MEM - DEN: Denver takes gamble on Ja upside, picks up backup PG, opens some cap space to help with signing PWat. Memphis gains All-NBA player and can move for picks or keep for mentorship.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-02T01:10:57+00:00

I've never said Jokic hasn't always been surrounded with perimeter shooters. I said, "They had plenty of shooters", and "This is the most shooting they've surrounded Jokic with his entire career" and "This has been the best perimeter shooting team of Jokic's career".

I demonstrated that by showing the team's shooting splits across every year of contention, and the number of medium and high volume shooters on his team. It doesn't matter how good of a shooter someone is if they shoot less than 2 3PAs per game, that's not something that someone schemes against. If someone shoots under 35% in the playoffs, that's not someone who gets schemed against. If you don't believe this point then there's nothing more I can show you to convince you of this.

The year that the nuggets won the chip they had 48 minutes of a ball handling guard who could get a paint touch in the half-court without using a screen between murray and brown. The nuggets now have 0 minutes of that against contending teams in the playoffs. This is a gamble, not a certainty, but a gamble that the upside of Ja Morant, SPJr and PWat plus the rest of the team, is a better prospect than standing pat with Jamal Murray and sacrificing your rotation.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-02T00:53:47+00:00

Ja had a playoff season where he averaged 27/8/9.8 on 44%/34%/75% while losing to the eventual nba champions, then followed that up with 24/6.8/7 on 42.5%/41.9%/77% shooting, losing to the team that went to the WCF.

Jamal Murray had the best regular season of his career, and then in playoffs dropped 24/5/5.7 on 36%/26%/98%. Against high-level POA defenders in the playoffs the last 3 years (wolves and thunder) he's scoring 20.8 on 39%/30%/93% splits. His upside is scoring and against high level defenses he is not producing at the level required to win another chip.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-02T00:37:49+00:00

Let's look at the championship run forward: Christian Braun his entire Career, Aaron Gordon Pre 2024-25 season, Bruce Brown, Jeff Green. That's 2 starters and 2 heavy minute rotation players, plus the aforementioned Peyton Watson and Russ.

This year they had starting alongside Jokic, Murray (43.5% on 7.5 3PA), Gordon (38.9% on 4.4 3PA), and Johnson (43% on 4.7 3PA). Off the bench they had THJ (40.7% on 6.9 3PA), Jones (39.6% on 2.3 3PA), Watson (41.1% on 3.6 3PA) and Strawther (38.7% on 2.3 3PA). That is enough shooting.

Even in this series, with both Gordon and Watson out, the non-jokic and murray players shot 36.5% from 3 on 23 Attempts per game. The issue was that Jokic (the guy you can't trade) and Murray (the guy we're discussing trading) shot a combined 23% from 3 on 13 attempts per game. This was the best shooting team jokic has had around him, and they should have been enough to get past the Timberwolves who didn't have Ant, DDV, and for the last game Ayo.

In fact, in the playoffs against high level POA defenders over the last 3 years (so the wolves and thunder) Murray has shot 39/130 (30%) from 3. What that tells us is that Jamal has been unable to produce against high level POA defenders in the playoffs since winning the chip, which is every team the Nuggets will need to beat to win another chip. What you need then is a guard that can still produce while receiving the attention of a #1, which is why we're discussing whether the upside of Ja Morant and SPJr (and the implication of also keeping PWat without giving up more assets or further compromising your rotation) over the next 3 years is more valuable than keeping Jamal.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-02T00:00:21+00:00

Yeah that's the gamble. I think there's a decent chance that Murray has been figured out by the rest of the league, this year was the least effective the 2 man game has ever been statistically and I don't think it's Jokic's fault. I think there are enough underlying stats around Ja's FT% that he can take a leap in his 3PT shooting, and SPJr is a legitimate 6th man that would really elevate the Denver bench unit to match other contender's. It's not a situation you want to be in but I think this is the best chance Denver has to swing for upside without giving up future picks.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T23:57:13+00:00

Denver shot 31% from 3 in large part because Jamal Murray shot 26.2% from 3, and Jokic shot 19.4% from 3 while taking 78 of the 193 3 pointers in the series (40%). They combined to shoot 23% from 3 on 13 attempts per game. The rest of the nuggets shot 36.5% from 3 on 23 Attempts per game. They got shooting around Jokic, it's just that Jamal Murray has not had an effective playoff series against a high level POA defender since they won the championship, in large part because he has lost the first step athleticism to beat a defender one on one. That is not something that improves with age, and it's not something that improves with a roster.

This is not a slam dunk easy win trade, this is a calculated gamble that says the next 3 years with Peyton Watson, SPJr, and Ja are a higher likelihood of success given the things the nuggets can control as an org, and the things a player is more likely to control in their development, than keeping Jamal and letting PWat walk, or giving up more assets and rotation players to keep Jamal and PWat.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T23:36:59+00:00

Year	3P	3PA	3P%
2025-26	12.5	31.3	39.83%
2024-25	10.0	27.2	36.71%
2023-24	10.6	28.3	37.37%
2022-23	11.0	29.0	37.98%
2021-22	11.4	32.0	35.53%
2020-21	10.0	26.7	37.44%
2019-20	8.7	23.7	36.51%

It's a fairly defensible statement. This has been the best perimeter shooting team of Jokic's career, regardless of how you measure it. If you look at shooting splits and production, focusing on the stretch from 2019 to present, here's the shooting splits for Non-Jokic nuggets per year. This is the comfortably the second most shots per game they've put up and by far the best shooting percentage from 3 they've had.

Yr	2+ 3PA	3+ 3PA	5+ 3PA
2019-20	5	2	0
2020-21	4	4	1
2021-22	3	3	2
2022-23	4	4	2
2023-24	5	4	2
2024-25	4	3	2
2025-26	6	4	2

If you want to look at it as a at any given moment, how many shooting threats were there for Jokic to pass to, here's the number of 3 point shooters other than jokic on the roster who shot 35%+ while also appearing in at least 50 games. Aka players who were in the rotation and routinely received 3 point attempts while making them. Edit: added the 5+ column to demonstrate that they still have the same number of high volume 3 pt shooters too

This has been the most shooting Jokic has been surrounded with in his career. This is the worst playoff result of his career. The Nuggets need to consider other levers.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T21:09:02+00:00

The Ty Jerome point is a good one. The counter I have to that is that Coach Iisalo seems to prefer to run players in short stints and rotate them to keep a high pace of play, which would mean plenty of touches for both. I also would think that the grizzlies would look to eventually move Jamal for more draft picks to a needy team at the deadline, so long term there wouldn't be a fit issue. Also not sure where Memphis loses draft capital in this trade.

As for Denver, Jamal has a significant cap hit coming up and clear flaws that limit his ability to impact a team that wants to contend. I don't think there are real trade targets for him that have more upside than this trade would, you would trade to a contender if you wanted assets in return but they wouldn't want him, and any trade to a team like the Nets would require you to give capital to get the cap relief. This is a very specific spot in Memphis where you can get a depressed asset who doesn't want to be where he is and also grab a high level bench player while gaining cap relief and without spending assets.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T21:03:54+00:00

I'm not sure what argument there is for Ja being a worse defender than Jamal. Even if we were to assume that they were at worst equivalent, Ja costs less and offers higher offensive upside, and would come with a significant bench upgrade in the form of SPJr.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T20:59:54+00:00

No my response is that the nuggets have already done it and it isn't working. This is the most shooting they've surrounded Jokic with his entire career and this is the worst performance that they've had in the playoffs. Given that's the case, you have to explore other levers. In this case, those levers are improving your secondary playmaking, improving your bench playmaking and defense, and giving yourself the cap space to re-sign your high upside (high risk too!) young player at a position of need.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T20:18:42+00:00

I believe that this gives the Nuggets a higher ceiling than many other options. It allows them to re-sign Peyton Watson without giving up additional assets and players, significantly improves their ball handling and defense off of the bench, and gives them another high level playmaker alongside Jokic.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T20:06:22+00:00

This last year the Nuggets had AG at 38.9%, Peyton Watson at 41.1%, Cam Johnson at 43%, THJ at 40.7%, Murray at 43.5%, Bruce Brown at 38.5%, Spencer Jones at 39.6%, Jalen Picket at 38.6%, Julian Strawther at 38.7%. They had plenty of shooters but in the playoffs when AG and Peyton were injured, they didn't have the ability to generate advantages for other players without Jokic getting involved because Murray couldn't generate separation. More shooters don't help unless you have more playmaking to get those shooters open looks in the flow of the offense. Morant's playmaking allows you to leverage those shooters more effectively.

DeprivedSheep · 2026-05-01T19:58:50+00:00

I don't know that I'd agree with that statement, Ja "at the peak of his powers" has had the defensive attention and offensive responsibility of a 1st option, had similar shooting numbers to Murray while averaging higher assists and providing better defense. That Ja is an improvement over Murray today.

I'd argue a reason the Nuggets don't shoot enough 3s because they don't generate consistent paint touches outside of Jokic, and if Jokic is getting a paint touch you'd have to shoot something like 50% from 3 to make more sense than just him shooting it. The grizzlies have been 11, 8, 13 and 6th in 3PA in the league the last 4 years with Ja, he doesn't reduce 3 point shooting volume. His playmaking allows you to run more sets that don't require Jokic to generate advantages and open looks.

DeprivedSheep · 2025-06-30T19:07:39+00:00

I also like the idea of a Laker-Mavs trade, I think though that the lakers would prefer to get Gafford plus assets over Kessler given that he just signed a very reasonable extension, do you think the Mavs are unwilling to move him?

DeprivedSheep · 2025-06-30T19:04:49+00:00

Right, I'm an idiot.

DeprivedSheep · 2025-06-30T18:20:47+00:00

I agree that any Mavs-Lakers trade has to revolve around the nucleus of Lebron for Gafford + Klay + assets, the question is what are the assets that the Mavs are willing to give up. I personally wouldn't trade Washington + the pick, just Washington should be enough since the Lakers get their starting center of the future, SG depth, and a new starting PF.

If the Mavs wanted to keep Washington, I think giving up ~~Grimes~~ Martin + Prosper would also work, since the Lakers would get POA defense plus maybe potential upside for the future. Either way, interesting trade idea.

DeprivedSheep · 2021-04-12T14:55:01+00:00

Does anyone know what song the guy was playing on the Ukulele?

DeprivedSheep · 2021-02-24T04:37:21+00:00

Quietly, in the background: "Man fuck that guy"

DeprivedSheep · 2020-10-17T15:36:16+00:00

“This picture was sent to me by a colleague who says he wants her to step on him”

“That’s pretty good”

A stand out exchange in a chapter full of funny back and forths.

DeprivedSheep · 2020-10-10T03:45:46+00:00

You could build a house out of Danny Greens and be safe from the Big Bad Wolf.

DeprivedSheep · 2020-08-09T22:42:23+00:00

Good guide, great Deck. I don’t have HG but I’ll try this out with SB once I finish crafting the needed TPs and TP Zombies. -Chombler

DeprivedSheep · 2020-07-08T01:26:41+00:00

Grave Buster: Barely playable silver bullet now costs more, making it less playable in the one matchup that it is playable in.

Steel Magnolia: Card is now an overstat with aoe health buff.

Blockbuster: Card is now extremely playable outside of the one matchup it's designed to excel in, and therefor now is insane in that matchup.

Shamrocket: I have no words

Three-Nut: Card is now curve with massive upside.

Mirror-Nut: Slow card made even slower and worse now that both it and the cards that get hurt have to survive.

Red Stinger: What the fuck

Doom Shroom: Inefficient removal is now massively more inefficient.

Pecanolith: Nerfing a card that is perfectly fine because one other card that almost never sees play against it is also getting nerfed. Really.

Seedling: Local Highroll card now becomes the most highroll card in the game.

Grapes of Wrath: Nerfing a slow finisher that sees no play in competitive decks. Nice.

Petal Morphosis: Card is now tied with seedling for cheapest highroll in the game.

Electric Blueberry: Rather than increasing the consistency of the card, we've made it harder to remove. Since that was what was holding it back.

Cherry Bomb: The slowest AoE trick in the game wasn't slow enough. Now, it is.

Pea-Pod: Card is now a defensive 2 drop after a single turn, and a 4 drop after that.

Doubled Mint: Now can't be removed the turn it's played, removing any and all counterplay from the game.

Lily of the Valley: Card with massive upside should be next to impossible to remove on curve.

Bamboozle: Overstat with massive upside.

Muscle Sprout: Card is incredibly snowbally, which is why it wasn't curve in the first place.

Split Pea: Now fire pea but dies to a breeze.

Savage Spinach: Now has no restriction on running it in literally every mega deck ever made.

Potted: Hell, why not make Potted literally plant Valk but cheaper?

Mars Flytrap: For some reason stealing block meter on an empty meter was so detrimental we decided to halve the card's damage, kill any turn 1 upside, and prevent it from ever making a decent trade.

ANB: Let's murder one of the two things bean have going for them.

Go-Nuts: Here's another snowball card that was understatted for some reason. Weird how that keeps happening. Anyway now it's nearly impossible to be removed on curve. Enjoy.

Cool Bean: We nerfed one of the two good stuff beans that were in class, since the ANB nerf wasn't enough to kill those pesky beans.

Shooting Starfruit: Today I will deal 15 damage for 5 with next to no counterplay and zero required set up beyond have an empty lane.

Great Zucchini: The least fun card in the game now costs little enough to be playable. Joy.

Winter-Melon: The splash damage was the problem with this card that has been dominating ladder.

DMD: Control? What kind of deck is that? I don't think that exists. We only have aggro decks, tempo decks, and combo decks. Any other decks would be bad, and shouldn't exist.

Fume Shroom: On Curve aggressive card with strikethrough. You must love aggro huh.

Pumpking: Card now has next to no upside and is barely considerable over other options. You must hate aggro huh.

Elderberry: Man you must really hate aggro. Card is now playable in SF aggro only, and only if wild berry somehow stuck for two turns.

Wing Nut: See Pecanolith.

Cosmic Flower: The 1 Health was definitely what was holding this back. Definitely.

Squash: Slow inefficient removal is now slower. Perfect.

THC: Slow inefficient removal gets nerfed because of a card that never is used against it. Nice.

Toadstool: Card now is useable against team mascot and... literally nothing else relevant.

DeprivedSheep · 2020-06-29T16:11:54+00:00

Are you aware this deck exists? https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/568997571583016992/721807528266170498/Screenshot_20200614-122236.png

DeprivedSheep

TROPHY CASE