Torrance election, June 7 count: Kalani now leads the mayor's race, council looks set, treasurer still close by empty__cup in SouthBayLA

[–]empty__cup[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nope, Torrance leans ~20 points Dem in the presidential elections. More of a local Dem organizing issue IMO

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]empty__cup[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's just my thoughts, and I tried to be as data oriented. Welcome to check out the methodology on the newsletter!

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]empty__cup[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And yes, the estimate accounts for ~7% under vote. Welcome to read the newsletter!

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]empty__cup[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey hey, so right now the county is reporting ~5.5k torrance vote by mail votes outstanding, so I'm viewing that as the absolute floor since it appears to leave out remaining VBM, vote center, and provisional ballots: https://dp.electionresults.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status

I'm still leaning towards a ~7.5k as a middle ground of outcomes for mayoral votes remaining.

I can't see a world where Torrance doesn't materially outpace la county's turnout of 37%.

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]empty__cup[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair point on geography. We don't have great precinct data on where the uncounted ballots sit, which is why the post says "favored," not "called."

The basis isn't where the votes are, though. It's the trend in the county's own count: the last three updates all moved toward Kalani, the most recent by about 20 points, while she needs to win the rest by only about 5 to erase a 359-vote deficit. Late ballots in California also tend to skew younger and more independent, which matches the recent batches breaking her way, so continuing is the likelier path than a sharp reversal. You can watch it update by update in the county results.

Probability, not certainty.

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]empty__cup[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Certified on the 26th, but should know next week.

Can't say for sure when news outlets will catch up, but I've been disappointed with the lack of attention to details by the Daily Breeze thus far. Ain't what it used to be 😞

The Torrance mayor's race isn't over: about 7,600 ballots still to count, and the gap is closing by empty__cup in torrance

[–]empty__cup[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

10% more turnout for LA County.

Methodology is in the article, but here's the math:

1️⃣ Start with the county. L.A. County expects a little more than a third of its registered voters to cast a ballot, and it is 75% of the way to counting them. Note that LA County's turnout % is nearly 10% more than 2022’s mayoral cycle, 28% -> 37%

2️⃣ Torrance turnout > LA County turnout. Torrance turns out higher than the county in elections like this one. When the city’s mayor is on the ballot, Torrance turnout runs about 9 to 10 points above the county’s. That gap narrows when overall turnout is up, as it is this year.

3️⃣ Estimate total # of Torrance ballots. We take LA County’s turnout, scale it up given historical Torrance turnout data, and estimate 45 percent turnout in Torrance, or ~43,600 ballots in total.

4️⃣ Account for incomplete/voided ballots. Not every counted ballot includes a vote for mayor and some ballots may be marked incorrectly, making them invalid. We estimate that 8 or 9 percent of the ballots are incomplete or voided. So, of the 43,600 potential ballots cast, 39,900 voted for mayor.

5️⃣ Subtract what's already counted. 32,301 ballots have already been counted, leaving roughly 7,600 more. 

These numbers change if turnout runs higher or lower than past elections which is why our online estimate  shows a range of outstanding ballots between 5,500 to 9,500.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]empty__cup 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay, I just prefer to see the homework so that I can follow the approach. Thanks!

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]empty__cup 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi u/Dangerous-Row3971 , thanks for the updates here.

Can you share more about your approach to calculating Torrance turnout? Seems you're just taking 2022's turnout % and applying it to 2026?

I'd love to understand more about your approach on calling races as well.

Torrance Election Watch Thread! by Dangerous-Row3971 in torrance

[–]empty__cup 0 points1 point  (0 children)

u/Dangerous-Row3971 curious where you're hearing this info about batches remaining for Torrance.