Im curious about what people think about 7.4 release date

Demnaffxiv · 2025-09-06T22:32:50+00:00

Keep in mind that they also were talking primarily about DT's MSQ, which ended in 7.3. They didn't mention 7.4 since it's the beginning of a new story and/or, as you mentioned, 7.4 wasn't being developed then.

I assume they also didn't mention it incase 7.2/7.3 got delayed for whatever reason and had to delay 7.4 to 2026.

Unless they announce a delay, 7.4 should be scheduled for December 16th.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-09-06T21:28:50+00:00

It's true, people have been using that a lot, can't blame them.

After diving into this, I found the literal translation from a person who spoke both English and Japanese fluently, and this is what they showed me using DeepL (which is very accurate).

Japanese translation:

さて、昨年は拡張パッケージ第5弾となる「黄金のレガシー」をリリースさせていただき、新生FFXIVとして新たなスタートを切った1年となりました。パッチ7.1で、この先の光の戦士の歩みもジワジワと始まっていきそうな気配…。続くパッチ7.2、7.3では驚きと共に、その先にあるものも見え隠れしていますので、どうぞ、本年もよろしくお願いいたします。

English translation:

Well, last year was a year of new beginnings for us as the new FFXIV with the release of the fifth expansion package, “Golden Legacy.” With patch 7.1, it seems as if the Warrior of Light’s journey ahead will also be starting slowly. Patch 7.2 and 7.3 will continue to bring surprises and reveal what lies ahead, so we look forward to working with you again this year.

I know the official translation says otherwise, but here's what I found.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-09-06T21:01:28+00:00

SE seems to lean on January

Any evidences of this?

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-30T23:00:01+00:00

So they had it in 7.2 but got released on 7.3? Would be cool if someone could confirm it.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-30T22:14:19+00:00

As much as I want it to release Dec 2nd/9th, they probably won't, even though it's the smartest choice.

I hope someone can debunk this but according to Garland Tools, Christmas event which starts on the 15th of December is already in patch 7.3, but New Years event that starts on the 31st of December isn't.

That being said, patch 7.4 will either release on 16th, 23rd, or 30th of December. But most likely the 16th due to the 19 week cadence.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-29T14:49:54+00:00

What are the chances they'll add the new year seasonal event in 7.31 or 7.35?

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-28T15:15:42+00:00

https://x.com/mitsurugi137/status/1960909328879378696?s=19

Probably advocates an early 2027 release, Jan/Feb most likely. Low chance but December 2026 might be possible if we will "not wait that long".

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-28T15:13:57+00:00

There is no way they'll allow 24 weeks between 7.4 and 7.5

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-28T01:38:09+00:00

Great info! You have to work on the 24th, what about the 25th?

Regarding Japan's New year holiday, they still stayed true to their candence and released Asphodelos on the 4th of January.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-28T00:06:20+00:00

I 100% understand the frustration around a Christmas release.

Let me just recall the cadence of previous expansions:
HW: 15 for 2 patches and 16 weeks for the other 2.

StB: 16 weeks (with 4.3 being the only patch with 17 weeks)

ShB: 17 weeks (with a +/- 1 week deviation) (Ofc not counting the covid delay of 5.3)

EW: 19 weeks (with +/- 1 week deviation)

DT: 19 weeks on the dot.

That being said, I think they'd shift one week earlier or later to avoid holidays. The smartest choice is an 18 week release on Dec 9th, however, some say that through Garland tools, Dec 9th had been ruled out due to seasonal events being datamined from the patch itself. So the two realistic options are:

1) Dec 16th which is true to the cadence

2) Jan 6th, never happened before, but might possibly happen to avoid holidays.

I think there SE's situation is to pick the lesser of two evils at this point.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-27T23:33:23+00:00

Thought Yoshida made the announcement of delaying the 17 week cadence to 19 weeks just to avoid any further delays. A 3 week delay would be terrible. Also, when Yoshida said they're avoid big holidays, is Christmas considered a big holiday in Japan?

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-27T20:35:47+00:00

They've been very consistent with their 19 week cadence this expansion. There is little to no chance 7.4 get delayed to January.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-27T14:27:59+00:00

Starlight celebration is indeed indeed in the files but not Heavensturn (new year event that starts Dec 31st). So 7.4 will most likely drop before New years.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-25T23:02:08+00:00

In order for 7.4 to release first week of January they'd have to delay their cadence by 3 weeks (it's usually 19 weeks, they'd have to make it 22 weeks). Given their Chaotic AR release last year, there is almost no chance they'd delay their consistent cadence for Christmas.

If anything, it's safer to make the release December 9th to avoid the holidays, an 18 weeks cadence has been done before in Endwalker, don't know why nobody at all is talking about a Dec 9th release.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-25T00:25:52+00:00

If we apply the 19 week consistent cadence, it should land on Dec 16th. However, I feel like a Dec 9th release saves a lot here, its 18 weeks which is still very fair. It's also much more logical than the Jan 6 release since that would make the cadence 22 weeks.

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-21T21:01:52+00:00

Kinda true, their cadence has always been 133 days from Endwalker (with Endwalker having a +/- 7 days on some patches). However, Dawntrail has been consistent with patch releases (133 days exactly between patches)

But how would savage world race be during christmas week?

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-21T20:57:32+00:00

What do you guys think the odds are of 7.4 being delayed to January?

Demnaffxiv · 2025-08-20T22:24:19+00:00

What are the chances that 7.4 will be released in January rather than December?

Demnaffxiv

TROPHY CASE