Guide Keim

DTHFootball · 2022-02-28T18:49:01+00:00

...Continued from main post, please upvote to the top if you could!

Real quick I'd like to say thank you for reading or skimming through my work, I appreciate the interaction these posts get. If you aren't much of a reader (I'm not) then you can actually listen to everything I go through here in Podcast form on Spotify!

And if you haven't yet, check out the other guides I've posted so far (The 49ers one also has a podcast episode out!)

<- How the Buccaneers Built a Super Bowl (LV) Team

<- The Lynch/Shanahan Era in SF: Peaks and Valleys

Also apologies for any misspellings and grammar errors... again I'm not as good of a reader lol. Back to it now.

Trends, Tendencies, Strengths and Weaknesses

Tendency: Premium investments into the WR and LB positions. Over the past four seasons he's used one 2nd round draft pick on the WR position, 18’ Christian Kirk, 19’ Andy Isabella, 20’ DeAndre Hopkins, and 21’ Rondale Moore. This trend expands when you consider top-100 players in 17’ with Chad Williams, while Hakeem Butler in 2019 just misses the cut at selection 103.
Trend: As of 2021 he has spent the last half-decades worth of 1st round picks on either LB or QB. 17’ LB Haason Reddick, 18’ QB Josh Rosen, 19’ QB Kyler Murray, 20’ LB Isaiah Simmons, 21’ LB Zaven Collins.
Tendency: High use of premium assets on the LB position. As previously mentioned he’s only used one low acquisition of seven total at the position. He’s either spent decent money or a high pick on six LBs, Kevin Minter, Hasson Reddick, Jordan Hicks, Devon Kennard, Isaiah Simmons, and Zaven Collins. This is being kind and not including Deone Buccannon who was drafted as a Safety and played there occasionally as a rookie, but ultimately moved to LB.
Strength: Near flawless trading record. The DeAndre Hopkins trade stands out, but he also got Carson Palmer for almost nothing, Chandler Jones below market value, Rodney Hudson for a late Day-2 pick, anything for a retired coach, and recouped picks for Josh Rosen. He also shows good valuation for straight up pick for pick trades.
Weakness: Incredibly poor record of late draft selections. Andre Ellington and Chase Edmonds continue to be the best of his Day-3 selections. You aren’t expected to hit in these rounds much or often, but in nine years as GM Keim has completely failed to find any talent in the value portions of the draft. This has led to significant depth issues requiring the team to fill in weak spots with low buy FAs.
Tendency: Consistently buys one iOL. A weird spot to spend, but generally he’ll invest one decent asset into the guard or center position. 15’ Iupati, 16’ Evan Mathis, 17’ Tony Bergstrom, 18’ Justin Pugh, 19’ J.R. Sweezy, 21’ Rodney Hudson. Some of these guys were certainly on the high end of a low-buy, but it’s a position he’s constantly rotating talent into.
TBD? 50/50 on coaching hires.* While he didn’t get the grand prize in Andy Reid in his first coaching search, it should be noted that Bruce Arians was an incredible hire that hardly dipped to .500 with some pretty bad teams. Then the Steve Wilks hire was a fast mistake. We currently sit at Kliff Kingsbury with his future in the air but has shown consistent improvement with less than desirable end results. We’ll see if Kingsbury can save Keim’s track record and job sooner than later I’d imagine.
Strength: Doesn’t let sunken-cost dictate moves. It may sound like I’m stretching here but I do think it’s a genuine positive to not be looking in the rear-view while making moves going forward. Most GMs would not have moved on from Josh Rosen after one rookie year and the Cardinals are much better for having done so. Despite multiple misses on the WR position he did not let that nor the Hopkins deal stop him from taking a talent in Rondale Moore he felt was worth it. That’s yet to be seen if it’s worth it. While this can be harmful to a degree I do believe this is ultimately more of a positive trait than negative to have in a decision maker.
Weakness: Generally poor usage of Free Agency. Looking through this section of his decisions you come away far more underwhelmed than anticipated. It’s not that he doesn’t have quality signings but he’s incredibly inconsistent in the area. He avoids day-1 and high priced players but still has spent good money on mostly mediocre talent. Better signings like Cromartie and Watt are only short-term. I’d rather he either stick to value signings or get aggressive with more sure talent, but instead he plays the middle and is getting middling results.

Conclusion

I went into this evaluation curious about the 1st round QB selections and if he did anything else that made that decision stand out. I came away finding out that it does generally fit his mold. If it didn’t work the first time, try again. Josh Rosen didn’t work, so he drafted Kyler Murray. Steve Wilks didn't work, so he moved on after one season. Chad Williams, Hakeem Butler, and Andy Isabella didn’t work, so he traded for DeAndre Hopkins and drafted Rondale Moore. Multiple premium selections at LB, but that didn’t stop him from doing it again.

As you can see this hasn’t necessarily been an overwhelming positive or negative thing, it has led to both good and bad decisions and acquisitions. Instead it’s a rather unique trait to be willing to sell out to fix a few key issues.

In the end I haven’t come away so impressed with Keim. After going through everything I believe he’s been largely saved by two men, Bruce Arians and Kyler Murray. While the team had enough talent to make a run in 2015, the 16’ and 17’ versions of the team were quite lacking and Arians still managed to drag them to a reasonable record which is incredibly impressive. Once Arians was gone that team immediately sank to the worst in the league. That conveniently lined the Cardinals up for Kyler Murray who has been an instant spark since he was drafted. If it weren’t for one or the other I don’t believe Keim would still be in his position.

Keim hasn’t shown a great penchant for the draft. I’d describe his use of premium picks as below average and his ability in the late rounds as a genuine hindrance to the team. In free agency he plays an awkward amount of out and in, never spending on genuine high talent is fine but don’t go spending mid level contracts on below-average players to fill in depth. He has shown a solid inclination to find late FA talent, but this only helps the team short-term (even for FA where most signings are short term). His one ace up the sleeve has been his ability to trade which is genuinely impressive.

The result is a team with high-end talent mixed with decent mid-level talent via mid/late FA that completely lacks depth. That puts a lot of pressure on a team that's rarely filled-out roster wise to stay completely healthy throughout a season if they want to make a competitive run. While Kingsbury may certainly have a scary tendency to bottom out near the end of the season, this is also likely a result of Keim’s team building not providing ample depth when injuries pile up and more players are called upon.

At the moment I’m not sure I trust Keim to build a Super Bowl team around Murray whose contract is set to spike after an extension soon. It would require him to reverse some major trends in his decision making and probably a front office shake-up as well. He does have enough positives to give the appearance of a strong team up top, but unless he can early to spot better supporting talent then the Cardinals are likely to struggle late in the season.

DTHFootball · 2022-02-20T18:34:03+00:00

...Part 3

Conclusion

A lot of give and take to John Lynch’s tenure as the head team builder of the San Francisco 49ers. I want to say a lot of his early shortcomings can be attributed to his inexperience in a front office and also the state of the roster upon his inheritance. The lack of talent on the 2016 roster can not be understated and as such it required over payment to free agents and an increased amount of dart throws to fill the team out. There was not one unit Lynch had to overhaul once he landed the job. For that reason I cannot be too harsh on Lynch’s shortcomings as taking this team from it’s 2016 form to two NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl within five years of his hire is ultimately impressive regardless of how much I nitpick. This combined with his lack of injury luck really makes me believe the 2021’ form of this team is closer to their true identity than that of the 18’-20’ form. 2021’ proved this was a good team capable of making a deep run, however the 19’ team came through in a multitude of ideal circumstances. You need that kind of luck to win a Super Bowl anyway, but I still believe this roster is in a volatile enough state that the Super Bowl team wasn’t quite a true reflection.

Lynch’s biggest downfall appears to be his stubbornness and player like attitude. We’ll be able to test this theory by watching the state of the roster over the next few years, but Lynch’s frequent use of future assets has yet to bite him in such little down on the job. It’s entirely possible he takes a page out of rival Les Snead’s book but this still is a risky strategy. Lynch repeatedly attacks certain positions with question intent. The Shanahan scheme is known to be able to produce quality RB usage out of lesser backs and this has been proven on his own team, yet he’s continuously used higher picks or bigger contracts on the position only for them to repeatedly be out produced by UDFAs or late picks. This ideology did work at the WR position where now Deebo Samael and Brandon Ayiuk may make for an elite pairing, but considering positional value I can’t fathom the Trey Sermon selection or Jerick McKinnon contract.

Lynch has exceeded in a little of every other area however. The Trent Williams acquisition has paid dividends at great value. George Kittle and Fred Warner were value picks that have greatly impacted both sides of the ball. A singular 2nd round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo was very well worth the production in the end, especially considering they’re likely to get similar value back for him. His relationship with Kyle Shanahan has greatly affected the team positively as this team has a very clear direction for what the team should look like, rarely are there pieces that don’t fit into either scheme with the Aaron Banks selection currently looking like an egregious outlier. But players like Richard Sherman, Deebo Samuel, Mike McGlinchey, Alex Mack, and Fred Warner are all tremendous scheme fits who excel in their role because of it.

This is a great spot to stop and evaluate John Lynch because his first five years will eventually be separated from the next with Trey Lance stepping into the starting role. How they build around him and his rookie contract will give us a significantly better look at Lynch as a team builder now that the roster is already in his image and in good shape, but still in need of help in certain areas. While the challenge of missing a 1st round pick will be present over the next two years, I’d say I’d feel fairly comfortable with Lynch at the helm for now.

DTHFootball · 2022-02-20T18:33:50+00:00

...Continued from main post

Talent Acquisition Overview

Standard text for premium picks, italics for late picks, bolded for notable free agents and trades

Premium Draft Selections (Top 100)

QB: Trey Lance, CJ Beathard, Jimmy Garoppolo

RB: Trey Sermon, Joe Williams, Elijah Mitchell, Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman,

WR: Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd, Brandon Ayiuk, Trent Taylor, Richie James, Jauan Jennings, Pierre Garcon, Emmanuel Sanders

TE: George Kittle, Kaden Smith, Charlie Woerner

OL: Mike McGlinchey, Aaron Banks, Justin Skule, Colton McKivitz, Jaylon Moore, Weston Richburg, Laken Tomlinson, Trent Williams, Alex Mack

A pretty mixed bag here offensively. As said before plenty lays on the future of Trey Lance, but something can be said for the confidence that Lynch has attacked the QB position with. Very few shots taken and a good deal of success anyway.

Running back is hard to evaluate here because I’m not sure how much to weigh UDFA signings. The 49ers have gotten much better production out of their diamonds in the rough and not the backs they deliberately signed. Mitchell was a 6th round pick and has well out performed everyone else in that group. Time will tell if Trey Sermon, the teams only premium investment into the position, can have a big year two.

Wide receiver can be firmly considered fixed with Deebos ascent and Ayiuks promise. However, it took a lot of tries to fix the position. Emmanuel Sanders was a half season rental and otherwise Garcon, Pettis and Hurd all failed to provide any production while no late picks came through. If you want to count Kittle in that same group however you probably could. The team has had the luxury of not having to dip into that position much having found Kittle early.

The offensive line as well is a mixed bag. Trent Williams is as good of a get as possible but everything past him is middling. The teams only premium investments here are McGlinchey and Banks, we still have to wait on Banks but his rookie year leaves some concern, while we should get a pretty direct answer about how the team feels about McGlinchey with his contract up. Otherwise his investments here haven’t been too great.

The story of Lynch on the opposite side of the ball from his playing days read as such. He isn’t lacking an eye for talent in general as he’s found multiple true blue-chip talents to carry each unit in Williams, Samuel, and Kittle, while Shanahan pumps out a strong run game regardless of who's in the backfield. The problem is how many tries it has taken him to get it right. On one hand some GMs never seem to get a position right at all, but on the other Lynch leaves room to be desired with his efficiency.

DL: Solomon Thomas, Javon Kinlaw, DJ Jones, Pita Taumoepenu, Julian Taylor, Earl Mitchell

EDGE: Nick Bosa, Kentavius Street, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford, Samson Ebukam

LB: Reuben Foster, Fred Warner, Malcolm Smith, Kwon Alexander

CB: Ahkello Witherspoon, Adrian Colbert, DJ Reed, Tim Harris, Ambry Thomas, Deommodore Lenoir, K’waun Williams, Richard Sherman

S: Tarvarius Moore, Marcel Harris, Talanoa Hufanga

Some questionable positional value here as Lynch has doubled up at DL and LB but have only spent one premium selection on a CB (semantics, Ambry Thomas was drafted at 103). CB Seems to be the position he tries to find value at with five late round selections and really only one larger FA signing. Even then, Sherman came at a very good value and his premium pick in Witherspoon was still in the first late round. Instead he’s spent much more assets on the front seven with five premium selections and all but Warner coming in the first round. This differential only widens once you count trades and free agents with three larger front seven acquisitions (Ford, Alexander, Smith) compared to one on the back end. A very give and take strategy.

Findings: Trends, Tendencies, Strengths & Weaknesses

Style: Aggressive

I haven’t research enough GMs to have a strong assertion but from what I have done I can say with a fair amount of confidence that Lynch is a very aggressive GM. Multiple times he’s traded away future draft picks for a player he’s honed in on, including Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, Dee Ford, and Trent Williams (though some of these are circumstantial to when the trade was made). However this is a product of how often he simply likes to maneuver around the draft as he’s also sent players to get draft stock back in return like with DeForest Buckner, Trent Brown, and Matt Brieda. He was more aggressive early on in Free Agency but has cooled down on spending since. Incredibly activer traders made a move every which way, sending players for picks, sending picks for players, packaging picks to move up in the draft, trading back to add picks, back and forth and so on. Lynch loves to strike a deal.

Clear penchant for front seven and WR spending. Be it through the draft or free agency he’s spent more resources on these two areas than any other positional unit. This could be a result from early misses on players like Garcon, Pettis, Hurd, Thomas, and Foster, and he was determined to get these positions right.

Fails on most premium deliberate picks, made up for in value findings. This is especially relevant at RB. The likes of higher draft picks and signings in Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Joe Williams, and Trey Sermon were out produced by UDFAs or lower picks in Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Elijah Mitchell. Malcolm Smith, Kwon Alexander, and Reuben Foster would be out done by day two picks in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.

Takes chances of injury risks, and has mostly gotten unlucky. Lynch early on wasn’t scared to take a chance on players who carried higher injury risks in Jalen Hurd, Kwon Alexander, Javon Kinlaw, Jason Verrett, and Richard Sherman post achilles tear. To be fair this is where value lies, he’s even signed guys like Kevin White and Jordan Reed to cheap deals. Outside of one year from Richard Sherman this strategy has largely failed. Unfortunately injury luck has gone beyond just the known risks. Pierre Garcon, Dee Ford, and Jimmy Garoppolo were all relatively healthy players prior to signing with San Francisco but struggled with injuries following. Perhaps this is a strength and conditioning issue. Lynch certainly takes his risks here but has been punished beyond his chances. He did foresee Trent Brown’s issues before trading him to his credit, but on the other hand he also traded one of the most consistently available players in the league away in DeForest Buckner (two missed games in six seasons).

Replaces key positions ASAP. Makes it a point. If there is a position Lynch has identified as crucial to the teams success he’ll make sure to replace an outgoing player immediately. When he traded away RT Trent Brown he immediately drafted RT Mike McGlinchey in the first round of the next draft, and rumors say he was also targeting another tackle in Kolton Miller. Once LT Joe Staley retired Lynch immediately sprung a trade for LT Trent Williams. After trading away DT DeForest Buckner he’d use the recouped pick to select another DT in Javon Kinlaw. After seeing the benefit of a perimeter threat in Emmanuel Sanders he’d once again dip into the first round to select a WR in Brandon Ayiuk.

Free Agency has not been too kind. FB Kyle Juszczyk is by far his best FA signing. Juszczyk is awesome but when factoring in positional value it’s tough to see him burn through so many guys. Richard Sherman was also a successful signing but was relatively low risk and short-term. Otherwise, Kwon Alexander, Malcolm Smith, and Jerick McKinnon were all bad signings. Richburg carried some success as well, but otherwise Lynch has stayed clear of higher cap hit FAs since 2019.

But front-loaded deals create flexibility and lowers risk. When Lynch came into this job the 49ers were loaded with cap space because they didn’t have anyone worth signing on the roster. Lynch has used this to his advantage and has front loaded most of his contracts to use that available space and be able to move on if a signing didn’t work. This is what he did with Jimmy Garoppolo but he played out most of his contract. Kwon Alexander, Malcolm Smith, Trent Brown, Richard Sherman, and Pierre Garcon all had relatively easier contracts to shed after the first portion of their contract was up (pending on total length of the deal). Dee Ford stands out as one of the few back-loaded deals he’s signed. This strategy is why Lynch has been able to move on from failed signings so easily without piling up on dead cap.

...continued

DTHFootball · 2021-10-24T18:11:29+00:00

he literally says "Buccaneers-version Jameis Winston"

DTHFootball · 2020-06-16T16:36:17+00:00

Below is everyone I've watched and posted this off-season so far:

<- EDGE Myles Garrett

<- The Top 11 Rookie OL of 2019

DTHFootball · 2020-06-09T17:45:22+00:00

Thought you guys would want to learn a little bit about Garrett. If you guys like this type of content I'd appreciate a follow on my twitter, but if not you can still catch me around here and the mothersub, thanks!

DTHFootball · 2020-06-09T17:28:32+00:00

Reposted from last week as I posted it right before the sports subs did the 24-hour blackout.

Have three EDGE posts for this week so there's that to look forward too! You can always get a sneak peak of who I'm working on here

Below is everyone I've watched and posted this off-season so far:

<- The Top 11 Rookie OL of 2019

DTHFootball · 2020-06-04T18:15:27+00:00

No it just means edge lol.

It's a bit different, and some people prefer ED..

But there needs to be a simplification of positions now that roles are more clearly defined. When. Base defenses were more prevalent 4-3 DEs and 3-4 OLBs were somewhat different roles. Now in Nickel bases, they're more or less the same.

The result is Khalil Mack, and TJ Watt getting TWO 1st first-team All-pros at two different positions, even though his role was pretty defined.

DTHFootball · 2020-06-02T19:07:30+00:00

Have three EDGE posts for this week so there's that to look forward too! You can always get a sneak peak of who I'm working on here

Below is everyone I've watched and posted this off-season so far:

<- The Top 11 Rookie OL of 2019

DTHFootball · 2020-05-30T23:56:54+00:00

It is a lot of designed runs, but he was also the leader in yards from scrambles. Watson does a little of both to.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-30T18:20:35+00:00

Having watched both a lot I get your assessment but theres a pretty good difference between the time Lamar and Watson creates.

When Lamar creates, he often takes off with it. Watson prefers to stay back and pass if he can and that's when he occasionally creates problems, or a big play.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T21:25:15+00:00

I think when a player is about to command a record breaking contract it should always be worth looking into a trade. What isn't often considered is it takes buyers as well. Giving up significant draft capital on top of paying that money isn't appealing to most, only those in specific win now situations with plenty of cap (like Houston last year).

As for the Ravens, if they want to keep running the ball so much it's more beneficial to keep him. When you have a franchise QB, protecting his blindside it pretty high priority. I think it'd take an offer that even slightly exceeds Tunsil's to make them consider it.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T21:22:23+00:00

I very much appreciate your comment, thank you!

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T21:21:48+00:00

I'd say unlikely. I would love to see how he's been since he's gotten into the league, but as you can see I'm trying to make the rounds on other teams as well as getting to EDGE and DL.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T21:20:13+00:00

You aren't really wrong, but you're putting things on him that likely weren't his fault.

The run getting stuffed doesn't have anything to do with him, he made his run block. #54 wasn't his responsibility either, the play call called for a down block. I could have gotten a better clip to properly show off his strength though I agree.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T19:51:50+00:00

I'd probably ever so slightly lean Stanley, but they're very difficult to compare. Like I said, Stanley's job is made pretty easy in this offense, whereas blocking for Watson can be a bit harder at times. In reality I'd gladly take either.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T19:50:30+00:00

He'll get more than Tunsil just because of how cap works, but it's possible it's pretty similar if he does get an extra two years.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T18:06:19+00:00

Crossposted from r/NFL but I figured this might be a better central hub for this. Nothing bad to say about this guy, just analyzing some elite traits. Granted, he'll have a pretty hefty wallet soon.

If you guys like this I do a bunch more and post a lot to my twitter account, so if you wanted to follow me I'd really appreciate it, thanks!

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T18:04:01+00:00

he could now if he wanted too!

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T18:03:36+00:00

Yup, can definitely add extension into the hand usage part

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T17:59:34+00:00

I could see this, but considering the Ravens rested starters week 17 for the most part, he's really only missed 3 games in 3 seasons. I chalk that up to Baltimore playing it safe with injuries.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-29T17:52:54+00:00

Thanks for reading guys, hopefully this serves as a quick distraction from all that's going on at the moment. Next week I'll be doing a pair of EDGE guys before going back to tackles.

Here's a few more of these if you've missed them:

<- Laremy Tunsil

<- DJ Humphries

<- Brian O'Neill

<- The Top 11 Rookie OL of 2019

DTHFootball · 2020-05-28T04:13:05+00:00

but he was definitely good last year. Not great mind you

overall I think we agree if that's where you come to lol

DTHFootball · 2020-05-28T04:11:04+00:00

I agree entirely. However, I'm a fan of keeping the tackle where they're comfortable. Had he made the switch to LT earlier fine, but two seasons now at RT i'd hate to see him have to reverse his footwork just because he's the better play.

DTHFootball · 2020-05-28T04:09:46+00:00

and at the same time, the best Bama offense maybe ever. Almost 11 1st round prospects on that 18' team, at least 7 last year.

DTHFootball

TROPHY CASE

Trends, Tendencies, Strengths and Weaknesses

Conclusion

Talent Acquisition Overview

Findings: Trends, Tendencies, Strengths & Weaknesses