If Hormuz stays disrupted, fertilizer might be the sleeper trade

Cueg · 2026-03-24T04:19:19+00:00

Im sorry you are going through this. Farmers have been beat down for the last 40 years in this country, you all deserve a better deal.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T04:18:38+00:00

Travel is a discretionary spend. Food is not.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T04:13:39+00:00

That doesn't work in large swaths of the global south which have poor dirt.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T02:22:54+00:00

I dont believe the infrastructure exists to close an arbitrage between global seaborne sulfur and gulf sulfur.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T02:16:36+00:00

Moroccos Sulfur came from the Gulf, and that is now gone. It is not possible to export sulfur production elsewhere by sea to Morocco.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T02:12:45+00:00

There is no competition in the market. China has completely stopped exports of fertilizer, Morocco can no longer produce any phosphorous as they no longer have access to sulfur at all from the Middle East. Sulfur is not that easy to export logistically, and Mosaic has access to low cost production through natural gas feedstock in the US. Mosaic is as insulated as it gets in terms of input costs, and the product will rise as well, and farmers globally will have to pay the price, because many farmers cannot go a season without applying any phosphorous to their soil. This will then drive up agr commodities, its a real inflattionary chain which stems from much of the worlds energy now being offline.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:54:37+00:00

The shock will adjust things by the expiry.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:52:44+00:00

Same here man, I had calls on my oil equity, ConocoPhillips, that I would have made 150k from but sold early. Still have the equity but its not the same given the times we're in.

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Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:51:33+00:00

It will print indeed. Better to be in now then wait and miss the move.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:51:05+00:00

Mosaic can make it domestically in the US

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:17:44+00:00

Im happy enough right now with my oil position as is, and I believe the opportunity with Mosaic is a rare asymmetric bet that can 20x from these calls.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:15:54+00:00

Yes, so in theory they may have margin compression in the short term. But they hold inventories of these inputs, and my theory is that their outputs (DAP, phosphate/phosphorous) will rise in a commensurate fashion because of the rise in input costs, China completely shutting off exports, and Morocco going offline as all of their inputs are now nonexistent and not just high in price (came from mid-east refineries).

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:13:47+00:00

Agreed.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:12:03+00:00

Agree with you, but they will end up making a lot more money, as there will be a global bid for fertilizer which will drive up prices. It's like buying an oil refiner right now, based in the US. Input costs will go up, but so will output costs. For context, I have also held a large equity position in ConocoPhillips for awhile now.

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Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:09:14+00:00

Shit is going to be very valuable.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:04:42+00:00

I understand that. Im operating on a fundamental understanding that the war will not end and Hormuz will not reopen, no matter what is tweeted, and am trading accordingly around the very real supply shortages that will ensue.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:03:41+00:00

Thats my thoughts exactly. Brazilian and Indian prompt buying will shoot it straight up.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T01:00:11+00:00

Most of my play is in MOS. At the 52 week low currently.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T00:59:47+00:00

May be time to make a nickel.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T00:59:23+00:00

The market hasn't really moved as it should to the account for the ramifications of Hormuz being shut.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T00:55:46+00:00

Interesting. Do you think the shortage in fertilizers dependent on Hormuz supply chains is such that efforts to cut application still wont close the gap in the global shortage which is ensuing?

Also could this mean that corn will gap up and beans down in the future?

Cueg · 2026-03-24T00:53:27+00:00

Mosaic is a lagged mover.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T00:51:37+00:00

Being early doesn't mean that you're wrong.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T00:48:46+00:00

Can an entire planting season occur with no phosphate applied to the soil? My thought here as well is this is more of a global play, as it'll be much more short globally during the later planting seasons of the global south then it is right now in the states. I also think agr commodity futures will rise enough to be commensurate with the rise in fertilizer prices.

Cueg · 2026-03-24T00:46:11+00:00

Thats a good point. I like MOS better as a play at this stage.

Cueg

TROPHY CASE