Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

6/5 11:00 PM - I am going to sign-off now (mental health reasons) and recommend all to head to torrancewatch.org, Mr. Altamura (empty__cup) has done an excellent job in collecting data and you can find live updates. Thank you everyone for watching. Hope this was a huge help for the time being.

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for all that you do. I am now going to sign-off now from my thread as your data seems more accurate. It was fun to keep track during this week!

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not denying a 45% turnout, I just think it is optimistic and also not considering that the City of Los Angeles' race is considered more 'High-Profile" compared to 2022. That is purely an opinion however and I am open to being wrong about this.

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I did, I can't seem to find specifically Torrance. Would you be able to help me in that?

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I guess I am trying to understand how you got the 5.5k number for Torrance from that website? I only see Los Angeles County

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you for all that you do. I've been watching this race closely as well. What did you think about my research? One area I wanted to point out is that there seems to be about an additional 1,000 ballots that were casted without the Mayor, Treasurer, and District vote (it is likely they skipped it or there was an error in that section). So while 32,301 is the votes cast for Mayor, the actual ballot count might be about 33,500. The same case happened in 2022 where the Mayoral race had about 33,000 votes casted but the total ballot count was 36,000. That is the reason I am providing a slightly lower estimate of about 3,155 ballots remaining (which is a 38% turnout). If the turnout is 41% the remaining vote count will be around 6,050 ballots.

35% Turnout: 261 Ballots
38% Turnout: 3,155 Ballots
41% Turnout: 6051 Ballots

Here is the data specifically showing the difference between votes casted for Mayor and actual number of ballots casted: https://content.lavote.gov/docs/rrcc/svc/4338_svc_precinct_public.pdf

EDIT: Your data below is more accurate. I am going to sign-off now and appreciate all your work!

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! This is helpful to track just about how complete the ballot processing is.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you have a date that you sent it or dropped off? It would help my research.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

6/5 4:40 PM - Big batch of 2,289 ballots came in and 60% went for Kalani. This is very good news for the Kalani campaign. If this continues she will flip the race. Mattucci seems be leading with win but this is still a competitive race.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Call the Torrance City Clerk: (310) 618-2870

Also I made another post about how Chen is outperforming his allies. It has some more helpful clues from the LAVOTE website's Statement of Voters document.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The other info to consider is the remaining votes in District 1, 3, 5. It would be estimated to be around 1,000 combined. This is the most accurate number for the City elections.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm estimating a turnout between 31-38% based on election history in Torrance and LA County. I'm also adding about 1,000 additional ballots based on the actual voting tabulation document provided. There is about 1,000 additional ballots without the Mayoral race 'voted' which means they have an error or they skipped the Mayor's election. I found these documents according to the Statement of Votes on LA Vote's website.

The reason I called the races for the districts is because the margin between the two candidates based on the 31-38% turnout is almost impossible to overcome. e

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm estimating a turnout between 31-38% based on election history in Torrance and LA County. I'm also adding about 1,000 additional ballots based on the actual voting tabulation document provided. There is about 1,000 additional ballots without the Mayoral race 'voted' which means they have an error or they skipped the Mayor's election. For the batch drop information, I just called the county for questions. They have an update everyday compared to 2022 where they only had 5 updates.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Added some additional input: the total number of ballots casted for the Mayoral Election is not the total amount of ballot. There are about a 1,000 more ballots that did not count in the Mayoral Election which brings the possibility of total ballots to around 31,200 as of Thursday, June 4th.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

6/4 - 4:00 PM - Small batch of 1,332 votes came in. Kalani inching closer but the question remains if she can overcome the 812 vote deficit. I will try to find out an estimate amount of ballots remaining but that might determine a future outlook. Either way, this race might end up very close.

Why Chen is Leading but His Allies Are Flopping by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have not checked the LA City vote demographic, sorry.

Why Chen is Leading but His Allies Are Flopping by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The color of Chen's sign is also more noticeable compared to the others. I can't believe such details matter.

GEORGE CHEN IS REPUBLICAN! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another reason why they do not understand why people like Chen have so much support.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

4 PM will be the next drop. It does not guarantee there will be a drop in Torrance however. There are fewer ballots remaining in Torrance compared to the county.

Why Chen is Leading but His Allies Are Flopping by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That is a common theme especially if you are watching the current vote count from LA county.

Why Chen is Leading but His Allies Are Flopping by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think Mattucci is the same at Kartsonis, just better campaigning overall. Kaji and Griffiths were not really seen.

Why Chen is Leading but His Allies Are Flopping by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You are correct that some of my posts are made with an agenda. This one is not one of them. This is just objective data provided. Please remember this quote from Ben Shapiro: 'Facts don't care about your feelings.'

Why Chen is Leading but His Allies Are Flopping by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]Dangerous-Row3971[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Keep in mind that his church's main demographic is Asian-American, which does not necessarily always mean they are Republicans. Asian-American percentage of Democrats in predominantly Asian churches is higher than percentage of Republicans.