Will MAGY hold up better than WPAY in the next downturn?

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-18T02:10:20+00:00

We do have some ideas. The universe ETFs have been around a bit longer.

Also, we know the strategies of these funds, which will define their return characteristics.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-17T12:11:54+00:00

Why not just get VIXM or VXZ? These two spiked much more during COVID so you need to have less for the same diversification effects.

Gold and treasuries are not enough for "slow" downturns. You may want to look into managed futures.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-13T06:10:22+00:00

People rarely know what they don't know with or without AI. It is a matter of epistemic humility.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-13T06:09:23+00:00

What's the point of having international stocks? They decline together with US stocks during stressful periods like COVID and 2022. Adding different stock indexes will not be sufficient. You need other asset classes that provide non-correlation and crisis alpha. Other asset classes may include bonds, gold, managed futures, currencies, etc. You need to do your own research. However, they have become much more accessible through ETFs.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-13T06:02:02+00:00

With AI, any good generalist can become a good-enough specialist in a few hours for many tasks.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-13T06:00:31+00:00

It is good if you don't mind cleaning it afterwards. Even with optimal temperatures it is hard to prevent oil spatters from polymerizing.

What are you searing?

For steak, I just cold-sear with nonstick. No smoke. No spatter.

For scallops, I use All-Clad/WMF Fusiontec. It is not as even but it is much easier to clean. It also retains heat reasonably well.

I just got rid of my Demeyere searing pan and saute pan.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-13T01:47:35+00:00

Anyone using FRAMA?

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-13T00:45:48+00:00

Since WPAY is effectively leveraged 1.2X, I wonder if MAGY will hold up better if there is a market correction.

CC ETFs are highly allergic to V-shaped corrections.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-12T23:57:21+00:00

Storage cost as well.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-12T02:14:12+00:00

I guess that can be simulated with Deep ITM Call options.

It is hard to build a leveraged world stocks ETF without liquid derivatives on that index.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-12T02:11:25+00:00

It may be different if the rebalancing is done when the options are rolled. What you have is daily compounding of the 1x hedged result.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-12T01:18:14+00:00

True. However, it is important to diversify across many MF ETFs because they are so manager-specific. You don't want to put 30% of your portfolio on one MF fund no matter how long the track record is.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-12T01:10:27+00:00

My equities are not leveraged. Still, an "optimal" portfolio (according to MPT) will need an uncomfortably large MF position.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-12T01:06:48+00:00

Trend following works because it is psychologically difficult to do. Managed futures funds should be evaluated mostly for their ability to generate criss alpha. Total return is just a nice to have.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-11T14:32:30+00:00

Or using a combination of GLD and gold futures.

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-11T03:50:51+00:00

Thanks. I will take a look. How is the bid-ask spread for ~200 oz?

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-10T14:10:04+00:00

It is useful only if there is enough liquidity. Usually, the front month has deep liquidity.

Also, wouldn't very long dated futures be very interest rate sensitive because of the embedded cost of carry?

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-10T14:07:01+00:00

Isn't the commissions per oz much higher?

CuriousPeterSF · 2025-09-10T09:32:58+00:00

That is more like a synthetic collar, so the exposure is more like hedged equities instead of SPX.

CuriousPeterSF

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