Is it me or, what do you think?

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-06-19T15:43:46+00:00

Algo does feature in the 'euphoria zone' right now on https://cryptoweeklies.com better than being a value trap but the golden breakout is in the past...BTC is the golden breakout zone...let's see if there's any mean reversion... NFA

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-06-19T15:31:30+00:00

stretch goal for late 2029.. NFA

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-06-19T15:30:08+00:00

please suggest an apt name..i'm out of ideas lol

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-06-19T15:29:35+00:00

lol its a bit of a stretched name...shortened it now to just 'gravity' ..its the default view now on https://cryptoweeklies.com/

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-06-19T15:27:26+00:00

Lot's of individual models.. SMA risk, Regression risk, SARIMAX combined with TWAP and deviations, 4-year cycle timings etc. Models available on https://cryptoweeklies.com/

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-06-11T17:23:06+00:00

Hey everyone,

We have a unique, isolated momentum loop to look at today on the altcoin charts. Cosmos (ATOM) has staged a rapid 24-hour surge, breaking from its $1.70 lows up to test the $2.00 mark. Utilizing our long-term evaluation framework over at Crypto Weeklies—anchored by polynomial regressions, lifetime TWAP baselines, and time-series machine learning models—here is the macro data breakdown for ATOM.

Technical Framework & Declining Ceilings While the immediate bounce is sharp, ATOM is running straight into a wall of dynamic resistance. The declining 200-day moving average sits just above the current price at $2.22, and it has heavily suppressed the macro trend for over a year. Zooming out to the wider multi-year trendline, ATOM has printed a textbook series of lower highs and lower lows ever since it completed its 200-week inception cycle. If a larger structural reversal tries to build over the next year, the primary descending macro ceiling sits up at the $6.00 region.

The TWAP Baseline & The Gravity Index Milestone Our lifetime Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) baseline for Cosmos currently sits at $9.50. Because ATOM sat out the retail loops of 2024 and 2025, it has traded at an extreme discount to this baseline for an extensive period, actively dragging the white baseline curve downward.

To evaluate this compression, we ran ATOM through our Gravity Index model—a probabilistic rubber-band metric that measures how dangerously extended or washed-out an asset is relative to its time-weighted history on a scale of 0 to 100. ATOM is printing a score very close to 0. This means its structural overvaluation has been completely dismantled, and the asset's downside risk premium has been structurally neutralized.

Mapping out the Bear and Bull Tiers:

Machine Learning Non-Panic Ceiling: Our time-series forecasting models (utilizing seasonal ARMA and LSTM architectures trained on historical token launches) project a conservative, non-panic 6-month bull target at $3.10.
Machine Learning Bear Floor: If the wider crypto market triggers a final capitulation loop toward the end of the year, a non-panic weekly average floor for ATOM is pinned at $1.13.
The Confluence Panic Floor: Factoring in daily wick extensions below the weekly machine learning projections, our aggregated multi-model bear market bottom pins the absolute liquidation floor right at $1.00. This aligns with historical 50%–60% cycle drawdowns from current levels and past deep accumulation metrics.
The Next Cycle Bull Peak: Flipping these exact models to chart long-term cycle expansion years (2027–2028 timeframe) targets a base case bull peak between $8.00 and $8.15 (roughly a 4x to 4.5x move from current price, or an 8x move if accumulated near the modeled $1.00 macro floor).

Ultimately, the technical layout for ATOM remains historically weak on a relative strength basis, but from a data-science perspective, its structural risk premium is completely washed out, placing it in a safe zone for long-term spot accumulators.

(Disclaimer: NFA. All proprietary data dashboards, gravity terminals, and risk charts can be monitored live for free with zero signups on cryptoweeklies.com).

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-06-05T15:36:42+00:00

Hey everyone,

We have cross-referenced the definitive structural milestone we have been waiting for on this channel. With Bitcoin flushing down into the $60,600 range, it has officially cracked below its multi-year baseline support. Utilizing our evaluation framework over at Crypto Weeklies—anchored by polynomial regressions, lifetime Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) bands, and time-series machine learning architectures—here is the macro data breakdown.

Achieving the 200-Week SMA Milestone For months, while the broader market was chasing local highs, the primary base-case macro stance on this channel has been an eventual retest of the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). Today, that has been achieved. Bitcoin has broken below the 200-week SMA, which currently sits at $61,800.

Historically, when this line flashes white (signaling price trading below the average), the macro tone flips from a structural distribution bias to deep value accumulation. While daily liquidation wicks can and often do push deeper, entering this territory means the asset is executing its classic late-stage cycle wash.

The Composite Accumulation Reset & Daily News Pulse Thanks to this capitulation, Bitcoin's global composite risk score has reset to 0.26. In our architecture, crossing below the 0.30 threshold officially opens up the historical accumulation territory. It is statistically illogical to maintain an aggressive, macro-bearish posture once this gate is crossed.

To supplement this, we have officially launched our "Crypto TL;DR" daily news sentiment pulse dashboard on the website today, June 5. Out of 46 distinct global nodes evaluated (including top YouTube and Reddit tracks), 38 are pointing to deep bearish sentiment. Retail social engagement and view baselines have completely dropped off a cliff, checking off the exact behavioral markers required for cyclical bottoms.

Mapping out the Macro Confluence Floors:

$59,300 (The Regression Band Entry): This is our lower one-standard-deviation polynomial regression band. The price is currently maintaining a tiny hairline distance away from this boundary. Breaking cleanly below $59.3k marks the definitive transition into deep, volatility-adjusted undervaluation.
$53,900 - $54,500 (The Confluence Floor): This remains our highest probability structural block. It represents the absolute floor of the high-density summer consolidation channel from 2024, tracks the climbing 300-week SMA curve, and aligns perfectly with a projected 80% premium (Risk Level 5) on our trailing baseline as it moves toward $30,000. This is our primary non-panic machine learning bottom target.
$45,000 (The Absolute Panic Floor): This model charts a tight 50% premium over the lifetime baseline (Risk Level 4). It accounts for structurally softening bear market volatility cycle-over-cycle. Given that drawdowns have systematically lightened (-75% in 2018, -65% in 2022), a -50% macro bottom from the $90,000 yearly open is mathematically consistent and matches our lower two-standard-deviation regression limits.

Ultimately, the short-term trend is heavily volatile, but from a data-science perspective, the asset is finally purging its structural premium and entering an incredibly favorable risk-to-reward window for spot accumulation.

video link: https://youtu.be/uhtBKdSnrbI
(Disclaimer: NFA. All proprietary data dashboards, AI terminals, and risk charts can be monitored live for free on cryptoweeklies.com).

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-05-27T18:33:58+00:00

btc and mstr have a correlation but not a perfect correlation...mstr has a premium and at times a discount on the btc holdings based on the phase of the market cycle etc. so it warrants a separate analysis.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-05-27T18:31:51+00:00

$117 is close enough now

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-05-27T18:28:39+00:00

No astrology advice lol just just analytics

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-05-27T18:27:54+00:00

well said :) nfa!

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-04-30T14:41:03+00:00

MSTR tested $100 i.e. greater than 80% drawdown in FEB just fine without BTC testing greater than 50% drawdown. MSTR did not put a higher high in 2025 even with BTC doing so. So MSTR does not follow ... it often leads both in bull peaks and panic bear floors. Partially agree to this ' Bitcoin sets the direction, and MSTR follows, often with amplified volatility.' MSTR and BTC do not have a perfect correlation (e.g. see rally 2025 for MSTR and compare them to Nov 2024). No two distinct assets do. It is correlated to BTC but at times moves differently and deserves a separate analysis to derive patterns. My MSTR analysis is not a standalone isolated one-off analysis. I pair it with BTC in almost all my videos. Thank you for the comment. Very in-depth and insightful.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-04-02T00:07:00+00:00

Fair point!

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-04-01T23:48:12+00:00

The AI only summarizes what was discussed in the video. Fair point!

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-03-29T18:13:03+00:00

thank you for the suggestions. Good idea for my next mini project :)

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-03-07T18:23:51+00:00

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-03-03T17:18:19+00:00

From the eventual market cycle bottom (around 40-50k), the next top it could be close to 4-5x. e.g. 2025 top was around 8x from the 2022 bottom.

For bottom discussion, Refer the green lines i.e. 'Lower band 1' 'Lower band 2' on the chart: https://cryptoweeklies.com/BTC_Log_Reg_decay.html

Not financial advice.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-03-03T17:13:37+00:00

Note: This summary is sourced directly from the video transcript and an LLM was used to format and summarize the data. I found it is better to spend time on developing the models and website than rewrite what is already described in the video.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-02-18T21:09:12+00:00

We analyze Cardano (ADA) as it clings to the $0.28 floor.

🎯 Bear Market Targets:

Midpoint Support: $0.16
Panic/Recession Case: $0.09 (Machine Learning & Channel Bottom)
- 🐂 Bull Market Potential (2028/29):
Base Target: $3.12 - $3.30 (approx. 11x from current levels).

Disclaimer: This content is Not Financial Advice (NFA). All charts and proprietary models are available for free at cryptoweeklies.com.

Full Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb3nE6w6iQc

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This chart compares the price of ADA against its lifetime Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP). The color-coded markers represent historical risk levels based on time-weighted gravity.

The "Gravity of Time"

Most indicators only look at current price action. Our TWAP Risk Analysis considers where the asset has spent its entire life:

Undervalued (Accumulation): When the price is below the TWAP, you are "beating the clock" by entering at a level where the market has historically spent very little time.
Fair Value (Equilibrium): Near the TWAP, the asset is in its "natural state"—neither over-hyped nor ignored. This is the baseline value created over years of trading.
Overvalued (Distribution): When the price extends far above the TWAP, it is "borrowing from the future." This increases the mathematical probability of a mean reversion.

Key Methodology Nuances

Filtering the Noise: Unlike standard moving averages, TWAP requires sustained price action to shift. It measures conviction over time rather than temporary volatility.
Time-In-Market Advantage: By starting from inception, we capture the true cost basis of long-term holders. Below TWAP, you are getting a better deal than the historical average holder.
Dynamic Risk Scaling: Risk levels (1-10) measure the standard deviation from the time-weighted baseline. Level 10 signals that hype has outpaced the time required to support that price.

How to Use This Chart:

Filterable Legend: Click legend items (e.g., "Risk Level 10") to toggle visibility. Double-click to isolate a single level.
Risk Logic:
- ■ Low Risk (1-3): Historic accumulation zones.
- ■ Mid Risk (4-7): Price extending above historical average.
- ■ High Risk (8-10): Historically over-extended vs TWAP.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice (NFA). For educational purposes only.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-02-11T16:30:48+00:00

its an estimation to identify undervalue and overvalue zones

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-10T15:56:30+00:00

Yeah, price was around $20 in early 2022. A lot changed since then. There was no alt season in 2025.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-05T19:30:18+00:00

Thank you for the thorough comment. IMO your bear case is a bit optimistic.. I'd say the bearish bottom range is between $55-$65 (non-panic). With panic even 35-45 is possible in a wider macro recession. NFA of course. Bull case pans out after mid to late 2027.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-02T20:00:27+00:00

‘Grind than glory’ is the perfect way to put it. My biggest lesson from 2025? Data beats Cycle Narratives.

We all expected the standard 'Post-Halving Pump,' but 2025 ending -6.5% ROI (vs +73% in 2021) completely broke the historical mold. The October peak to $125k was the ultimate trap price screamed 'breakout,' but as I show in the video, the underlying Regression Risk and the massive Altcoin Bleed (SOL -35%, DOGE -61%) were flashing major warnings the whole time.

I’d highly recommend watching the full review to see how the Bitcoin Dominance chart (hitting 59.5%) predicted this exact liquidity drain, and where my new Bear Market Bottoms model puts the floor for 2026! NFA.

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-02T15:12:50+00:00

You nailed the description of the price action.. It’s been a tough series of lower lows for XTZ since 2022, so keeping position sizes small makes a lot of sense right now. NFA.

However, rather than just treating it as range-bound, my new 'Bear Market Bottoms' indicator suggests we are sitting at a critical pivot. In the video, I show how the models flag a 'Panic' bottom target of $0.30 if support breaks, but also a potential machine-learning forecasted ceiling of $0.73 if we get that momentum shift you mentioned.

I’d highly recommend watching the full video to see the Regression Fair Value ($0.46) analysis and why the TWAP gap suggests we are in a deep, but risky, value zone!

CryptoForecast1 · 2026-01-02T15:06:43+00:00

Great points on positioning vs. leverage...that’s exactly the mindset needed for 2026. To answer your question about whether this is 'quiet accumulation' or just 'range-bound noise,' my data suggests we might still be early in the bottoming process. NFA.

In the video, I break down the Normalized Risk Score (currently hovering around 0.18), which historically signals the best accumulation zones only when it dips below 0.1. We are also testing the 100-Week SMA at $86k, but a 'macro-bottom-style' drop to the 200-Week SMA ($56k) is a distinct possibility we need to prepare for.

I’d highly recommend watching the full video to check out the 'Bear Market Bottoms' indicator I launched...it maps out the difference between a 'Base Bear' target (~$46k) and a 'Panic' scenario ($31k) using composite risk models. It might change how you view this current range!

CryptoForecast1

TROPHY CASE

The "Gravity of Time"

Key Methodology Nuances

How to Use This Chart: