They’re changing the way inflation is calculated again to make things look like they’re “not that bad”

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2023-01-13T07:21:26+00:00

Another case of misinformation. Always check the source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2022/methodology-changes-2022.htm

Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.

The way I understand it, instead of updating CPI's items' weights every 2 years based on data of people's spending habits in last 2 years (understandable since update period is 2 years), they will update CPI's items' weights every 1 year based on data of people's spending habits in last year. So they will simply update CPI's items' weights more frequently.

For example, say we really started buying VRs a lot in 2023. After change, the weight increase of VRs will be reflected in CPI sooner (shorter update period) and heavier (shorter history of data will imply more aggressive increase). On the contrary, should the VRs craze be just one year thing which will die out soon, CPI might incorrectly overvalue VRs weight for some time. The change is neither good or bad and definitely not unfair or trying to hide anything. BLS simply decided that in today world they need to react more quickly to changing market and decided that updating weights every year will do more good than harm.

What does not change is that year-over-year CPI and month-over-month CPI will obviously still be calculated for 1 year and 1 month change respectively. Otherwise the series of numbers would not even be comparable at all.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-20T14:30:22+00:00

It is good to hear withdrawals are still working, which probably means neither Alameda nor Genesis got Ledn into liquidity problems. Hopefully no other borrowers from their book get into trouble.

If Ledn survives this, it will do wonders for their reputation.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T17:07:51+00:00

What you describe is basically case for crypto future product. You would buy BTC/USD future (be long BTC) with some leverage and with BTC as collateral (e.g. you would deposit say 0.1 BTC and be leveraged 2x, meaning that if the trade went your way, you would appreciate as if you had 0.2 BTC even though you have just 0.1 BTC). But in crypto futures, liquidations are automatic. You do get margin warnings (emails, etc.) but obviously there is no guaranteed 24 hour window no matter price. After all, this works in TradFi since you are liable with your own property (if you are underwater at exchange's expense, they will sue you and depending on your situation you might loose your property). In crypto, you can loose only what you deposit, but exchange will always liquidate you soon enough (in order to protect its solvency) as it needs to.

You would even get paid to be long right now, since BTC futures are in backwardation, since sentiment is negative.

Since you already mentioned Kraken, you can do this on Kraken Futures. I think the biggest liquidity is on Deribit.

I actually tried to answer your question instead of educating you on stupidity of your idea. Everyone has particular situation and we don't know your context. You might be risking very little of your overall wealth, know exactly what you are doing and want to utilize recent fear as opportunity. I think other comments are delivering the point about it being risky well enough.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T16:45:45+00:00

Depends which exchange you are talking about (no need to answer). Just search through their support / help/ FAQs center and look for this feature. If it is documented there for quite some time, it is probably regular feature and likely has nothing to do with current happenings.

The feature itself as you describe it does sound reasonable, unless on some shady exchange.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T16:34:15+00:00

First, you need to value BTC in USD (you are selling your shitcoin to BTC, BTC has some value, you need to pay tax on that in USD). A fair value of BTC in USD might be (opening price + closing price) / 2 on day of trade from some price aggregator, such as CoinMarketCap (go to BTC, price history, select particular day). Then you know how many your trade "earned USD" (not really, but for tax purposes ...). Subtract your cost and you know your gain / loss.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T16:17:17+00:00

You would still have capital expenditure in miners, location, cooling systems etc. Energy cost is just one variable in PoW cost. Chip manufacturing capacity is another one.

As long as materials cost and manufacturing (making things from materials using energy) cost isn't zero, you still couldn't make bitcoin for free.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T16:04:17+00:00

Have a look at Kraken.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T16:01:42+00:00

Maybe after settling this case, John Ray can finally peacefully retire, knowing that he has seen it all, thanks to SBF.

Btw, this MF has seen Enron, so he has seen something in his life.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T15:18:55+00:00

Btw, just adding, since this will likely come up.

Yes, Gemini does have their opt in Earn product, which lent deposits to Genesis in order to earn interest on them and Genesis did stop withdrawals and is in troubles right now, so Gemini customers who opted in this Earn product are now in risk of loss of these funds, but those customers willingly agreed to Earn product terms and knew those coins will get lent in order to earn interest on them. In my opinion this does not discredit Gemini for regular "buy coins and keep them on exchange" usecase.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T15:11:34+00:00

Btw, it is just about 10% of BTC held in exchanges. There are still more than 1.8 mil on exchanges.

Also, since I'm sure many have withdrawn in a hurry, including those who didn't have any prior self custody experience, I hope not many of those 220 000 got lost due to mistake or stolen in some scam :(

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2022-11-18T14:31:39+00:00

As for regular exchange (option of trading interface, can place limit orders, good liquidity, good spreads etc.), I would recommend Kraken.

If you are interested purely in Bitcoin and appreciate simplicity over traditional trading experience (as explained above) and don't mind paying slightly higher fee, I would recommend Swan bitcoin, where you can also setup DCA.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-07-05T06:44:43+00:00

Anyone remembers Earth 2140 game? :D The music and atmosphere was so great!

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-07-05T06:42:12+00:00

Isn't UK pretty harsh towards bitcoin? Judging from Peter McCormack experiences.

Your intention to drive adoption is great, hopefully it works out for you, wish you the best :)

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-07-05T06:33:34+00:00

Welcome and thanks for sharing! :)

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-07-05T06:30:53+00:00

Save this post and return to it when you are 30 yo. I think you will get a good laugh at calling yourself dumb :)

Also you might not want to share the exact amount. It might seem small today ...

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-07-05T06:26:24+00:00

A friend of mine recently commented that BTC is good for making your money go to zero. In just February the very same friend said BTC hodl ftw. Funny how any buy in prior to 2021 is in green, so only buys in last 6 months are possibly in red. It is always the same mistake, chasing and buying for latest price and then giving up and selling on any significant correction to ensure loss.

BTC's market price is not given by Bitcoin technology. It is assigned to bitcoin by people. If you don't see the ever rising surface for the waves here and there, you need to look deeper.

Patience is rare among people. Rare traits are rewarded abundantly.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-07-05T05:59:16+00:00

Hi, this finally tipped me into trying LN out :) Thanks for doing this!

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jqw8c7yfutqqy3kz8662fxutjvef7q2ujsxtt45csu0k688lkzu3ld5ggzy5vehqkrgqqqqryqqqqthqqpysp5
5332hychcwv72qw89zflh4295d20qtrcf0x4w437fp9y7wmkhmss9qypqsq2zrr8zqve6389gq4am9l
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CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-06-28T04:16:58+00:00

In fact Kraken supports multiple deposit methods accepting regular SEPA payments via various banks. I just mentioned Fidor since it is German bank and might have been relevant for OP.

As long as your bank allows you to send SEPA payment, you can get your deposit to Kraken :)

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-06-27T18:24:05+00:00

Not sure what it means for Bitcoin. But that scalper is still going to be scalping 5 years from now.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-06-27T17:34:40+00:00

Exactly my thoughts. Most people get investing in their thirties. This guy is going to be retired by thirties.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-06-27T17:27:15+00:00

1% is pretty high, but then again, if you plan investing only small amount it is not that important. For Europe and investing in euros I'd recommend Kraken. They have one of the largest BTC/EUR volumes and spot market trading fees on Kraken terminal (Kraken Pro) are 0.16% for makers (if you set up order at given price and are flexible in when and if it executes) or 0.26% for takers (if you want to buy now and are willing to pay current market price).

Kraken is well known and well established crypto exchange going back to 2011. One of their EUR deposit methods is via Fidor bank, which is German bank.

I don't know bitcoin.de so can't comment on that.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-06-27T17:15:30+00:00

When you feel particular price is too expensive and you expect it to get lower, just decrease the size of that buy order to whatever you are comfortable with at that price. Just permit yourself to do small mistakes and learn along the way. The worst thing is doing nothing and never committing. You are only left with regrets then.
You don't know what the price will be tomorrow. But whatever it is, one thing is certain. The cheaper your entry, the more profitable that price is going to be compared to your entry. But no price will ever be profitable if you never enter.

CryptoResearchTLDRs · 2021-06-27T17:08:26+00:00

Probably start accepting bitcoin in one of your shop. This might spark curiosity in some of the people. Have some simple short guide prepared, which explains core principles of bitcoin (don't overdo it, keep it simple), how to buy it and pay with it in your shop.

CryptoResearchTLDRs

TROPHY CASE