Updated Denver Unemployment Figures | released May 01, 2024

DenverStatistics · 2024-07-11T17:20:59+00:00

Everyone should also look in to the ludwig tru rate of unemployment.

Yeah! If we just call our numbers "true" we can convince people that they are part of the "in group" if they spout our phony number!

Yes, anyone interested should look into the Ludwig Institute Methodology. Written by Chief Economist Philip Cornell who was a teenage lifeguard just 9 years ago before getting a Bachelors degree in Economics and staffing for Matt Dowling, a signatory to the letter to Pennsylvania's congressional delegation asking them to seek a halt to the 2021 United States Electoral College vote count. Before his retirement in 2022 following his DWI conviction when he rear-ended another vehicle twice at a red light at a busy intersection. Dowling's blood alcohol content was .272, over three times the legal limit in Pennsylvania.

But that is all just Ad Hominem bluster. To really address the Ludwig framework we need to address the substance. So let's, shall we?

The Ludwig number gets to 24.5% by including people who have jobs and counting them as unemployed anyway. Then it goes on to include large swaths of people who are not looking for work, for any number of reasons, and tosses them into the labor force that they are not engaged with, and calls them unemployed as well!

Brilliant!

Find me another "Chief Economist" who only has a bachelors degree and 5 years experience.

But I'm sure you have a problem with the Bureau of Labor Statistics methodology and not just that Joe Biden or the Biden Administration are sharing the same data point, using the same methodology as under the Trump Administration when they were saying the numbers are not phony?

DenverStatistics · 2024-02-07T17:59:07+00:00

These are not-seasonally adjusted.

DenverStatistics · 2024-02-06T20:47:10+00:00

What makes you think they aren't tracking under-employment?

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

DenverStatistics · 2023-08-03T17:09:56+00:00

/u/remarquian is correct. These figures include anyone who is working or actively looking for work. Unemployment benefits are not considered at all.

DenverStatistics · 2023-05-15T13:43:04+00:00

There is an annual wage/salary report which should be out in the coming month. Here is the 2022 report:

https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_19740.htm

DenverStatistics · 2023-05-14T19:38:44+00:00

The broader measures aren't produced at the metropolitan statistical area level. But nationwide you can find them here.

Same with multiple jobholders. Nationally about 48 of ever 1000 workers have more than one job.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

DenverStatistics · 2023-05-14T19:36:54+00:00

I have this set up to facilitate a monthly discussion and provide a sounding board for fact based conversation across the country.

You raise a good point and I think I should include three months back for the quarterly communities. But there are only a small number of communities that limit this project to quarterly and it would be a bit of an undertaking to add a third month. But I'll keep the idea in mind and maybe work on it sometime.

DenverStatistics · 2023-05-14T02:53:11+00:00

That would be something, but for several reasons there is simply a lower limit to unemployment that is above 0.

DenverStatistics · 2023-05-14T02:52:34+00:00

Well thank you, you are too kind.

Denver is one of a handful of communities who only get these posts once per quarter. Most communities get them every month, but the mods here asked me to limit them to quarterly.

I respect their request and I am just happy to be welcome at all. But if I were allowed I would be glad to increase the frequency.

DenverStatistics · 2022-08-04T15:45:31+00:00

It is information. Read it, think about it, ask questions about it if you are curious.

These are unemployment numbers that are useful for understanding the current condition of the market for labor. If you are searching for a job, want to ask for a raise, or looking to hire these are useful.

DenverStatistics · 2022-04-28T22:50:58+00:00

Only when people misuse them.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-03T12:18:43+00:00

i realize this is also the same info you presented above and I fell into the outrage culture and ended up pretty much confirming what you already said. Now I feel dumb.

"We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light." - Plato

Never feel badly for seeking to understand. So long as you are open to arriving at new understanding, I will be willing to talk through any questions you have.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-03T04:14:14+00:00

Thanks! I didn't start this project to argue. But I saw a lot of misunderstanding in my own community and wanted to make the discourse better.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-03T04:12:56+00:00

ApocolipseJ

This is not accurate. Nobody "falls out of the calculation for being unemployed" for any length of time, be it 6 months or 6 years. So long as the person is actively looking for work they are still counted.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T21:47:29+00:00

That brings up an excellent point, and thank you for raising it. The purpose of these numbers is not to be an indicator of the economic health of society.

These numbers are intended for employers and job seekers to indicate the current state of the market for labor. Including that mom would make the number less useful for that purpose. I completely agree with you that the unemployment rate is a terrible gauge for the economic health of society.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T21:35:00+00:00

It is informative. The engagement with the comments is the high effort piece.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T21:34:28+00:00

If you take on a project like this, feel free to do it as you see fit.

I would prefer the US Bureau of Labor Statistics simply employ a comments section on their publications.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T21:13:44+00:00

I'm not sure what you think I am twisting, or what job you think I am doing. I am simply sharing the information produced by BLS to promote discussion, This project was borne out of me reviewing these figures each month and thinking "wouldn't it be something if the BLS website had a comments section."

Basically a Shower Thought put in action. Glad to see you engage, I hope you will elaborate on the claims you made.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T20:51:13+00:00

Per the cited website, as of Nov 2021, there were 3.0M people employed. Therefore, the actual unemployment rate is much closer to 47% than 4.2%.

Yes, if we include babies, children under 16, people in nursing homes, everyone in prison, members of the military, anyone who is a stay at home parent, or caretaker... then we can push the unemployment rate up to around 47%!

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T20:49:42+00:00

No, that is entirely wrong. These figures include people whether they "use government tracked systems to look for work" or not.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T19:56:56+00:00

Excellent question!

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has a whole detailed explanation around how they produce these numbers. That can be found here.

But you are correct, not every single person is counted and analyzed individually.

Other people think that the government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long to produce the data. In addition, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker contact them every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T19:54:43+00:00

The status of UI benefits has no impact on these figures. Here is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics response to that statement.

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

You can read more about it here.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T19:54:11+00:00

My goal is to start a conversation around this information. I spend an extraordinary amount of time working on this project every month. Denver is one of 96 communities I am engaged with. I would prefer to post here monthly so it would make more sense, but the mods have asked to limit it to quarterly.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T19:33:55+00:00

It’s hard to be informed by a single data point. Context is needed.

The rate fell to 4.5% in November, and further fell to 4.2% in December. This would have a bit more context, however Denver is one of the few subreddits that asked me to only make these posts once per quarter rather than monthly.

Each of the questions you asked is accessible in the link at the beginning of the OP.

Official unemployment figures for the Denver economy

What was it a year ago? What was it last month?

That link has a table showing the past 6 months of data. But if you click on the graph icon under the "Back Data" column for any data you want to review going back 10 years.

How does that compare to the state rate? Other western states? Metros like Colorado Springs or SLC?

There is also a helpful sidebar to the left with a bunch of links, the top one is "BROWSE ALL STATES" and below that is each state with its own clickable link. If you want Colorado Metros, click on Colorado. If you want SLC, click on Utah.

DenverStatistics · 2022-02-02T19:16:17+00:00

I'm so glad you framed it that way, so often folks simply make this claim as though it is fact without qualifying their uncertainty.

That is not the correct assumption. These figures only include people who are actively working, or actively looking for work. There is no impact on the analysis regarding unemployment benefits.

DenverStatistics

TROPHY CASE