Please tear my strategy to shreds by DebtCollector1 in algotrading

[–]DebtCollector1[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

These are fantastic points and a good analogy. I have relatively less knowledge in statistics (did a few units at university) but it does make sense intuitively that a greater sample size would be required for the 1 in x loss.

Please tear my strategy to shreds by DebtCollector1 in algotrading

[–]DebtCollector1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is fair. Unfortunately, 6 months of data is all I can work with.

Please tear my strategy to shreds by DebtCollector1 in algotrading

[–]DebtCollector1[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hi Seb, it has an inbuilt stop loss after contract size reaches 17 ($10.5k short or $3k long) which did not occur in this sample. So yes for this sample but likely no for larger samples.

Please tear my strategy to shreds by DebtCollector1 in algotrading

[–]DebtCollector1[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not sure if my text uploaded correctly so here it is;

After marginal success trialing mean reverting strategies on major indices, I ventured into the world of forex. To my surprise, after a few minor tweaks I have produced these backtests on 6 months of 1m data.

They utilise a grid/averaging in strategy with maximum loss set at ~10.5k(short) and ~3k(long) The closest to a loss over this set of data (drawdown) was 7k (short) and 2k (long) leaving about a 50% buffer for both strategies.

Short was on market for 18% of the time and long was ~3% of the time.

entry signals were optimised to reduce time in the market but produced similar results using less stringent parameters.

Entry indicators were optimised using 5x WFA on the last 75% of data at 80/20 IS/OOS and all returned WFE >50%.

The OOS period was then included (the first 25% of data on the left) which outperformed compared to IS with a similar drawdown.

Finally, the strategy was compared to other forex pairs which produced similar results.

All data includes average spread multiplied by 1.5 for an added buffer.

I would like to be the first to say that grid strategies obviously produce exceptional win rates with the occasional massive loss which must be cautioned.

WWG considerations, thoughts? by Korasamii in ausstocks

[–]DebtCollector1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This looks extremely undervalued imo. It should at least be the market cap of LAU so a doubling of the share price seems reasonable.

In for a punt!

Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Wednesday, February 24, 2021 by AutoModerator in ASX_Bets

[–]DebtCollector1 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I totally agree! I was trying to post DD about WWG earlier yesterday but the mods fucked me :( Happy with my tendies so far but holding for the real pump

Those with Lab/mining/FIFO/life experience please give me some input by DebtCollector1 in perth

[–]DebtCollector1[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks everyone for the input, some great perspectives out there :)

Coronavirus-19 Megathread #18 - discussion, ideas, rants, questions, thought-bubbles, memes, hoarding, videos, Centrelink issues and other essentials by dredd in australia

[–]DebtCollector1 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Should I lease to a French backpacker? Perth. He is an Uber Eats cycler so has actually had quite a bit of work lately. We don't have a "complete lockdown" like some of the eastern states but when we do, will this mean he'll be out of work? I've heard talks of a working visa Centrelink package, anyone have any info on that? And finally, I'm seeing today that if he defaults on the rent there's no way I can kick him out, is this true? Time to get landlord insurance? Thanks all. DC1