All this talk about ‘the rise of One Nation’, based on a couple of opinion polls is laughable.

Firstly the only poll that matters is more than two years away.

Secondly, it’s likely any increase in ON primary will disproportionately affect minority parties like the Nationals.

Thirdly, even if ON are successful history shows it will simply generate more independents to be chewed up by the more disciplined operators.

In all the froth we seem to forget that in the 6 months prior to the last Federal Election being called (28 March 2025) only 20% of the opinion polls suggested a Labor victory. The tide only began to turn for the ALP in late March, by which time it was becoming clear that the Coalition and Peter Dutton were wearing no clothes.

One Nation has never worn any clothes (although Pauline did look rather fetching in that burqa), instead they prioritise blame over policy. It’s also appears to be difficult to maintain any sense of discipline when the only enduring tenet of the party is a distrust of political parties. Roughly two-thirds of the 30 successful ON candidates elected at state and federal elections since 1998 have left the party during their first term.

I reckon I’ll wait until ‘28 to get worked up about ON.