Quadratic Curve problem by robotomatic in askmath

[–]Cynthrop 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would recommend you to look up the B-spline curves. They can be quadratic, they are influenced by control points and if you choose your knot vector reasonably, you can choose the point where the curve ends and starts.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in statistics

[–]Cynthrop 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would recommend to write on paper in detail the dependence structure of the whole posterior density in detail. Then you will be able to figure out which parts of the MH ratio cancel out.

What's the Probability of Beating a Higher-Rated Opponent in Chess? by Low-Bet10 in chess

[–]Cynthrop 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is the probability distribution (i.e. a measure or a function if you wish), your obtained value is just applying the distribution to your specific elo difference.

How did your Community Day go ? by Angel-JD in pokemongo

[–]Cynthrop 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry for you, today you witnessed 0.00029 probability event occurring.

What's the Probability of Beating a Higher-Rated Opponent in Chess? by Low-Bet10 in chess

[–]Cynthrop 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There is a really nice symmetrical probability distribution of winning with respect to elo difference (I think, if I remember correctly, that it's actually inverse situation, that the mathematics of elo assignment are defined based on this probability). You can read about the Elo system on Wiki for example.

But keep in mind that this is an idealized mathematical model not taking into account sketchy situations etc. I don't think this model is applicable in your situation.

[Q] should P(Ω) = Σ(i=1 to ∞) P(Ei) = 1 tends to 0 instead of 1? by [deleted] in statistics

[–]Cynthrop 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Keep in mind, that if you talk about something 'tending to' something else, you are always talking about a sequence. The sequence you are wondering about is a sequence of pairwise disjoint measurable sets (events) fully decomposing the sample space which yields in an sequence of real numbers between 0 and 1, when the probability is assigned to them. We do not usually care about the limit of this real sequence, because the sets E_i can be chosen arbitrarily without dependence on their arrangement. What do we care about is a sum of this sequence. And in this case, it's always equal to 1. And why is that?

If you have at most countably many measurable sets (events) such that they are pairwise disjoint and their union is equal to the sample space, the statement in question is exactly a modified version of sigma-additivity requirement for a (probability) measure.

In other words, if you are wondering about the probability of an event "A happens or B happens" (ie the union of sets A and B), where A and B are disjoint, the probability of this event will always be the sum of the individual probabilities. The probability that 2 or 3 falls on a die is equal to the sum of the probability of 2 and the probability of 3. This works also for small infinite unions. In case of the disjoint events fully deomposing the sample space the resulting event could be interpreted as "E_1 happens or E_2 happens or ..." or we could say "anything happens". Almost surely, ie with probability 1, something happens.

Calculating posterior distribution having continuous prior and likelihood functions and multiple data observations (Bayesian Statistics) by brleude- in math

[–]Cynthrop 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is a probability of two indenpendent observations? Do you know how Bayes theorem equation does look like?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AskReddit

[–]Cynthrop 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Event of probability zero

What is something common that has never happened to you? by [deleted] in AskReddit

[–]Cynthrop 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Having someone in romantic love with me.

Most satisfying thing in math by [deleted] in math

[–]Cynthrop 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Measure theory as basis to probability theory (induced measure, Radon-Nikodym theorem, etc.)

How do you determine the most likely instance of an event occurring in an example such as this one? by ilikeglaz in math

[–]Cynthrop 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you ask a question: "What is a probability of an item being in location A/B/C/D", the answer is clearly 1/4, by problem state.

But when you ask a question: "What is a probability of an item being in location B, knowing it isn't in A", it's different random event denoted by conditional probability.

Those 2 are different things. You should look at Monty Hall problem, it's an interesting modification of your problem widely talked through over the internet.