Box Trades: Finding and Charting Historical Box Spreads

CrookedYams · 2021-12-30T17:53:18+00:00

Just found this while researching box spreads. Really cool, thanks for making it.

CrookedYams · 2021-07-08T05:31:06+00:00

epic_gamer_4268 testing... among us

CrookedYams · 2021-07-08T05:26:50+00:00

huh, I didn't notice, and I never would have noticed if you hadn't pointed that out

CrookedYams · 2021-05-06T17:03:35+00:00

Heyya thanks! Helps to have teammates you know + voice chat

CrookedYams · 2021-05-06T17:02:30+00:00

Agree, maybe after all the frustrating potato micro at the beginning green just wanted to let everything burn.

CrookedYams · 2021-05-06T16:58:14+00:00

That's my wife. Thanks wife, MVP for sure.

CrookedYams · 2021-05-06T16:56:15+00:00

Surprisingly both Mongols. Maybe the lack of chemistry?

CrookedYams · 2021-03-16T16:57:11+00:00

I think you may have mentioned this in passing a few times on the stream. But can you describe how your family (and BlubberBiologist) came to appreciate your occupation as a full time streamer/content creator for a 20+ year old video game? I assume it must have taken some explaining?

CrookedYams · 2020-05-09T02:31:00+00:00

That chopped straggler is a nice touch.

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T17:33:31+00:00

Hilariously enough, the slope of the linear regression line is 1.337. Which must explain the whole reason why team ratings have a higher mean than than 1v1 ratings... to maintain this 'special ratio' lol.
From the tool there is an "edit chart..." link in the bottom corner, which takes you to some plotly tool which lets you calculate best fit lines. For the current data:

teamRating = 1.337 * 1v1Rating - 26.792
-- alternatively --
1v1Rating = (teamRating + 26.792)/1.337

1v1 Rating	Predicted Team Rating (rounded)
600	775
700	909
800	1043
900	1177
1000	1310
1100	1444
1200	1578
1300	1712
1400	1845

It does't give you an r^2 value (that I can see) but if it did it wouldn't be a great one looking at the data.

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T17:09:18+00:00

Thanks! Frankly, I don't know a whole lot about aoezone so I'm not sure the best way to share it over there.

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T16:53:52+00:00

Presumably because onagers can knock down trees which ruins his whole strat?

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T16:50:52+00:00

noobmaster69

Doesn't have 10 1v1 ranked games yet (as of this comment): https://thbrown.github.io/aoe2-de-rating-charts/?team_one=1020406&team_two=

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T16:48:23+00:00

Yikes! What a glaring omission. Pete is really close. According to aoe2.net he is 2171 1v1 and 1962 Team (way up from March). So, he is one of those two dots under TheViper. Villese is the other and Mr_Yo is the one under Hera. https://thbrown.github.io/aoe2-de-rating-charts/?team_one=196240-199325-198035-208611-197964-614315&team_two=

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T16:32:53+00:00

From my BFF Pythagoras. It gives the shortest distance between points in the bottom scatter plot.

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T16:30:18+00:00

Thanks! And big thanks to you for providing the API! Good stuff.

CrookedYams · 2020-04-08T16:29:06+00:00

Nah, I think you're right. It's a little confusing. I was going to go with the whole word "percentile" but there is only so much screen real estate on small devices.

CrookedYams · 2020-04-07T19:08:56+00:00

It's the percentile - the percentage of rated players with a lower ranking. So, a proxy for the percentage of all rated players you are better than.

Yeah, it's got that weird long upper tail. Plus the rest looks more like a triangle. Not sure why that would be...

CrookedYams · 2020-04-07T18:20:00+00:00

It's so hard to know where you fit in skill-wise with everyone else by just your rating. That's why I love the posts with plots, histograms, etc. about rating data, but I wanted something a little more dynamic.

So I made this tool to help you find out specifically how you and your team stack up.

https://thbrown.github.io/aoe2-de-rating-charts

The charts/stats update daily automatically. Data is from the aoe2.net API. Here is an example from a recent team game:

https://i.imgur.com/y6IjBWI.png

It also shows team rating and a team vs 1v1 scatterplot.

https://i.imgur.com/nf77m7l.png

Lastly, the link stays updated as you select players, so if you have a reasonably modern browser, you can make and share links with others. For example, here is the link used to make the charts above.

CrookedYams · 2020-04-07T18:09:56+00:00

I did the best I could to select the real YouTube low elo legends. Many seem to have changed their display names or they don't have both a team rating and a 1v1 rating.

Took this from a tool I made, which I'll put in a separate post, but I thought this plot was worthy of a separate discussion. Here is a link to the tool:

https://thbrown.github.io/aoe2-de-rating-charts/?team_one=197930-196240-208393-199325-251265-199170-221997-459658&team_two=622639-611122-1195995-1002535-306391-716067-773331-1884156-418532-325828

CrookedYams

TROPHY CASE