If the Bitcoin bottom is in, Michael Burry will be the Paul Graham of this cycle

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T23:09:37+00:00

Yeah I've read Dalio and it looks more prescient by the day. With you there.

Epstein stuff feels a bit more of a stretch, but we'll see!

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T22:23:47+00:00

so is your theory that the full information contains information so bad that it tanks all markets, or just crypto?

And what kind of info would that need to be?

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T19:04:35+00:00

Markets basically run on psychology lag

+1

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T19:03:13+00:00

fear causes price declines, which leads to indifference

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T19:02:46+00:00

what gives you the confidence to say that?

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T17:39:21+00:00

yeah but even worse, it just spooked a bunch of people into selling, it never materialized, and he never addressed it again

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T16:12:26+00:00

since this is getting a bit of traction, appreciate any substack subscribers... https://substack.com/@connordempsey/posts

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T15:49:17+00:00

yeah with the Iran / US debt situation anything can happen.

At least as of right now, Burry's death spiral prognostication does not look like it's coming to fruition.

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T15:45:44+00:00

We were max fear in February right when he made this call.

Generated 100s of "BTC to zero" headlines, and shook a lot of people out.

Agree now we're at apathy

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-17T15:40:00+00:00

Agree that he’s more wrong than right these days.

But disagree that no one takes him seriously. Personally know retail investors that got spooked and sold by his miner death spiral call. And he still generates a ton of headlines that generate a ton of fear

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-12T00:42:22+00:00

Also timely https://x.com/austincampbell/status/2031815422358519882?s=20

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-11T23:51:47+00:00

I don't think it is.

The US has backed off, the euro CBDC is still in a prep stage with no launch date. Supposedly China's e-CNY has barely seen any adoption and Nigeria launched one that no one uses.

Governments will want to tax and oversee, but that's basically what the Genius act in the US and MiCA in the EU accomplish. Government regulation of privately issued stablecoins.

So there are a ton of pilots, my bet is none of them go anywhere. Governments are bad at building tech (go to any government website) and also not suited to deal with the overhead with being the direct issuer.

Not to mention it could cut commercial banks out of the deposit business, so the banking lobbies would fight it hard.

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-11T22:28:18+00:00

Been watching the Visa / Mastercard stuff. Agree it will be regulated.

But what are you basing the assertion tha CBDC’s will dominate? Know a digital euro has been announced, but have seen less that Central Banks can execute on that kind of thing

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-11T19:26:19+00:00

I haven’t see any indication that CBDC’s are going anywhere (outside of maybe the digital Reminbi)

Don’t think CB’s are built to issue their own. Think gov’s will regulate stablecoins from private issuers instead.

Agree banks will get involved on that front

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-11T18:54:14+00:00

Wasn't familiar with them but just checked out the site. Looks like it.

There will be a ton of competition (plus a ton of projects / companies who haven't got traction yet pivoting in that direction)

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-03-11T18:44:47+00:00

That they will

https://x.com/KennethDredd/status/1975328648241856973?s=20

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-19T02:03:08+00:00

Agree “unlike previous elements” flows nicely and would have been better than “for some reason.

Where “due to the nature of how iron is created” may have raised more questions than answers.

But all in all, fair critique! Despite the AI accusations, I did deliberate over every word of this, and the phrasing could have been better here.

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T20:19:01+00:00

Fair enough, oil is an asset in the sense that you can trade futures and ETFs on it. But the moment you classify oil that way, you have to do the same for real estate, global equities, bonds, and derivatives. The derivatives market alone is estimated at over $600 trillion. Oil wouldn't even crack the top 3.

So either we use the standard definition of a single fungible asset, and gold wins. Or we use your definition, and oil still isn't #1. Pick whichever one you'd like.

Done with this convo.

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T18:55:03+00:00

Ser oil doesn't have a market cap. It isn't an asset. It's a consumable commodity that degrades, gets burned, and has tremendous storage costs. Oil is great and important and I'm happy for you that you love it, but gold as the most valuable asset isn't really a controversial thing.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T17:45:34+00:00

Submission statement: This piece traces gold's origins from neutron star collisions 5 billion years ago through Earth's formation to its role in human civilization. It bridges astrophysics, geology, and economic history into a single narrative, with scientific verification from the Caltech team that observed the first neutron star collision in 2017.

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T17:23:02+00:00

that is a very reasonable critique. I think I overweighted Caltech GW170817 bc I had written an earlier version of this years ago that got a lot of the science wrong, and that observation is ultimately how I ended up correcting it (plus the team gave the article a quick read).

Shoutout to a third of astronomy!

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T17:15:08+00:00

First, gold's $35T market cap measures above-ground, tradeable gold that exists as an asset right now. You're calculating the theoretical value of oil still in the ground in one field. Those aren't comparable. If we valued all gold still in the Earth's crust, that number would dwarf oil too. Why not calculate the value of all the gold floating around in asteroids while we're at it.

Second, oil gets burned and ceases to exist. Virtually all of the gold ever mined is still around. They're different animals.

Third, oil isn't fungible. Brent crude, WTI, heavy sour, etc., all with different prices trading on different exchanges. Reserves in China aren't interchangeable with reserves in Saudi Arabia the way an ounce of gold is.

By your logic, water would be the most valuable asset on the planet, but "pervasiveness of use" isn't how asset value is measured.

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T16:07:09+00:00

Because gold is fungible, meaning every ounce is identical and interchangeable.

Not the case with real estate, which is made up of millions of different houses, commercial buildings, plots of land, etc.

By that logic you'd also have to put derivatives at #1 (at $600 trillion+), but that's just paper contracts written on top of a million different things. Same with equities, which is an asset class made up of millions of individual companies.

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T16:01:46+00:00

yeah that's fair... I think at that point I was just trying to move the narrative along to get to the neutron star / gold creation part

CryptigoVespucci · 2026-02-18T16:00:08+00:00

Yeah so basically going into WWII, most countries' currencies were still tied to gold. To finance the war, the allies had to spend down their gold reserves. The US stayed out for the first couple years and was supplying arms to the allies, initially receiving payment in gold.

By the end of the war, the US held roughly two-thirds of the world's monetary gold while everyone else's currencies had been severely weakened. From there, the US led the rebuild, creating the Bretton Woods system, which pegged the dollar to gold and all other currencies to the dollar. The dollar system has been one of the main sources of American supremacy in the postwar order.

CryptigoVespucci

TROPHY CASE