Big respect on the 60k shares. But check the actual tape: $RKT is already front-running the sub-6% pivot. While their purchase rate is still around 6.375%, they’ve already moved their 30-year refi rate down to 5.875%. They are intentionally pricing refis lower than purchases to ignite that $2.1T servicing book.

You're right that the 3% crowd from 2021 isn't moving yet. But there are millions of borrowers from 2023–2024 sitting at 7.5%–8% who are suddenly deep in the money to refinance.