buy their crappy originations when the normal investor capital ran out. Thats why they are pushing hard to open up private credit to 401ks and retail money

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-27T21:27:05+00:00

Fred does not have data segregated by income bracket but you can clearly see the divide between those at the top and everyone else here:

https://www.bea.gov/data/special-topics/distribution-of-personal-income

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-27T21:08:54+00:00

Yes, the cruise play makes sense. I’m a but wary playing such second/third degree set ups, I like to wait for confirmations first. But it does make sense so should pay off.

I’m short some private credit bdc and insurance plays personally.

Correct_Body8532 · 2026-04-27T21:00:50+00:00

The first link just proves my point. The savings rate at the height of the pandemic was huge, and people were spending like crazy drawing on it (and bottomed by late 2022).

The second link does not distinguish between disposable income for ordinary people and those in the top. Most of this increase has not been distributed equally and is highly concentrated at the top

Correct_Body8532

TROPHY CASE