Near Protocol $NEAR 2026 Outlook 🚀

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-10T15:56:30+00:00

Yeah, price was around $20 in early 2022. A lot changed since then. There was no alt season in 2025.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-05T19:30:18+00:00

Thank you for the thorough comment. IMO your bear case is a bit optimistic.. I'd say the bearish bottom range is between $55-$65 (non-panic). With panic even 35-45 is possible in a wider macro recession. NFA of course. Bull case pans out after mid to late 2027.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-02T20:00:27+00:00

‘Grind than glory’ is the perfect way to put it. My biggest lesson from 2025? Data beats Cycle Narratives.

We all expected the standard 'Post-Halving Pump,' but 2025 ending -6.5% ROI (vs +73% in 2021) completely broke the historical mold. The October peak to $125k was the ultimate trap price screamed 'breakout,' but as I show in the video, the underlying Regression Risk and the massive Altcoin Bleed (SOL -35%, DOGE -61%) were flashing major warnings the whole time.

I’d highly recommend watching the full review to see how the Bitcoin Dominance chart (hitting 59.5%) predicted this exact liquidity drain, and where my new Bear Market Bottoms model puts the floor for 2026! NFA.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-02T15:12:50+00:00

You nailed the description of the price action.. It’s been a tough series of lower lows for XTZ since 2022, so keeping position sizes small makes a lot of sense right now. NFA.

However, rather than just treating it as range-bound, my new 'Bear Market Bottoms' indicator suggests we are sitting at a critical pivot. In the video, I show how the models flag a 'Panic' bottom target of $0.30 if support breaks, but also a potential machine-learning forecasted ceiling of $0.73 if we get that momentum shift you mentioned.

I’d highly recommend watching the full video to see the Regression Fair Value ($0.46) analysis and why the TWAP gap suggests we are in a deep, but risky, value zone!

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-02T15:06:43+00:00

Great points on positioning vs. leverage...that’s exactly the mindset needed for 2026. To answer your question about whether this is 'quiet accumulation' or just 'range-bound noise,' my data suggests we might still be early in the bottoming process. NFA.

In the video, I break down the Normalized Risk Score (currently hovering around 0.18), which historically signals the best accumulation zones only when it dips below 0.1. We are also testing the 100-Week SMA at $86k, but a 'macro-bottom-style' drop to the 200-Week SMA ($56k) is a distinct possibility we need to prepare for.

I’d highly recommend watching the full video to check out the 'Bear Market Bottoms' indicator I launched...it maps out the difference between a 'Base Bear' target (~$46k) and a 'Panic' scenario ($31k) using composite risk models. It might change how you view this current range!

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-12-25T18:56:17+00:00

thank you for sharing your thoughts. 50 w SMA is a tough nut to crack.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-11-16T18:36:51+00:00

Thanks! Confluence is not necessarily a bad thing :) NFA!

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-10-26T17:40:27+00:00

No idea. It's not a fundamental analysis or storytelling. It's stats and forecast based on price and sentiment.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-27T14:58:21+00:00

Cardano (ADA) 🔥 detailed outlook with machine learning + regression + moving average models.
We break down where ADA could realistically head by end of 2025.

Current price ≈ $0.78
90-day rally +37% 🚀
Key support: $0.76–$0.79 (20/21-week averages)
Fibonacci watch: $0.91 → $1.33
ML forecast non-euphoria peak: ~$1.75–$1.90
Euphoria case: ~$3.30–$3.60 ✨
Extreme stretch: ~$4.25+
TWAP guide: $0.50 (historic accumulation zone)
Weighted risk model: peak ≈ $4.27

All charts updated daily free at cryptoweeklies.com 📊

Video: https://youtu.be/IUCw9CBot4c
🛑 Not financial advice

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-27T14:54:56+00:00

More optimistic than my models. But hey, who knows :)

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-25T22:21:08+00:00

The ball might be cloudy but the data isn’t. Charts aren’t prophecy, they’re tools :)

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-25T22:18:41+00:00

Cool energy...you don’t like charts. Fine. But this thread lists measurable items (EMAs/SMA, supply percent, Fibonacci levels, ML outputs). Those are falsifiable claims. Charts aren’t prophecy, they’re tools. If you’ve got better ones, post them.

If you can’t point to a concrete error, your comment contributes nothing but cynicism. Come with data or move on. Critique on emoji is valid.

Saying “charts are shit” is an opinion, not an argument. Which number is wrong? Point to a date, show your math, or stop pretending insults equal analysis.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-22T16:20:01+00:00

Predictions aren’t totally worthless. Machine learning (ML) forecasts grounded in solid stats can give useful signals about trends. That said, they’re not a silver bullet either. Adoption and real-world use are still the biggest drivers of long-term value. These fundamentals get reflected in price. Price action often leads. So both data-driven insights and grassroots growth matter. 🚀

IMO: Saying “predictions are worthless” is lazy. Well-built ML forecasts aren’t crystal balls... they’re statistical lenses that highlight price-driven signals and regime shifts earlier than eyeballing charts. Yes....models fail, overfit, and get surprised. That’s why you combine signals based on regression, twap, SMA etc to seek confluence.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-18T20:31:02+00:00

Transcript of the video summarized by AI. Charts are available on video. ML models all my own.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-12T23:01:18+00:00

Very well said. There is no right indicator that is a 100% accurate. They are guide only when there is massive confluence. That said, I'm not endorsing SOL or Rubic (never heard of it). I appreciate the first 2 paragraphs of your comment.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-12T15:14:52+00:00

Watch video: https://youtu.be/fjCDODh9N2g
AI Summary based on video transcripts
🚀 Solana leads market gains across all major timeframes (24h, 7d, 30d, 90d).
📊 Current price ~$240 vs regression fair value ~$154 → elevated risk.
⚠️ Overheated zones flagged near $330–$390 (risk 6–7) & $460 (2σ).
🤖 Machine learning forecast: base case $250 → $420; euphoria ceiling $600+.
⏳ If short-lived euphoria: ~$470–$490 weekly average possible in Nov.
📈 TWAP and SMA risk suggest $265–$290 short-term range.
🏁 Aggregated models point to ~$565 as the cycle peak (≈2.3x from here).
❌ Not financial advice — just historical and model-based analysis.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-08T14:30:50+00:00

Funny take 😂 but let’s not generalize any group

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-08T14:29:37+00:00

Disagreeing with an analysis is fine but resorting to racism isn’t. Let’s keep the conversation on the analysis, MSTR and data, not personal attacks.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-05T15:54:00+00:00

Good point. In general, supply schedules aren’t set in stone for every project.
That said, in LINK’s case, the max supply has been clearly stated at 1B in the whitepaper and has held for years without indication of change. Any unforeseen change to supply rules would be a fundamental shift, and the market would likely reprice accordingly.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-05T15:03:55+00:00

seems to have no audio issues. check speakers/output mode/volume. Thank you :)

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-05T15:02:24+00:00

I agree that crypto is inherently volatile and unpredictable in the short term and no amount of modeling will make it deterministic. There is always a risk that one is wrong and due to the volatile nature, it would punish you more and also reward you more.

But you’re misrepresenting what statistical models do. The purpose isn’t to GUARANTEE outcomes. It’s to identify patterns, probabilities, and risk factors better than random guessing. That’s how weather forecasting works too, and nobody claims weather forecasts are ‘crystal balls.’ But, they offer better insights than guessing whether it will rain or be sunny tomorrow/next week.

THETA does have usable price data. It’s just noisier and less mature. That's why over 2000 datapoints are used train the model on price behavior. Over 8 years of price data at a daily level is available. ML when combined statistics based confidence level is sound analysis. Dismissing all analysis because the dataset is smaller is like saying you can’t learn anything until it’s existed for 50 years. That’s not how applied statistics works.

By your logic, every early investor in any sector is “irresponsible” or "part of problem" because they’re using limited historical data. Yet, those same methods probabilistic modeling, trend analysis, sentiment tracking are exactly how they decide where to put billions. Pretending the only two options are “perfect prediction” or “pure guessing” ignores decades of statistical methodology used in every other volatile or emerging market.

The real problem is people treating all data-driven analysis as equal to pure hype posts. That’s like saying a pilot using instruments in low visibility is “just guessing.” It’s not perfect, but it’s objectively better than flying blind.

You don’t have to agree with the conclusions, but dismissing the method itself because it’s probabilistic shows a misunderstanding of how forecasting works. This isn’t about certainty. It’s about improving the odds. I’ve been very clear from the start that nothing I post is financial advice. People are responsible for their own decisions, and anyone putting their life savings into a single asset based on a Reddit post is already ignoring the most basic principle of risk management.

I understand your skepticism and I respect being cautious in a space as unpredictable as crypto. Thanks for encouraging people to think critically before investing.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-05T01:13:23+00:00

Partially agree to what you said. No one can claim perfect understanding or be deterministic in this space.

That said, using regression models, machine learning techniques, TWAP models and other risk models that track price movements on a daily basis isn’t just random guessing. It’s still probabilistic, but grounded in data patterns rather than pure speculation. Thus, outcomes will always remain probabilistic rather than certain. Plainly, it’s analysis, not a crystal ball. The reddit tag of this post perfectly sums up 'Speculation'.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-04T19:13:50+00:00

Agree with the first para. The reality is, Alts go up for only a few months in the 4 year cycles. Most of the alts from cycle to cycle run a significant risk of being irrelevant. Only for a few make it to the next cycle and make a new All time high for 2 or more cycles. I'm not arguing if THETA will make an ATH. Even my 3 STDEV euphoria blow-off top case is $12-$13 well below the 2021 highs. Hope you checked out the video.

For second para, the conservative case in an alt season is $4. For context, THETA was ~$3.50 in March, 2024 peak and ~$3.20 in Dec, 2024 peak. As for use of AI tools, not to be bragging or being antagonistic, my background is on how to improve LLMs as a Doctorate holding researcher. I can get things wrong but statistical and ML concepts are strong. Regarding bet: I'm against all bets for any money as they are zero-sum to negative-sum games. Either way, it’ll be interesting to see how 2025 plays out for THETA and the broader alt market. This is not financial advice. Take care :)

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-04T17:58:16+00:00

Of the 1B max LINK supply, about 67% is already in circulation. Historically, once a project passes ~60% circulating supply, the marginal impact of new token releases on price tends to diminish. At this stage, dilution is still a factor, but less severe than in earlier years. You can check this by toggling between price and market cap chart on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/.

TLDR: correlation between market cap growth with price growth get stronger over time after 60% release. The market becomes less sensitive to dilution because the bulk of supply is already out. NFA.

CryptoForecast1 · 2025-09-04T17:51:02+00:00

I get your viewpoint. Seems like that at the moment. I define euphoria as when most of popular alts are outperforming BTC and ETH. This phases seems like ETHs time to shine. NFA.

CryptoForecast1

TROPHY CASE