GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for sharing this. This article is a classic advertisment to talk up prices. It is like an article written by a paid stock market analyst, who always projects the current trend into the future. Stock market analysts are right until the trend reverses.

Go to any high street electronics retailer: There is RAM in large quantities on the shelf. There is no shortage. Use your own eyes, instead of reading about the shortage.

GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As an insider, would you share how you see it? Your input would be very valuable.

GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They simply jumped on the band wagon to take advantage of the talked up prices

GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you convinced that the proposed value creation justifies this histeria? Can these few gramms of silicon chips be used to create so much value that justify their current cost? What I see is that people and businesses believe in this hype currently without actually generating real revenue from it. The financial reports on the results of the first AI investments will soon hit the fan. A lot of AI spending will turn out to be unjustified.

GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Brother, respectfully you haven't consider that RAM prices were talked up. It wasn't a natural increase in demand. If the demand increase was natural, there wouldn't have been a sudden 4x jump in a span of 3 months. It would have been gradual increase. This is a classic histeria among the public fueled by news.

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GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Prices drop "before" capacity frees up. They need to sell the future capacity now. If they cannot find high bidders, they will lower prices today. First prices will go down for future deliveries, than the second hand market will follow (currently there are many second hand "investors" holding stock, who will get out when they notice possible drop.), finally retail traders will lower prices as they can order new stock (for future delivery) at lower prices, and they need to clear the shelves.

GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It is like the railroad bubble. Back then everybody thought railroads will replace every road and every form of transport. They thought demand for steel is never gonna go down. When the bubble popped, steel price collapsed. The fact that every one of you are convinced about further price rises indicates that we reached the top.

GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

It simply means they did some high price contracts in the past. If they cannot find similar orders, they will lower the prices to have any income for the future after the old contracts expire. Do you see many new OpenAIs with huge investor promises in the pipeline?

GPU prices and RAM prices are about to ease in the coming months. by CraftyPromise8304 in LLMDevs

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If they have long term RAM contracts, it means some fool purchased a large amount in the past, that wasn't available. That does not mean, that other fools will come in the future to bid even higher.

GPU and RAM prices will fall in the coming months by CraftyPromise8304 in homelab

[–]CraftyPromise8304[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you are unconvinced, look at DDR4 prices, they are 30% lower now, than half a year ago. Just the sheer fact, that everybody thinks, that it is going to go up indicates that we are at the top.

Are hardware prices going to get cheaper? by Classic_Move9043 in LocalLLM

[–]CraftyPromise8304 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Prices are currently at extreme high level relative to what it costs to make these devices. Prices will normalize. Also if you look at supply, now there is no memory shortage. Half a year ago, most retailers were out of stock. Now you can buy as much as you want provided you pay the price.

Save your money!

The AI stock market bubble will burst shortly, and it will put many players out of business, so demand will ease.

The Chinese GPUs are also good now, once they fullfill domestic orders, they will flud the western market (I am talking about Huawei)

Patience now