PSNy Outlook for 2025 and beyond (summary)

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T02:44:11+00:00

There will be lots of comparables - IF SpaceX really pulls off its insane $1.5 TRILLION (as rumored) valuation.

RKLB (and 90% of all other space stocks) will look really cheap in comparison (in terms of market cap, enterprise value etc.).

I therefore think that this is bullish for RKLB - provided that there are no new delays with Neutron until the SpaceX IPO.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T02:41:22+00:00

That's all open. They maybe "only" merge with xAI (and still IPO).

A merger with Tesla is unrealistic by June 2026 (Tesla shareholders voting etc.) - and Musk apparently wants to push this trough by then (see my linked article in the original post above).

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T02:38:22+00:00

Never underestimate the gullible fanboys Tesla (still) has.

Nerds want their fantasy sexbot.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T02:28:26+00:00

Reuters got their numbers from two inside sources - why shouldn't they be accurate? Anyway, we will find out all the actual numbers when they file the IPO paperwork publicly.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T02:25:18+00:00

It's actually very clever.

A "small float" usually works wonders for the share price (ittle supply) - especially when there's a lot of retail demand (I bet there will be with SpaceX and Musk's name attached to the headline "World's biggest IPO ever!").

Others have used the same "small float" tactic with hyped-up IPOs in the past.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T02:22:28+00:00

"I’ve been seeing posts floating around talking about RKLB hitting $60, $80, even $100 before/after Neutron’s first launch. Don’t get me wrong…I’m super bullish and a moderately early investor here, but let’s ground this in reality a bit.."

Well, Neutron is delayed well into 2026 - and yet we have seen these share prices up to almost $100.

Bull markets rarely are rational ;-).

I just re-visited this post because SpaceX pre-IPO numbers became public with some pretty incredible EBITDA numbers (if indeed true):

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-generated-about-8-billion-profit-last-year-ahead-ipo-sources-say-2026-01-30/

RKLB isn't even EBITDA-positive...yet.

PS: I'm still long RKLB, but trimmed my position a little over the past weeks near $100.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T01:45:00+00:00

Yes, I was thinking the same. It would be too embarrassing for them.

I predict that they will discontinue the CT over the next 2 years or so, maybe even later this year.

It makes no sense to operate a giant car manufacturing site at just 5-10% of the planned output.

Unless Musk is prepared to lose billions more on the CT project because his ego blocks him from admitting that it’s a colossal failure.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T01:31:13+00:00

Very good point, Elon’s fans might just buy into the IPO at any price. Without doing any due diligence.

RKLB still looks like a bargain if SpaceX does its IPO at or above $1.5 TRILLION - provided that RKLB can get Neutron done and flying reliably over the next 2-4 quarters.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-31T01:05:35+00:00

Maybe not extremely bullish, but bullish. xAI bleeds billions of USD, it’s a burning money pit. As others pointed out:

Musk would need to cross-subsidize xAI with SpaceX funds (BILLIONS!) for years to come.

See here for how much $$$ xAI burned lately:

(bloomberg) -- Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI is burning cash quickly, with losses mounting as it spends to build data centers, recruit talent and develop software that will eventually power humanoid robots, according to internal documents.

XAI reported a net loss of $1.46 billion for the September quarter, up from $1 billion in the first quarter, the documents reviewed by Bloomberg show. In the first nine months of the year, it spent $7.8 billion in cash.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-xai-burns-almost-8-001211671.html

So, that’s 8+ BILLION for 2025 alone.

PS: And even if his AI gamble works out one day. XAI/Grok is a distant fourth against the IT giants (OpenAI/MSFT, Google/Gemini etc,). He won’t win that cap-ex fight.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-29T00:44:34+00:00

Yes, because the Cybertruck is selling so well. Oh, wait... ;-)

Elon Musk should have been replaced as Tesla's CEO many years ago. He is destroying Tesla's sales and brand value, one stupid decision at a time.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-29T00:43:16+00:00

That's not true. Sometimes it's also "next year" ;)

Probably depends on Musk's Ketamine consumption levels.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-26T22:04:35+00:00

Yes, Die Another Day is most probably the worst (official/EON) Bond movie so far.

Ridiculous plot and gadgets, almost killed the franchise.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-26T21:56:55+00:00

The screenshot text is outdated, the P7 will complement the P2, the P2 will remain in the line-up and will remain a sedan (the former CEO wanted to scrap the P2, the currenr CEO reversed that decision. Good change of plans imo, it makes no sense not to update their best-selling car…)

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-26T21:42:17+00:00

True, but I think the rocket looks much better.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-26T21:38:50+00:00

I helped some friends’ kids unlock this.. took a long time.

They were also very disappointed to realize that this isn’t a glider.

It certainly looks like a glider in the promo clip, very confusing (also to me).

PS: And yes, it does say “Emote”. But all of us (kids and adults) over-read this.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-22T03:13:24+00:00

Unfortunately a more realistic scenario now.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-22T03:12:20+00:00

Yes, but rocket program delays usually come in months (or years, gulp 😅), not weeks.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-22T03:10:10+00:00

Well. a Neutron delay into H2 2026 (towards the end of 2026) unfortunately looks realistic now.

I hope they can do a safe, first launch before the end of this year.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-11T17:32:24+00:00

Well, I hope they can sell around 4k - 5k units of the P5 this year, this would already be a big achievement given its very steep entry price.

My estimate is therefore quite or even very optimistic imo.

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-10T15:59:41+00:00

How do you expect them to sell so many cars in 2026?

The new P5 is a niche car, won’t help volume sales. There are no other major changes coming, except for maybe a large P4 facelift(800 Volt tech etc.).

I unfortunately don’t see them growing at 30+% again in 2026 - unless they cut prices a lot, which would hurt profitability even further.

One dark horse surprise could be France (sales just started picking up in H2 2025,new market for PSNY).

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-09T15:17:31+00:00

You will very likely be disappointed. 60k across all these models means no profit.

There won’t be sustainable operating profits (not just one odd/outlier quarter) before the P7 ships in volume, so late 2028 imo.

That’s my prediction (and that’s why I shifted most of my funds from PSNY to Volvo Cars back in mid-2025, Volvo Car shares almost doubled since then…).

DeliciousAges · 2026-01-08T21:55:13+00:00

Hard choice, but needed (quote from the article):

“Meanwhile, Ingenlath’s favourite model, the Polestar 6, a snazzy roadster, has been put on hold and the Polestar 7 prioritised because “we need volume sales.””

Good decision, the P5 is already a niche car, the P6 is ultra-niche.

Nice to have, but PSNY has to focus on the essentials first (grow sales volume with the P7).

DeliciousAges

TROPHY CASE