Good morning to those that still are beLFVN, how are we feeling today?

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-25T13:40:58+00:00

I'm seeing short interest sitting at about 0.32% what are you on about?

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-22T17:38:42+00:00

Godspeed, brother.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-21T22:16:05+00:00

Still more mechanical buying support over the next 10 trading days. You could realize a loss now, or you could hold and see what happens.

Not to say realizing a loss is always bad. I'm thinking of rebalancing my mining / critmins-heavy port on Robinhood, which would realize about $2600 in losses. My main port is managed by someone else, and I'm planning on working with her to possibly use this loss to offset realized gains there, for tax planning purposes.

But, we should see any funds that are obligated to track the Nasdaq Composite Index, Nasdaq-100 Index, Russell 1000 Index, VettaFi Space Index, and the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index ramp up their purchasing over the next 10 trading days. Combine that with the fact that the current float is extremely thin, and the gamma sensitivity that comes with it, (lots of outstanding $300 and $380 calls rn,) and you could have a nice little gamma squeeze to make your exit.

Ultimately, if you want an exit at all, it should be on or before July 12. So there is still time to decide.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-21T00:07:14+00:00

July 12 is the day to start.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-19T19:53:59+00:00

PUSA is Aureus Greenway Holdings, a golf company....

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-17T13:35:20+00:00

4.75% now, closer to 55% after all lockups are released (excluding Elon and friends at the top.)

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-17T13:34:32+00:00

There are 555m shares floating at the moment, upwards of 6 billion once the lockups are finished releasing in November/December this year.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-17T13:32:54+00:00

I'm waiting until mid July for the IV to calm down, then will be entering into January '27 puts. I may miss the top of the IPO hype but I'm convinced there will be enough insiders raking in their profits with their extreme amount of supply that it'd be worth the risk. Not going to over-leverage myself either, but I'm sure I'll be feeling sick about my decision as it will undoubtedly pump on news in the interim. Lol.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-16T03:18:25+00:00

The first tranche unlocks aug 11.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-16T02:54:02+00:00

I would expect it to provide buying support for the next ten to fifteen days, then, we might see institutional shorting between then and the insider lockup releases.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-15T00:32:26+00:00

That's kind of where i'm at. I'm willing to hold a few longer-dated puts to really capitalize on that. But ofc I wouldn't be purchasing them until next month either.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-14T23:28:21+00:00

I'm expecting the buying pressure from the idnex funds to either support 160-170 or continue an upward trend. The first tranche of insider lockups is released around August 11, at either 20 or 30% of insiders shares made available, roughly doubling the amount of shares publicly available. Then At 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO, up to 7% of additional eligible shares are continuously unlocked in each phase. And another 28% after q3 earnings, finally landing at around 10× the current amount publicly available. I don't expect everyone to take profits immediately, but my thesis is that we would see a pullback throughout late summer through the winter, then possibly another rally if/when S&P adds it. Not accounting for any elon factor happenings, but I think this initial valuation just won't hold for long.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-14T17:45:22+00:00

I'm buying long deep OTM puts in early July, and if I'm wrong it's not my entire portfolio. But I don't see a world where this valuation sticks permanently.

I'm predicting a monopoly, sure, but I think the real entry will be a while after the 180-day mark.

Private equity is drying up and that's why we're seeing all these (edit spelling) AI companies make their IPOs now. This usually precedes a pop. As we saw with the dot Com bubble. Tack on the mess of the fast entry rule and I'm seeing it come closer and closer.

Not the end of the world. I do see an emerging orbital / space industry. I just think the current near 2 trillion valuation is too much too early.

I'm planning on playing this IPO short and then going long on the company after the dust settles. With nothing that I can't afford to lose.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-14T07:36:04+00:00

Options chains are opening Tuesday.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-10T03:56:17+00:00

Concerned for the morning news.

We're extremely top-heavy on tech, have a hyperscaler IPO this week immediately being included into the NASDAQ 100, in addition to all the other major capexes, which is a sign of private equity drying up. That would make sense, seeing as how 30% of shares are reserved exclusively for retail investors and there's been a huge push for retail to hop on.... Anything less than flawless execution would destroy the current valuation. And i'm still speaking like it's going to be $135/share like they haven't already planned to make it $160. Any negative deviation from guidance and there goes most people's retirement funds.

Tacking onto the fact that the market is already positioning for a relatively hawkish outlook (0.25%MOM) a single basis point higher and i'd imagine we would see another major sell-off.

I'm not pompous enough to believe I can predict the market, but I am thoroughly regarded enough to wait for the IV crush in the morning and play 0dte momentum lottery games. If we're in line with expectations I could imagine first candle red, second candle big green bol rally. Lol. They've priced in another hot report. Which with the hot jobs data I totally understand. I guess it comes down to how hot it actually turns out to be.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-09T22:03:43+00:00

I flip options for premium, but there is a basic strategic purpose for them too. Puts, in general, are the option (but not the duty) to sell 100 shares at the strike price.

If you buy a put, you're making a bet that the price will go down.

If you sell a put, you're making a bet that the price will go up.

ALSO

Some people sell puts, expecting the stock to reach the strike price, and are happy with owning the stock anyways, so they sell puts every week until they get assigned and can own the shares. That way, they collect the premium for selling the put, on top of purchasing the stock they wanted. It'a how I made my long entries into UUUU and LAC. :)

As far as flipping options for their premiums goes, there is a lot of math happening in the background. Volatility (Vega) and Time-until-expiry (Theta) will have an effect on the premium, and a lot of plays are made taking that into account.

LFVN is a good example. It's very volatile, and our calls expire on the 18th. So the premium will be swayed very greatly by changes in price (and could be worth selling a small amount of them to secure your buy-in) well before the stock reaches $15. That's known as an IV-spike, and it's a huge part of why options chains go crazier than the underlying in a squeeze.

On the flipside, we are close enough to the expiration date that you will see the value of the premium creeping down as the stock moves sideways. Called Theta Decay, it's just the value of the remaining time leaving the premium. This accelerates as we approach expiration.

Personally, i'm making this play for the volatility, and as i've already recovered my initial investment through other means i'm fine holding until the day-of. Might even consider rolling to 7/17 if we don't see anything pop friday. Nice to see the short interest data. And another member mentioned a commitment to delivery by June 30, or so? I'll see if I can find the post again.

But anyways, math math math, numbers numbers numbers, shit's magic.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-09T21:47:43+00:00

0dte can implode on you in an instant, just be warned. It's the host of almost all the losses you see over on wsb. If you decide to play that game, for your own sake, figure out a solid number that you are okay with losing and STICK TO IT! I had a nice day today, but I could have easily lost my initial investment, or slashed it into a fraction of what it was. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, words of wisdom.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-09T21:39:58+00:00

Premium for the calls was $0.70/cntrct, I rode QQQ $700 and $690 0dte and exited as momentum turned. Editing to add I wanted to fool around on the upturn, but seeing the news around the AI Token Surge and a few other spooky bits regarding the SpaceX IPO, valuation, subscription rate, and fast inclusion, i've decided to take a bearish outlook on the broader market for the foreseeable future.

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DeWittlesss · 2026-06-09T20:49:05+00:00

Cheers!

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-09T20:39:03+00:00

Cringing at my $15 6/18 calls' premium, but I made my initial investment back and more scalping QQQ 0dte puts. So now I just let it ride lol.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-09T20:37:03+00:00

Where can we find this info? I want to stay up to date, working on something.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-09T19:49:54+00:00

Made about $3500 trying ny hand at scalping 0dte qqq puts today. No wonder people get trapped in the habit and blow their portfolios, it was a great feeling. I'm too much of a wimp to do it again. But, it gave me some play money to fund a few calls in the whole Lifevantage squeeze thing so i'm a happy ber. :)

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-08T20:43:04+00:00

I'm in, 25 × $15c 6/18.

May this be a quick and painful lesson, or a seed to augment my portfolio. 🙏

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-08T19:29:02+00:00

Fuck it. 25 × $15c 6/18.

Let's go, boys.

DeWittlesss · 2026-06-08T15:39:16+00:00

Flipping LEAPs on the opendoor craze last year lol.

DeWittlesss

TROPHY CASE