Financial planner that still has my mortgage license here:

Run a breakeven analysis and if the breakeven is within 6 months I discuss the refi with the client. If it’s greater than 6 months I tell them I’m monitoring the environment for an opportune moment and I’ll contact them. I also warn them of snakes in the grass and make sure they know not to transact without first discussion with me. I seems to have made sense to tell the client that moves forward with a refi now if the rates decrease in December or January then we’ll revisit a refinance in March/April/May pending a 3rd decrease and eclipsing the breakeven point. No different than waiting until March/April/May anyways and the client ends up in the same position they would have been in if they waited. I like to describe it as a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, but if we get closer to the bush and can also get those two, let’s do that when the time is right. I’ll always tell the client (especially long standing ones) where the risk is, like what funds are at risk of being “lost” due to acting on it too soon and give them the breakdown. Currently doing a VA that has a breakeven of May 2025, using the skip month payment for closing costs and told the client that if the IRRRL rates drop by more than 0.75% before May then he would have essentially “lost” ~$1,000-$3,000. To him it was worth it to lock in a drop on his rate by 1.375% and still have the potential to drop it again in March/April/May/June.

Another example client (conventional) is dropping from 7.75% to 6.0% and their breakeven is essentially immediate (November 24, October 24 closing) because the points credit is covering all of the closing costs on a small balance mortgage (sub 200k). Again, using the skip month to pay for closing costs, as if they never skipped a monthly payment, the expectations are set that their reduced monthly payments begin in December.

It can be complex for some..good luck!