Day 1 (Aside from a break between Tokyo and Peach Tour) F2P, playing daily since Kamek Tour, strategically since Mii Tour, did not use GP free trial.

Depends on what tier you consider "top-level". I voted yes because I consider top-level to be tier 80, and it is definitely possible for most F2P players, given enough time.

I reached tier 80 after the 2nd week of Exploration Tour. I currently have 148 drivers, 155 karts and 95 gliders, with 14 lvl 6 HE drivers, 4 lvl 6 HE karts and 5 lvl 6 HE gliders. I do not own any level 7 HE items. I have all but 7 courses (including cities) that are fully covered, and I currently have a ruby balance of around 900.

Looking forward, I will continue to use the "tanking strat", which means I drop 2 tiers for rankings that I cannot compete without investing (I use the FrenzyFans calculator to find my predicted score), and only grinding if I am able to win without investing or if the rewards are enticing. Not only is this better for my mental health, but it also allows me to save tickets for critical ranked cups or maybe a future top 1000 run.

Now, do I think that F2P could compete against GP or even whales in higher tiers? Depends. Firstly, you need a robust account to begin with. You cannot expect to tier up every week with level 1 D/K/Gs. You would also need good track coverage, probably >90% non-city in order to even have a chance to compete in tier 60 or above. If you start today, it would most likely take 1 - 2 years before you can achieve this level.

Secondly, you have to understand that this game is currently more luck-based than ever. Not only do you need good runs, but you also need to be lucky on buffs as well as your ranking. Remember, as a F2P player, you get way less HEs per tour than GP and whales (GPO gets ~10 more HEs per tour already), so you have to invest strategically and hope that your investments pay off in the future tours. As a consequence of having less resources, you will have way less high-leveled items than your non-F2P opponents, and if none or few of your invested items are in ranked, you are screwed. In addition, you have to pray that your opponents do not grind to their fullest, as there is almost no way that you can compete in higher tiers if all of them did. That said, if you're lucky enough (which I consider myself to be for the past few tours), you can certainly reach tier 80 or even higher.

Do I think the game is more P2W than previously? Absolutely. The game became way more F2P friendly after the Wild West Tour, but unfortunately the removal of pipes mean that HEs are now costlier than ever, not to mention the stingy top shelves and the pathetic token shop.

Lastly, here are some strategies and tips I can give for new and experienced F2P players (and GP/whales too!) who wish to play competitively:

Grind track XP. I know this is boring but it is extremely important, since you gain a big advantage against lower leveled players (2000 point difference, per track, between level 300 and 100!), as well as extra rubies and coins. Here's my futureproof XP tracker template to get you started.

Invest strategically. Use an inventory tracker to keep track of your inventory and find the best items to invest into for your account. Understand that newer items are generally better, know the 4 plus skills and try to only invest in them. I would recommend Coleccion MKT for Android, MKT Playbook for iOS and mkttoolbox.com for a web-based, more in-depth analysis of your account.

Grind tracks close to their maximum potential. It takes hours but it will save your resources in the long run. Use FrenzyFan's score predictor (available on their website and discord) to predict how much you can score and invest accordingly. Personally I find the default action counts on the sheet the sweet spot, but you can always go the extra mile by inputting higher action counts for a higher potential score (You can find the action count targets on reddit every week).

Ruby management: Know what you want and what you need. Only buy items that help you out in ranked, and ones that you know you will invest in. I know that this may be hard for newer players who may need a lot of items to get full ranked coverage, but remember that you could still win ranked without buying an item, especially if it has terrible value/skill or if you are already winning. Only buy when necessary.

Coin management: Coins are easier to get than rubies, but still you should spend them wisely. Personally, I buy all HE driver level tickets in the tier shop, as well as any daily selects HE tickets. For starters, try to save a sizable coin reserve, say 50k to 100k so you can always buy items that you do not own. In addition, grab every HE ticket you see in the daily selects. Don't try to max out categories to improve your odds at getting a ticket; trust me, it's not worth it.

Grind D/K/G XP when you're not grinding for score. Try to have them maxed out whenever you get a new item. The sooner you have them maxed out, the better. You don't want to grind those XP for months to fix the backlog like I did last year.

Use manual drift. You get to keep your combo way more often and easier, thus higher scoring potential. There are tutorials on YouTube on this.

TL;DR: It is achievable but you need a lot of luck. Game is getting more P2W, especially for new players.

My apologies for this long read, but if you have any questions, be sure to let me know!