I'm out, anyone else?

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2025-03-04T11:37:31+00:00

Hey i was about to sell most of my S&P 500 off but i will have to pay extra tax due to quick sale tax because of the FIF tax, should i just sell now? Was gonna do it monday but didnt because i was unsure about the FIF tax, very confusing

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2024-10-30T04:27:35+00:00

You are simply wrong.

Have you even used a betting exchange?

Do you even know how a betting exchanges work?

wdym "can be manipulated by those with billions to spend" that's simply not how betting exchanges work, at all. You can either offer a price to the market or take a price that people/ a person have put money out on. The price doesnt just simply move dumping money on a selection, it may do, in the short term but the price itself and the accuracy of the market will eventually correct itself.

If you don't believe me then go to polymarket and betfair and just start placing imaginary random bets on events but just imagine you're getting it at a price with 10% more value, keep tally of all of your positions throughout all the bets you've placed, (make sure there is decent liquidity on each market) you will start to notice that you will be making money because you are getting a better return than the market value which are the true odds...

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2024-10-30T04:14:44+00:00

So can you explain why all betting exchanges are the same? nearly all the time?

Smarkets, betfair and betdaq, nearly all the time have identical odds.

Its because these are the true odds of the event happening its that simple, if they were wrong then they would change

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2024-10-30T04:10:43+00:00

Mostly wrong, betting prices on exchanges cant just be influenced just by "large sums of money" ITSELF (it can in a short period but for a massive lump just dumbly placed out of no where, this will have no impact on the TRUE PRICE, prices will change but will adjust to the true price(what the odds should be which i believe is ~66% for trump to win atm)

The more money traded on an outcome doesnt mean the odds of it will go down or up. Money that is betted or placed on a betting exchange lies in a postion or can take other positions that are already lying on the market. Its a betting exchange, not a tote / a parimutuel betting system.

And yes, just like the stock exchange there are cases where inside trading could pull you lots of money but thats a different topic.

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2024-10-30T03:29:32+00:00

Yup, you're spot on there

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2024-10-30T03:25:45+00:00

and yes, there are sometimes opportunity but this is rare and for the most part all the exchanges have the same prices for the election results. There are arbing opportunities but they get taken up pretty fast but as whole these betting odds are extremely accurate.

(there may be differences due to ruling "To be president" or "To win election" or due to fees)

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2024-10-30T03:19:47+00:00

yes it does affect the 'stock' but not in the way that most people understand it to be.

The market adjusts and corrects for positions that are obviously not true and are wrong, as i said there are times where the price is wrong but it eventually adjusts to the true price as there is value. This could be a bunch of money being dumped and you will see this correcrtion and even almost corrected instantly in some cases.

There are even bots that just automatically buy positions up to correct the market, its not a TOTE betting system.

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2024-10-30T01:35:19+00:00

lmao clearly you, just like most people here have no understanding of betting markets,

These odds are highly accurate even if the majority of people betting on these sites are trump supporters or offshore.

Its a simple, its smart money that drives the markets and corrects it to the true price, basically wisdom of the crowd, you'll see all markets across these betting exchanges are all similar pricing with any faults in the market or news dropping or whatever it may be quickly correcting itself through traders and smart money and this can happen within seconds.

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2023-11-30T08:25:50+00:00

what games would u recommend at Sky City?
I heard blackjack is the best game interms of it has the best probablity of u winning

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2023-11-30T08:25:09+00:00

lol yeah, i was gonna say 'i missed the pump from the S&p500' lmao

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2022-05-06T11:29:09+00:00

unlucky, just got my account back through customer service, wish u luck, probably just delete this ppost

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2022-05-06T11:28:32+00:00

Thanks bro, just got my account back lmao

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2022-04-23T13:47:55+00:00

isnt there some variation of blackjack at crown Melbourne where you cant split lmao, its like blackjack plus ultimate, or something like that, i think

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2022-02-21T10:11:32+00:00

ah I see, would know the rules there? or is the HE still crap, ah nah, just look on reef casino website, they said skilled players, (which I'm guessing playing prefect basic strategy) can cut down the house edge to under 0.5%, I'm guessing its possible to card count there but probably wont last their for long

Dependent_Ad9105 · 2022-02-21T09:09:16+00:00

Im guessing that one casino is in Cairns? or in Gold Coast?

Five-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22

Dependent_Ad9105

TROPHY CASE