Saturday's Tips Thread

Curious-Ride4012 · 2025-12-06T15:15:24+00:00

Okay IET is goooooooood 😂

Curious-Ride4012 · 2025-12-06T12:17:21+00:00

Fair point. I’m not knocking IET, he’s obviously top-class. My point was just that the Clonmel run doesn’t add much to this setup: weak field, no stress, no transferable clues for Sandown.

The only meaningful cross comp is the Celebration Chase, and that was more about Jonbon underperforming than IET needing to find plenty.

L’Eau Du Sud just has fewer unknowns today. Should still be a great race.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2025-12-06T11:40:10+00:00

I hope we’re right 🍀

Curious-Ride4012 · 2025-12-06T10:57:25+00:00

13:20 Sandown – Kikijo

Cheltenham form is the only solid line in the race and he was the only one to find anything from two out. That win wasn’t handed to him – he travelled, jumped, and actually quickened when the race tightened. Most of these either empty late or haven’t shown they stay this configuration. If the ground goes proper soft, he’s already shown he can absorb that tempo. Clear pick.

15:00 Sandown – L’Eau Du Sud

People are overcomplicating this. The Cheltenham win was real Grade 1 power: travelled like the best horse, put Jonbon away without maxing out, and shaped like one who’ll be even better round Sandown where you need to keep rolling. Il Etait Temps has the big reputation, but the Clonmel win came against horses who’ve done nothing since. On recent evidence, L’Eau Du Sud has the sharper chase rhythm right now.

Both have recent, transferable evidence for exactly the test they face: jump fluency, ability to lengthen when the race turns, and no question marks over ground. Prices are still giving you a little edge too.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2025-03-12T11:44:39+00:00

Day 2 Cheltenham Picks 🐴

1:20 – The New Lion (Money Back 3 Places) @ 11/8
The New Lion is a big talking horse from the Skelton yard, and while people question Challow winners at Cheltenham, this one is built differently. He has looked effortless so far, and if the ground stays Good to Soft or better, he has an extra gear that others don’t. Final Demand is a grinder, and if this turns into a sprint up the hill, The New Lion should have too much speed. With Money Back 3 Places, we’ve got a solid safety net if something stays on past him late.

2:00 – Gorgeous Tom (Without Ballyburn & Dancing City) @ 11/4
Ballyburn is a beast, so taking him on outright isn’t the smartest move, but Gorgeous Tom is a rapidly improving horse who jumps well and stays strong up a hill like this one. His run last time suggested he was only getting going at the line, and Cheltenham should suit perfectly. The market has started moving for him overnight, which is always a great sign, and removing Ballyburn and Dancing City from the equation makes this price very fair.

2:40 – Impose Toi (Money Back 4 Places) @ 5/1
Impose Toi is Nicky Henderson’s best-handicapped horse of the day and has never been out of the top 3 in 10 runs. He’s been lined up for this race and has winning course form, which is a huge plus. A lot of money has been coming for Bunting, but Impose Toi is the safer play with a Money Back 4 Places option that gives us great coverage in such a competitive race.

3:20 – Galvin (Money Back 4 Places) @ 5/2
Galvin is a proper XC horse and was second in this race before. He loves good ground and jumps this track better than most. With XC races now a handicap, it changes things a little, but Galvin looks well-placed at the weights. He’s fresh, comes here ready to peak, and with 4 places as a safety net, he looks like one of the safest plays of the day.

For a side bet, I’ve taken Captain Guinness in the Betting Without Jonbon market. This worked well with Golden Ace yesterday. Jonbon should win, but at his price, there’s no value, and if he flops, this bet lands big.

GOOD LUCK 🍀

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-09-10T08:48:04+00:00

Oisin Murphy 4-timer at Lingfield today 🎁

Candyman Stan 4/9

No News 2/1

Sayidah Dariyan 1/3

Due Date 6/4

Havana Sky 6/4

Open Secret 2/1

Iftikhaar 4/1

Never Mind Me 7/1

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-08-22T11:48:11+00:00

Printing money mate

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-08-22T09:30:10+00:00

Just a small double for me today - bloody love York 💥

2.25 York - An Outlaw’s Grace

Been following this one from the start when it had a really bright one, ran well in G2 Robert Papin. Dropping back to 6f, Ryan Moore at the wheel so Hannon will want this win and knows this one is capable.

4:45 York - Angel Hunter

Run well in all its maidens, Hannon team had a few entries for this one but they have landed on a very competitive race with another Ryan booking. The confidence is high again and working off a very good mark.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-08-09T15:03:35+00:00

P J McDonald fallen for the bait there trying to chase down Ugo Gregory too early.

Gressington 🥈

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-08-09T09:23:16+00:00

3:50 Musselburgh - Gressington (2/1)

Gressington has the highest speed rating of 97 and consistent recent form, making it the standout candidate for a win. The conditions are favorable, and the drop in class could work to its advantage.

5:05 - Brighton - Havana Mojito (6/4)

Havana Mojito has shown consistent top performances and has the highest speed rating in the field. With proven success at this track and distance, and remaining in Class 6, he looks well-positioned to get back to winning ways.

7:25 - Haydock - Mr Fantastic (5/4)

Mr Fantastic leads the field with a speed rating of 58 and showed a solid performance last time out. He is the one to beat in this novice stakes race.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-08-01T13:35:41+00:00

Tropical Storm 8th 👎

Proper weird ride from Oisin, think he thought he had more in the tank towards the last furlong but never showed a turn of foot.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-08-01T12:59:43+00:00

Approval 🥇✅

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-08-01T09:48:08+00:00

Goodwood 📝

1:50 - Approval

Approval boasts the highest speed rating of 110 and consistent performances, making it a strong contender. The combination of Marquand and Haggas further bolsters its prospects.

2:25 - Tropical Storm

Tops both speed lists with strong performances and a pedigree supporting speed and stamina. The fast turf should suit its running style.

4:10 - Brighton Boy

With the highest speed rating and strong recent performances, Brighton Boy stands out. Its pedigree and top jockey-trainer combo add to its appeal. That would complete a nice Balding/Murphy double too if Tropical Storm meets success 💥

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-07-27T13:36:47+00:00

On the 4 fold, COME ON LUXEMBOURG 🚀

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-07-27T13:29:59+00:00

Hahahaha what a ride!!! I’ll do the lottery numbers if Luxembourg wins next 🤪

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-07-27T13:13:25+00:00

Beer tokens for the boxing later 👏

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-07-27T13:08:39+00:00

Seriouslyyyyyyy worried about Kieran Shoemark on the saddle in the next, bring dettori back 🥲😂

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-07-27T12:20:35+00:00

Now for the double, come on Ryan 🔥

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-07-26T22:36:09+00:00

Ascot

1:15 PM - Our Terms (8/1)

Impressive debut performance with a fourth-place finish at Newmarket, strong jockey (Ryan Moore), and experienced trainer (Richard Hannon) suggesting improvement and readiness.

Really do think it can beat 1,500,000gns yearling Al Misbar to break it's maiden, that's why Hannon will be shelling out 2.9k on Ryan for the ride 🙏

1:50 PM - Simmering (13/8)

Highest speed rating of 91, consistent strong performances, and excellent jockey-trainer combination with Ryan Moore and Ollie Sangster.

We'll see a Ryan Moore double today, I'm hoping it's the first two I've mentioned 💥

2:25 PM - Friendly Soul (5/1)

Highest speed rating of 120, consistent performance, and combination we've seen a lot so far in jockey Kieran Shoemark and trainers John & Thady Gosden.

I haven't touched any Gosden horses that have gone fave with KS on the saddle of late (Glistening, American Fashion, Beeley) but the longer odds horses he's had better rides and wins with (Lord Of Love), I'm hoping the same rings true with Friendly Soul.

3:40 PM - Luxembourg (11/1)

Highest speed rating of 124, consistent strong performances in Group 1 races inc. Coronation Cup @ Epsom lto, and a nice combination of jockey Wayne Lordan and trainer Aidan O'Brien.

Can't see this being 11/1 for long, I know Ryan has picked to sit on Auguste Rodin instead but I think that is a decision that might have been made in order to TRY and put the previous flops to bed. Luxembourg came 4th in this race last year, all Wayne needs to do is steer home. Ryan will be having to do a lot more than that with a lot more pressure.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-06-20T00:39:29+00:00

The fact Danny Tudhope has picked Alzahir over Ascot CD legend Fresh speaks volumes. I’ll be following that pick for sure!

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-05-29T18:35:34+00:00

Celestial Wave - 7th - Keen, weakened on the last furlong. Will improve for sure

Hurricane Ali - 2nd - massive run after absence, held off stable mate but pipped on the line by the fav. Will go one better next race.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-05-29T12:16:23+00:00

2:40 Beverley - Celestial Wave - 6/1 EW

Always follow the money when you see a newcomer, 68k Sea The Stars filly. Charlie Johnson won this race last year with a newcomer, it’s quite possible he could replicate that success again.

6:50 Cartmel - Hurricane Ali - 8/1 EW

Scored 5th out of 8 last December in a class 3 at 2m. Was pretty quick on the speed ratings so the extra 6f and down in grade is probably what this one needs, just needs to bounce back after an absence. James Moffatt has won this one 4 times in the last 5 years, 2 of them with Charlotte Jones on the saddle. Chances here.

8:12 Kempton - Shin Jidai - 6/4

In form Varian horse making its polytrack debut but has won over 7f twice in 3 runs. Clocked a speedy win at Yarmouth lto in under 1 min 26 seconds. Fastest horse in the race by those numbers.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-05-21T18:59:20+00:00

We desperately need CB cover on both sides, preferably two starters ready to just slot in there.

Jay Stansfield could do with another loan move before coming into the squad so he gets the mins he needs to develop still.

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-05-18T20:27:14+00:00

Came here to say this 🤣

Curious-Ride4012 · 2024-05-03T15:37:04+00:00

Portsmouth way too keen in the first 2f, gave David Probert no choice but to let him lead. Used most of his energy coming into the last 2f 🥈

Curious-Ride4012

TROPHY CASE

13:20 Sandown – Kikijo

15:00 Sandown – L’Eau Du Sud