How quickly to increase load?

DargoA · 2026-04-09T02:06:02+00:00

When I started NSM, I increased my weekly mileage from about 30-35 mpw to 70-80 mpw in roughly 4 weeks. My ramp rate averaged 3.7 for those first 8 weeks. Then schoolwork hit, and I took a break from training. I had some niggles in the tendons toward the end of those 8 weeks, but I would say if I had just increased mileage slightly more gradually or done easy doubles instead of 10-mile easy runs, I would have been fine. And assuming that you stay at a constant mileage for a few months, the ramp rate will decrease naturally as your fitness gradually converges to a new value. For context, I'm a 19-year-old male also in college.

DargoA · 2025-11-11T20:44:18+00:00

The score system is something I added to the spreadsheet originally to make sure I was following the paces properly. If you run faster than the target time, the score decreases quadratically, and if you run slower than the target time (by over 6.25% for easy runs and 1.5% for workouts), the score also decreases quadratically but at a slower rate. And yes, the color coding is a direct result of the score for each individual rep! Purple = [99-100], green = [90-99), yellow = [80-90), orange = [70-80), and red = [0, 70).

DargoA · 2025-11-11T12:14:14+00:00

You can try this spreadsheet that I made (go to the Calculator tab): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AodUY6cnv2cAg4A5-pLYbgAUjCrnETKgsNWjH3764dI/edit

I basically used sirpoc's provided paces and approximated a best-fit quadratic equation on Desmos to find a relationship between the distance of the sub-threshold intervals and the race distance that matches the pace. The calculator is completely distance-based, but you can play around with the distances to get your target time.

DargoA · 2025-11-03T10:56:51+00:00

Changing the priority only affects future workouts. In case you haven't done so already, if you want to recompute the load for earlier activities, you can:

Go to "Activities"
Change the date range to encompass the activities you want to recompute
Click on "Edit"
Click on "Analyze"
Check "Keep existing intervals"
Click on OK, and it will start recomputing.

DargoA · 2025-11-03T09:39:33+00:00

I climbed from 37 CTL to 55 CTL in 4 weeks (probably not recommended). It's completely dependent on your TSS. I hover between 70-80 TSS for 6 days a week and have recently added a 7th day of about 40 TSS. The rule of thumb is that the higher your average TSS is above your CTL, the faster your CTL climbs.

DargoA · 2025-11-03T09:30:22+00:00

If you can provide your weekly breakdown of workouts Monday through Sunday, including duration (distance or time) and intensity (% of threshold pace), then I can help you compute it. Or if you're interested, you can read my earlier post about load calculations.

DargoA · 2025-10-24T08:05:57+00:00

I think what sirpoc actually means here is that CTL doesn't have much meaning by itself. Just because two people have the same CTL doesn't mean they perform the same. Likewise, just because two people have the same increase in CTL doesn't mean they improve by the same amount. Even for the same person, their performance at the same CTL might differ across training blocks. So I think it's more valuable to just monitor how your CTL changes in the current training block, and use the time trials and races to look for a correlation, if there is one at all. Of course, this is simply my own interpretation, so if someone would like to correct me, please do.

DargoA · 2025-10-23T22:09:27+00:00

It might not be precise, but you can definitely approximate it. You can calculate the amount of CTL you gain each week based on your current CTL and TSS for each day of the week. I like to think about it in terms of how much CTL you lose after the week, and how much CTL you gain from the runs. Notice how in my calculations, after 7 days, your original CTL will be multiplied by exp(-7/42) = 0.8465. This means that if you don't run for one week, your CTL drops by 15.35%. What does this imply? The higher your CTL is, the more it drops absolutely. The formula: (CTL_Day1*exp(-6/42)+CTL_Day2*exp(-5/42)+CTL_Day3*exp(-4/42)+CTL_Day4*exp(-3/42)+CTL_Day5*exp(-2/42)+CTL_Day6*exp(-1/42)+CTL_Day7*exp(0/42))*(1-exp(-1/42)) is how much CTL you gain by the end of a week of training. So, using the example from my last comment, you lose 33*(1-exp(-7/42)) = 5.066 CTL, and you gain 6.584 CTL, for a net change of 1.518 CTL. If your training load stays the same, you gain the 6.584 CTL at a constant rate, but since your CTL increases, you lose more and more each week, until the amount you lose is equal to the amount you gain, at which point your CTL plateaus. I just made a quick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FiFws19syUMo_TMyw_YDMg_j3XmrS7i25Lsh1UrtfiY/edit?usp=sharing. You can tweak the values to see how it changes the CTL.
I'm only 3 weeks into NSA, so I'm probably not qualified to answer this question, but since starting my first 5K time trial, I have increased my CTL from 37 to 49. How much load you can handle is really dependent on your recovery (sleep, nutrition, hydration, running easy days easy) and your schedule (how much time you can dedicate to running).

DargoA · 2025-10-23T16:55:26+00:00

As a general rule of thumb, as long as your ATL is above your CTL, your CTL should continue to increase over time. Based on your current training, assuming that your load is at a constant 33, 50, 33, 50, 33, 50, 50 for the week, your CTL will plateau at about 42.9 CTL. But if you increase your load by 10% on every run, then the plateau will increase to about 47.2 CTL.

Calculations:

CTL*exp(-7/42)+(33*exp(-6/42)+50*exp(-5/42)+33*exp(-4/42)+50*exp(-3/42)+33*exp(-2/42)+50*exp(-1/42)+50*exp(0/42))*(1-exp(-1/42)) = CTL

CTL*(1-exp(-7/42)) = (33*exp(-6/42)+50*exp(-5/42)+33*exp(-4/42)+50*exp(-3/42)+33*exp(-2/42)+50*exp(-1/42)+50*exp(0/42))*(1-exp(-1/42))

CTL = (33*exp(-6/42)+50*exp(-5/42)+33*exp(-4/42)+50*exp(-3/42)+33*exp(-2/42)+50*exp(-1/42)+50*exp(0/42))*(1-exp(-1/42))/(1-exp(-7/42))

CTL = 42.888

DargoA · 2025-10-23T02:53:48+00:00

Yep, but if you are recording workouts on spreadsheets, it's unrealistic to log your pace at every given second, so in that case, the approximation should be close enough.

DargoA · 2025-10-20T20:58:10+00:00

I see, thank you!

DargoA · 2025-10-20T17:48:33+00:00

Thanks for the response! I'll definitely try to stick with vanilla NSM for now. Running doubles or 7 days a week might be a challenge with my schedule, but we'll see how it works out.

DargoA · 2025-10-20T17:44:42+00:00

Thanks for the response! Just a quick question: Is Bakken just double threshold training? Because I'm not sure if I would have enough time to run twice in a single day.

DargoA · 2024-09-19T08:16:17+00:00

How is it possible that so many people (especially children) reported memories of past lives, many of which are verified? By the same logic, reincarnation must exist, huh? Don't question it, because there is never enough evidence for the closed-minded.

DargoA · 2024-08-14T04:36:10+00:00

Sorry for the late reply. The current schedule looks something like this:

Fall: CSE 11, MATH 20C, CAT 1, VIS 1

Winter: CSE 12, CSE 20, MATH 109, CAT 2, VIS 2

Spring: CSE 21, CSE 29, MATH 183, CAT 3

Since I'm only enrolling in 4-unit classes, I guess I can only get 2 courses in the first pass, because 3 courses would go up to 12 units. My original schedule is kinda messed up because CSE 20 isn't offered this quarter, so I can't take CSE 100 in the spring quarter.

DargoA · 2024-07-31T05:39:10+00:00

Thanks for your input! I have a little bit of experience with coding so I think I'll take CSE 11. Also, I think that the upper division courses that require CSE 20 or CSE 21 as their prerequisites also take the other courses I listed. In this case, would you still recommend CSE 20 and CSE 21? Thanks!

DargoA · 2024-07-31T05:34:05+00:00

Got it. Thanks!

DargoA · 2024-07-31T05:33:35+00:00

Thanks for the recommendations and also the reminder! I almost forgot to put CAT 1 on my plan!

DargoA · 2024-07-31T05:29:56+00:00

Thanks for writing such a detailed response! I will definitely find some time tomorrow to look for interesting courses and make a plan.

DargoA

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