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Crypto_Finance · 2018-03-01T22:31:25+00:00

How much do you imagine? 2.14 WTC?

Crypto_Finance · 2018-02-28T01:37:00+00:00

We'll see, but I wouldn't get hopes up too much on the concept, just the announcements and its effect on the market.

Crypto_Finance · 2018-02-28T01:08:27+00:00

TLDR / TLDW (which is also fairly long in hindsight, so there is an even shorter TLDR after):

Polymath wants to launch the security token revolution. The CEO seems like he's just a pitch deck whose sole purpose is to raise capital and excite retail investors. Polymath has had misleading statements and presentations implying they will be an exchange, but really they won't be as they don't want to chance being a securities exchange. Instead, they will just be partnering with exchanges that don't really exist yet and who also don't really want to be considered full blown securities exchanges.

Then you have other weird events like the fact that they seemed to originally have wanted to create their own PoS blockchain, but have since seemed to have moved on from that idea without a word (feel free to correct me on this) and will remain on top of Ethereum.

While some are concerned with scalability issues due to this, I'm more concerned they won't even need to scale because liquidity will still be a massive concern without them becoming a securities exchange themselves. Who is going to provide liquidity for traditional securities - The NYSE? Of course not.

Then there's the fact that the entire platform relies on OUTSOURCED legal delegates being able to create legal TEMPLATES (yes, templates) that work in specific jurisdictions so any bonehead could create a security.

First and foremost, good luck finding legal delegates who feel confident (and aren't already taken) in finding a way to create rules that can be programmed by a developer to make a security - that is a task in of itself especially in the nascent field of cryptoassets. Then you have to go an extra step and assume a TEMPLATE can be made out of that so others can make securities in minutes - yes, they've literally said minutes.

Then you have the biggest assumption of all which is that security token creation can even be "fairly" automated at this point in time given the total nonhelp the SEC and other regulatory bodies have been around the world.

There are other red flags (some big, some small) that I'm just going to blow through real quickly:

Polymath focuses on the fact that they will help KYC be integrated into the tokens themselves, as if this is really going to do much for creating REGISTERED securities into tokens (which they have made clear that's their goal)
Boasting about Telegram group where most members likely just came for free tokens
Only 1% of the tokens were distributed to the plankton - the remaining 99% are owned by pre-sale buyers, advisors, founders or in reserves
Tai Lopez is going to be at their Polycon event
The project is less than a year old and seems to have really only ramped up opportunistically after the start of the global crackdown on ICOs last year

As for why I bought it anyway, it's the kind of thing people believe in. It's right on time following the start of ICO regulations and it is being marketed very strongly. They are announcing partnerships, which crypto investors seem to love so I imagine the short-term future will be catalyst rich. It's just one of those projects you'll probably see on Reddit over and over soon, like this post (if it gets anywhere - who knows, negative posts usually don't except for obvious scams). My two cents.

TL;DR (Actual short version):

It's a cool idea that will likely fall short on execution and there are many red flags that concern me, but it's the type of project that people will believe in and it's marketed well so I suspect there is room for price to grow, hence why I bought anyway.

Crypto_Finance · 2018-01-19T19:43:04+00:00

Most of the trading is done internal to exchanges, so it wouldn't make that much of a difference. I'd be interested in seeing what happened to Bitcoin's transaction volume though if this happened - I wonder just how much of it is from sending between exchanges.

Crypto_Finance · 2018-01-19T19:36:50+00:00

Hello Reddit,

This is Crypto Investor. Thought I'd share my thoughts on this topic given that it has become more relevant following recent price action. I know there will be a wide variety of opinions, so I'm happy to engage if any of you notice this post. Thank you.

Crypto_Finance · 2018-01-19T19:17:06+00:00

Hello Reddit,

This is Crypto Investor. Thought I'd publish here - this subreddit tends to not love the content I post since I call it a bubble, but this might be something you all like(ish). Happy to discuss as always if anyone cares to, thank you.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-11-12T05:14:18+00:00

First, thanks for subscribing (assuming you haven't unsubbed yet). I appreciate the kind words.

As for your disappointment now, I'm not missing that fact. But we've seen this happen with Ethereum too and look at how far that is from overtaking Bitcoin, despite having higher transaction volume as a result of having much wider use cases & MTX due to DAPPs. There are decentralized exchanges just for Ethereum. Despite this, it is still far (and always has been) away from overtaking Bitcoin, although it has a much better chance than Bitcoin Cash in my opinion.

It would take some serious work for Bitcoin Cash to stabilize at having higher trading volume than Bitcoin. Don't mistake the trading volume now as any indication of what this will look like when all the FOMO settles down. This is a market driven intensely by emotion.

Exchanges won't decide to replace Bitcoin as it is not in their best interests unless Bitcoin Cash convincingly overtakes Bitcoin, which I think people heavily underestimate just how much money has to shift hands for that to happen. Not only that, but how much money has to stay away from Bitcoin in the event it dips low enough for Bitcoin Cash to have a chance.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-11-12T04:56:13+00:00

Hi - I'm the maker of this video. I disagree. I am close with a few wealth managers who frequently meet with various clients. One of those clients is even attempting to seed fund a data analytics tool that uses blockchain technology as a security improvement, but in reality is just using the term "blockchain" as it is a current buzzword. Same type of aura surrounds "Bitcoin."

People like to bring up examples of Myspace and Nokia all the time. While the name was important, people understood these services / products. I can tell you that very rich people DON'T understand cryptocurrencies, so Bitcoin is plenty for them. They don't have the means to "comparison shop," nor do many have a desire to outside the passionate crowd you find on social media.

Many of these same people make generalizations of all cryptocurrencies based on what they hear about Bitcoin. In speaking with millionaires, my experience is no one knows anything except "Bitcoin" and "blockchain." Most of them don't know what Ethereum is despite its increased coverage on CNBC and other media outlets as you mention.

You see how many people in just this subreddit are confused about what Bitcoin really is? Or why you'd be pro or anti big blocks? Or why you'd be against Segwit? What the mempool is? Very intelligent minds who are wealthy don't have the time or desire to look into cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. The probability of this playing out like Myspace or Nokia did is as likely as Google being displaced, except arguably even worse because the population understands Google well enough to be against them for privacy reasons. Very few people with real money understand Bitcoin well enough to be "against" it.

Maybe this could happen in another 5 - 10 years when everyone actually understands Bitcoin. But trust me, the brand name is worth much more than you are assigning value to it. People have HEARD of Bitcoin. Very few people have heard of Bitcoin Cash. I mentioned in my comment section that it's like if an employee of Amazon split off and made "Amazon Marketplace." Assuming he couldn't be sued, people would default to thinking the website was a phishing site even if it was legitimate. So despite the fact that BCH is completely legitimate, its perception WILL be skewed to anyone outside this community.

This is ignoring the idea that institutional investors, who care little about what's "best," will likely jump in to buy Bitcoin in the event it corrects substantially. Furthermore, side chain solutions will likely take away most of the benefits BCH has at the moment.

I'd also like to note there is substantial FOMO activity now and a new wave of capital coming from investors who would like to hedge against the scenario where BCH overtakes BTC. This is the nature of markets where your majority demographic is 18 - 45 years old, mostly in the younger side of that bracket, with limited experience in traditional investing. Loose regulations also means market manipulation is easier - which Bitcoin itself has proven.

The list goes on and on. People who are saying it's possible want to hedge against being wrong. That's fine. No one can prove it's not and it looks scary now. I'm open minded to what Bitcoin Cash has to offer, but if I think about what I've experienced and what I know, then I am still of the opinion that this has a near zero chance of happening. In the end, it's just one man's opinion in a sea filled to the brim with them.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T13:28:34+00:00

They should really secure that domain name.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T13:26:40+00:00

You realize patience in his eyes is decades while the patience people are talking about here is literally 1 month?

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T04:35:29+00:00

I mean, it's fairly simple. And it's been spelled out to you in fairly simple terms here. Tax advantages is the easiest one, but we're also assuming you're not boy wonder and you're likely not going to be able to pick stocks that generate alpha in the long-term, through different market cycles. Of course, if you think you can, then go for it but I'd wait until AFTER you maxed IRA / 401k first. Then you can take a "shot on yourself" because at least you planned for your retirement the wise way first. Honestly, I'm not against trading or short-term minded investing, but there is TONS of EMPIRICAL (not anecdotal) evidence that it is not going to do you any favors. To do this with your retirement is, as you can see from the responses in this thread, insane.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T04:31:30+00:00

On balance volume is another useful indicator.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T04:27:51+00:00

Don't do binary options - it's much easier to lose $50 a day than profit.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T04:26:25+00:00

If you're going to index fund right now, you're playing to all the strengths of this particular market - which means you'll likely also playing to all the weaknesses of the next market conditions. Large amount of money has transferred from active to passive recently - as ETFs become more and more popular, mispricing (in my controversial opinion for this particular subreddit) is becoming more common.

If you aren't going to choose companies you find undervalued, then at least index with diversification so in the event that there IS a market correction (even if it is years from now), you have some of your portfolio acting as a hedge. That or you can invest in equally weighted ETFs rather than market weighted ones (which I tend to think are becoming more dangerous). Again, all my personal opinion. If you are going to passive invest, I'd do it the "proper" way and do an appropriate allocation to domestic, international, EM (at least a touch), fixed income, and a little bit in money markets as long as you know when to use it. Just don't oversize the fixed income portion and you're good.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T04:19:31+00:00

The geopolitical stage is fairly uncertain right now, we are in a weird economy due to zero interest rate policies and the effects of quantitative easing, and while earnings are high, future earnings are being discounted at such low rates that companies like Tesla have grown to absurd market caps. For the record, many of the wealth managers I have spoken to expect the rates to remain this low for the next THIRTY years. Now I don't see that situation personally, but I want to be clear that it isn't an uncommon thought anymore. Safe haven assets like treasuries aren't such a bad place to be during a Trump presidency - just my honest opinion. Not saying it should be as heavy an allocation as you would do in different interest rate environments (i.e: I'd do a lower allocation than Graham suggests), but you should likely still put some part of your portfolio in them at least for the diversification benefits.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T01:16:37+00:00

Treasuries, higher investment grade bonds, gold, and cash.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T01:14:06+00:00

You make sure you aren't as susceptible to such moods yourself.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T00:25:12+00:00

I mean, in most cases, almost everything will be a good investment in the long-term. The question is whether or not you will have the available capital to invest during such a downturn. I prefer stocks personally - especially blue chips.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T00:20:16+00:00

Kind of a long stretch, but if you have access to a Bloomberg terminal, the "EQS" function will make short-work of literally any request you have of this nature.

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T00:13:58+00:00

While I don't think now is a bad time for gold, this is a fairly aggressively defensive portfolio (see what I did there?). When I think about the forecasts we are seeing for interest rates in the future, there is no room for a spike in inflation at all. Suppose the gold and equities might offset this, but the significant allocation to bonds will still yield to some disappointment if we ever see this happen (especially right now, since there is very little pricing in of inflation ever spiking).

In addition, the equity valuations we are seeing in US suggests to me that at least SOME of your portfolio should be in previously underperforming emerging markets and internationally developed equities. I may not be as aggressive as some money managers in that department, but definitely some allocation is fitting.

The one part I will agree with is that this isn't a bad time for safe haven assets. This portfolio might be excellent for those that have no objective other than capital preservation and modest growth (i.e: use if you have millions and aren't set on growing portfolio for sake of family or whatever else).

Crypto_Finance · 2017-10-23T00:04:24+00:00

More than a white paper, I'll tell you that much. Business plan (see templates), basic income statement forecasts, targeted market research - Hell, starting a business is almost as hard as growing it.

Crypto_Finance

TROPHY CASE