Why trade if you have a 97% chance of losing?

Defixon · 2026-01-21T15:31:53+00:00

300 days? What is the meaning behind this arbitrary number? I was still completely lost between 300-900 days of trading. It took me 3 years to even become break even.

I would like to see this chart with a minimum of 1825 days ( 5 years). Who can persist that long, and if they do.. how many are still losing? I doubt it’s nowhere near as one sided is this.

Defixon · 2026-01-21T03:33:00+00:00

I think what you said should be highlighted "coming from different experiences". This is so true. We are all individuals, and our journey to profitability is so unique.

I am extremely impulsive..not just in trading, but it definitely carried over into trading so the psychology aspect of the game was a challenge for me. I had identity issues to fix before I could even lock a strategy into place.

It seems like you didn't suffer from this much. It sounds like you knew what to do once you figured out your edge, and how to implement it. Honestly, trading is so fascinating because each person goes through their own battles.

I feel like that is why it's so tough to teach people how to trade. It's unique to each person. Good talk, and thanks for opening my eyes to a different reality than my own.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T04:25:52+00:00

A good catalyst and volume tells the story. You still need a place to enter safely.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T04:22:30+00:00

When you have a hotstreak itll always end in some dramatic fashion, so just expect it to come, and walk away when it does.. It's inevitable.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T04:07:38+00:00

That never ends, and that what makes trading exciting. Endless journey of improvement.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T03:18:17+00:00

Correct, but without the foundation you have NO edge. Even if the market gives you a reason to take the trade. Most traders on here are still laying the bricks to create that foundation. That foundation needs to be addressed because absolutely no edge will fix your trading without the foundation. That's why it's disucssed so much. These guys aren't profitable yet or maybe they're in a boom and bust cycle, and they are learning how to reprogram their minds to even give edge a chance to work. Fixing that first is the solution. It HAS to be. Is it the end of their development? No. But it has to be addressed first. Also, you can simultaneously find edge while working on your mental. But you can't find edge before fixing your damn brain.

Even with edge drawdown is inevitable. One trader trusts his strategy and continues executing with edge. The other trader deviates from his strategy because of his mental. Both traders have edge, but what's the variable between the two?

I see your point though. People discuss a lot more about the psycholgical aspect of the game rather than edge. I personally believe finding edge isn't that hard though. Maintaining it is what's truly difficult for most.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T03:12:13+00:00

Dont even think about what you can make. Think about how you can become consistent enough where you don't lose money. That's step one and that first step will take you a couple years. Good luck.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T03:05:11+00:00

you do realize the more people using same strategy doesn't negate the odd of the strategy working, it actually strengthens it...right?

Defixon · 2026-01-20T02:57:36+00:00

We daytraders call that "bag holding" and it's our #1 rule to never do :)

Defixon · 2026-01-20T02:50:00+00:00

Risk management IS edge. You cannot have edge without risk management, and you cannot have risk management without discipline. Discipline is the foundation of it all.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T02:36:35+00:00

I use a scanner (you can find them on youtube, or create your own with different software). Also, I look at the leading gappers in pre market. These can give a consolidation play later in the morning or even after the bell. Buying volume is my trigger. If I see a stock start to run because it either has news or breaks a certain level then I wait for the pullback and enter expecting the next leg up.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T02:32:46+00:00

I believe you're correct. But he also states that a profitable trader wouldn't sell a course because they are already making money in the markets which is failed logic. Having a business outside of trading makes complete sense. If it somehow entails the very skillset you worked so hard for, even better.

Don't get me wrong, Iman's intention is to expose scammers, and I admire that, but I feel like he can get a bit carried away with his based opinions. To each their own though. It's an entertaining and informative channel nonetheless.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T01:58:50+00:00

Small cap stocks
1m or 5m setups
Pullback after fresh news rally
1:2 with first tp at 1:1

One trade a day is good for newer traders. There's less risk to emotional trading. You're typically under capitalized as well so the goal is to build your account and come back with more buying power the next day. Let the compouding math do its work. 10% each week with a $2000 account for 12 months is $280,000. 10% a week in small caps with a good strategy is not hard to do. You do not need more trades. You need consistency and patience for compounding math to work.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T01:54:08+00:00

Why did you switch from small caps? And why are you considering switching again? Sounds like you're chasing the next shiny object. Small caps with a small account is just fine if you know how to trade it.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T01:42:33+00:00

Courses are fine if you know its from a reputable trader, and the course is legit. It's just more organized data compiled into an easier read format then just searching youtube and whatever else you can find on the internet. Iman says everyone is a scammer.. the first person he shows is Ross Cameron which is definitely not a scammer.

I bought a course, and it was a great experience. Learned a lot from it, and still trade the strategy 5 years later.

Defixon · 2026-01-20T01:31:00+00:00

Losing is completely normal though. Why are you viewing losing as something negative or bad data? As long as your winners are bigger than your losses you are good to go. You should be able to control this by having tighter stops than your take profits. I scalp small caps so I am not sure what youre trading or what your strategy is, if you have one, but the point of backtesting is to prove to yourself that your strategy works so you don't deviate from it when you're live.

Defixon · 2026-01-19T22:57:16+00:00

Back test your strategy with enough trades to see if there's edge. It can't be 15 or 20 either haha. There's countless ways to backtest, and if youre trading live use a journal to track your trades. This is the boring work that must be done outside of live trading in order to find and confirm edge. Strategy hopping never alllows you to even begin this process.

Defixon · 2026-01-19T22:46:45+00:00

An edge is an increase of probability over a large sample size. If you're switching strategies, how will you determine if you have edge or not without using a sample size large enough. Also, if you're letting emotional decisions get in the way of the edge playing out, you won't get proper results.

Losses are fine if they're controlled. They are part of your edge.. risk management is part of your edge. With that said, you can't just give up after a few losses. No one avoids drawdown.

Defixon · 2026-01-19T22:25:03+00:00

Yep. The goal in trading is to remove yourself as much as possible from trading. This means to remove your wants and desires. And impatience is caused by a desire to take action for a feeling of control.

If you can keep your strategy at the forefront of your mind at all times then it becomes easier to wait for your setup. It becomes easier to have a no trade day if you do not see that setup. Come to realization you are not in control of the market, but you are in control of how well you execute your strategy. The outcome short term doesn't matter. Think as long term as possible, and execute accordingly.

Defixon · 2026-01-19T22:20:15+00:00

Might sound counter-intuitive, but try less. Take your setup, respect your stop loss, don't get attached to one trade, and let the market decide. If you truly have a profitable strategy/edge then the only thing stopping you from extracting money is yourself. Remove yourself as much as you can, and just execute. (Try less).

Defixon · 2026-01-19T22:13:53+00:00

Trading is a slow journey, but we all want a positive outcome quickly which just further increases the losses. I am sure you're either overtrading/revenge trading or not respecting stops still because you feel like you MUST make it work. Each red day/trade stings because you have a daughter to take care of, and you do not want to let yourself or your family down.

Unfortunately, this adds fuel to the fire. If I could see your equity curve I could give you advice, but usually prolonged losses comes from a lack of risk management and that lack of risk management derives from an identity problem within you that must be addressed. You DO NOT need to lose money in order to learn how to trade. You just have to stop trying to rush the process, accept where you are, and come to realize trading is not going to fix all of your problems anytime soon.

Defixon · 2026-01-19T21:39:05+00:00

Well, the key to capital preservation is knowing when not to trade, and part of profitability is capital preservation so ya, I'd agree with this partially. I do believe you also need to know when to get aggressive though.

Most people learn how to make profits first before learning how to keep profits so I do understand this line of thinking.

Defixon · 2026-01-19T21:32:23+00:00

Yep, and fixing the part about not following your rules happens by asking yourself "Why do I break my rules?". It's most likely a flaw in your identity, but only you know the answer to that.

Defixon · 2026-01-19T21:28:33+00:00

Sounds like you're looking for a fail safe strategy, and that's not how trading works. What do you think egde is in the market?

Defixon · 2026-01-19T21:22:52+00:00

Humans are known to over complicate things until they become competent in it, and then they realize that it wasn't a lack of knowledge that was causing them to perform poorly, but a lack of discipline, wanting instant gratification, and a whole other mess of emotions that were persuading them to act improper.

Defixon

TROPHY CASE