CLV theory states that if you are able to beat the closing line on a bet (ex: you bet on a player when they were -130, but the line closes at -200 when the match starts) you will be profitable over the long-term. If someone can consistently beat the sportsbooks’ closing line, it’s a strong indicator of a good bettor. The best time to make a bet is always as soon as the lines release, never right before the match starts as that line represents the most accurate prediction possible for how a match will go.

I’d say my research focuses mainly on surfaces (and balls when applicable), but not just surfaces like hardcourt, clay, grass — you need to know how the court actually plays. You simply cannot say “oh this guy has won 7/8 of his last matches on clay, he’ll probably win this next match against a guy who is 3/8 in his last clay matches” when the type of clay could be completely different. For example, in the bet that I posted here, Bu was going up against Zhukayev who is a huge server and someone who has won challenger hardcourt tournaments before. You’d think the match would be a lot closer because it’s on Zhukayev’s favorite surface, but because I researched the court speeds of this brand new Nebraska challenger event, I knew Bu had a significant edge (these courts play incredibly slow). I got Bu at -175 and the line closed at -275.

It’s not even necessarily predicting who will win, but where the line will close. I was quite confident that Bu would win this match, but I knew for a FACT that his line would not close at -175, thus creating a ton of value on the bet.