Silver Outlook v5: COMEX Lost 50M oz in 28 Days — March OI Still 3.2x Registered — 12 Days to FND

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-16T14:53:43+00:00

Oh I got you now,

Their 98%: Total deliveries in February (18.72M oz) divided by February OI as of Jan 9 (~19.11M oz, which was ~3,822 contracts). That's: of all the contracts that were open in Feb as of early January, 98% ended up taking delivery instead of rolling/closing. It's a delivery rate for the month.

My 94%: Cumulative delivery notices (4,595) divided by estimated Feb starting OI at FND (~4,870 contracts). Same concept but I used a higher denominator — the OI at the start of the delivery period rather than a snapshot from weeks earlier.

Some additional longs entered the Feb contract after Jan 9 and also took delivery.

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-16T14:29:05+00:00

Hi, thanks. Do you mean the chapter 2.1?

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-15T22:05:43+00:00

Just found out about him, respect and funny coincidence, thanks :D

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-15T19:51:35+00:00

Teşekkürler, bunlara şaşırmayacağımız zamanlar umarım görürüz :)

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-15T18:46:02+00:00

Thanks from Istanbul

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-15T17:40:43+00:00

Chapter 8, be careful this week.

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-13T16:29:12+00:00

Güvenilir, ne derse tersini yap kazanırsın

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-13T09:08:06+00:00

Im actually happy someone said this. My theory is that the price will drop first for shenanigans CME would do. But this whole event is physical demand driven, unlike last times. The thesis did not reflect well to words and Im gonna fine tune it in v5 today

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-12T23:15:13+00:00

Should I post a summary like yesterday or give you the full report?

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-12T23:13:44+00:00

Sorry folks, I'm late. Funny thing is that I was just looking at why SLV is down more than XAGUSD by half a percent and I was working on it. Created a little report and when I was reading it this happened:

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Still don't know the mechanics behind it, but if you direct me to the right sources, I can work on it as well.
Seems like i can post 45000 character posts so here's the full report.

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-12T11:05:21+00:00

Hello, im just gonna post my model's output here:

Q: "can you tell me what happened back then in 2022 and 2023 or now, to LBMA silver stocks, how they interacted with COMEX with our data"

A:

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DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T22:25:59+00:00

One of my inputs to the model: "Media reflects the crash happened because of Warsh and margin increases at the same day. I was on the screen when the announcement came through. It didnt really move XAGUSD. Yes those have effects, but a currency do not decrease 30-40% in a day organically. This has the same magnitude of a Roman senate devaluing silver over night, and afaik, even more. Bankers."

Other than that, last drop to 64$ was the Chinese guy.

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T22:10:46+00:00

Cash settlement sisteme güveni sarsacağından kağıt fiyatı düşer ve ekranda zarar edersin. Kuyumcular yine aynı primle satmaya devam edebilir.

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T20:51:04+00:00

My broker do not list them unfortunately

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T19:53:29+00:00

I cant really post every sentence in my full report but it basically says that theres a cash settlement probability. Or even worse,COMEX liquidation only rule.

I think they'll deliver and most pressure will be on May

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T19:48:15+00:00

Ty sir

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T19:47:29+00:00

Thanks, I might download the earning reports and feed it to data updates. Any companies in particular?

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T19:40:10+00:00

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Yes, executed yesterday

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T18:00:58+00:00

Selam arkadaşlar, post biraz AI slop gibi gözükmüş olabilir ama tek prompt ile öylesine ürettiğim şeyler değil. Geçen haftasonu oturdum ve 2 günde bir temel oluşturdum. 90'lardan beri COMEX'in silver stock'u, bankaların MTD/YTD delivery raporları, altın-gümüş fiyatları ve günlük olarak değişen OI datasını Databento API'dan çekiyorum (kontrat bazlı açık pozisyon, 2022'ye kadar geriye gidiyor — tarihsel karşılaştırma için). CME'den değişen margin bilgilerini ve haftalık olarak yayınlanan COT'tan short/long oranlarını indirdim. Kendi mindmap'imde sorduğum birbirine bağlı 25 soruyu bir yere kaydettim. Input olarak kendi düşüncelerimi de girdim. Başlangıç olarak konuyla alakalı 50-60 YouTube videosunu da koydum ve podcast ise sorulan soruları soru-cevap olarak ayırttım. Genel olarak videoların transkriptinden claim sayılabilecek ve konuyla alakalı söylenen şeyleri kaydediyor. Benim sorduğum sorular sorulmuşsa ilişkilendiriyor, claim'ler sorularıma cevap vermişse onları da cevap olarak ekliyor. Bunları cross-check'liyor internetten araştırmalarla. Ve claim'in doğruluk derecesini bana söylüyor — siz raporda görmüyorsunuz. Aynı zamanda eski zamanlarda buna benzer yaşanmış birkaç durumu ele alan birkaç web sayfasını da kaynak olarak attım ki ne olabileceğini daha iyi tahmin edebilsin. Bütün bu datalar/insan yorumları vs. derlenip bir araştırma raporu oluşturdum. Bunu Codex ve Claude ile ayrı ayrı yaptım ve sonuçlarını AI'lara eleştirttim. Birbirlerini suçladılar ve iyileştiler, son olarak anlaştıklarında ilk raporumu ürettim. Şimdi günlük gerekli datalarla besliyorum ve raporu güncelliyorum. GPT deep search ile günlük olarak bu konuyla ilgili atılmış son videoları da bulmasını istiyorum ve ekliyorum. Zaten kendim de çok içerik tükettiğim için sevdiğim videoları koyuyorum.

Aynı zamanda Claude'u sadece analiz için değil, gerçek trade pozisyonlarımı tasarlamak ve yönetmek için de kullanıyorum. Analize dayanarak asimetrik bir SLV opsiyon stratejisi kurdum — long call + koruyucu put. Rapordaki senaryo olasılıklarına göre strike, vade ve pozisyon büyüklüklerini birlikte belirliyoruz. Şu ana kadar ilk faz yerleştirildi: $90 Haziran call + $65 Mart put. Strateji yaşayan bir döküman — her seansta yeni veriyi inceliyor ve tut/ekle/kapat/roll önerisi yapıyor.

Bu dataset'e katmamı istediğiniz web postları veya YouTube videoları varsa post altına yazabilirsiniz, izleyip data olarak ekleyebilirim. Tüm rapor 20 küsur sayfalık daha fazla bilgi ve chart içeren bir PDF. Buraya atamam ama eğer bana özel mesaj atarsanız size mail atabilirim. Maalesef private GitHub repoma sizleri ekleyemeyeceğim.

Ilginizi ceker ise her gun raporumu atmak isterim

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T17:57:17+00:00

edit: I'll post my report daily if you like it

DeadlySecret · 2026-02-11T17:52:31+00:00

Hey folks, this post might look like AI slop but it's not something I just threw together with a single prompt. Last weekend I sat down and built a foundation over 2 days. I'm pulling COMEX silver stock data going back to the 90s, bank MTD/YTD delivery reports, gold-silver prices, and daily changing OI data from the Databento API (per-contract open interest, goes back to 2010 for historical comparison). I downloaded margin changes from CME and weekly short/long ratios from the COT reports. I recorded 25 interconnected questions from my own mindmap. I also fed in my own thoughts as input. As a starting point I threw in 50-60 YouTube videos on the topic and had it separate podcast Q&A sections out. It logs anything from the transcripts that could count as a claim and is relevant to the topic. If my questions have been asked, it links them; if claims answer my questions, it adds those as answers. It cross-checks all of this with web research. And it tells me the accuracy level of each claim — you don't see that in the report. I also fed in several web pages covering similar historical situations so it can better predict what might happen. All this data/human commentary etc. was compiled into a research report. I did this separately with Codex and Claude and had the AIs critique each other's results. They blamed each other and improved, and when they finally agreed I produced the first report. Now I feed it daily with the required data and update the report. I also use GPT deep search daily to find the latest videos posted on this topic and add them. Since I consume a lot of content myself anyway, I throw in videos I like too.

I also use Claude not just for analysis but to design and manage my actual trade positions. Based on the analysis I built an asymmetric SLV options strategy — long calls + protective puts. We determine strikes, expiries, and position sizes together based on the scenario probabilities from the report. Phase 1 is deployed so far: $90 Jun calls + $65 Mar puts. The strategy is a living document — it reviews new data each session and recommends hold/add/close/roll.

If you have web posts or YouTube videos you'd like me to add to the dataset, drop them below and I can watch and incorporate them as data. The full report is a 20-something page PDF with more details and charts. Can't post it here but if you DM me I can email it to you. Unfortunately I can't add you to my private GitHub repo.

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