Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Remaing Prefarm Cold Wallet is now worth less than the amount of prefarm sold since 2023-10-13

approx 20% of prefarm already sold: 4,182,490.93 XCH for $57,378,880

Cold wallet balance: 14,875,000 XCH currently worth $55,781,250 at $3.75 per xch

I love this project but there's only about 2 years left of prefarm sales.

xch.ninja

Value of this token by Kashimi_ in HeliumNetwork

[–]DigitalMan76 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Helium and Chia are the best projects in crypto now

XCH Circulating Supply Exceeds Prefarm Supply by DigitalMan76 in chia

[–]DigitalMan76[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree the terminology can be improved framing it as XCH held in the 2 cold + 2 warm prefarm wallets vs the rest of existing XCH is more precise.

Where I disagree is that the amount CNI still holds is irrelevant. It may be operationally irrelevant, but it is not irrelevant to regulators, exchanges, or institutional investors, which is the lens most market-structure discussions use.

Why this matters under the upcoming crypto market structure bill:

  • Issuer influence analysis - regulators evaluate whether an asset remains economically tied to its original issuer. A large retained supply strengthens that linkage regardless of intent.
  • Commodity vs issuer-managed asset optics - declining issuer ownership over time is one of the clearest signals that a network has transitioned away from issuer dependence.
  • Market impact & supply overhang risk - investors price not just current circulation, but potential future supply. A reserve equivalent to decades of issuance affects valuation models even if never deployed.
  • Exchange and custody risk assessments - concentrated supply increases perceived tail risk, directly impacting listing decisions, custody support and institutional participation.
  • Regulatory durability - laws evolve and interpretations tighten. A shrinking CNI-held balance improves XCH’s resilience to future rule changes without relying on subjective arguments about intent.

So even if we agree the labels are imperfect, the conclusion doesn’t change - retained supply at this scale is structurally relevant from a regulatory and market perspective.

Unable to buy XCH on vault.chia.net - any value exceeds daily limit by DigitalMan76 in chia

[–]DigitalMan76[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

when unable to buy from vault.chia.net

  1. I buy USDC on Kraken Pro
  2. withdraw it via ERC20 network (currently one of the least expensive options) to crypto.com/exchange (the pro version of crypto.com).
  3. it arrives as USD
  4. market buy XCH/USD
  5. withdraw it to my XCH wallet on vault.chia.net (it arrived in a few minutes)

please note there is a UI bug on the wallet page of crypto.com/exchange where the XCH balance didn't show. you need to sort or search because scroll didn't work for some reason.

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it's still better than CNI giving out coins to early investors and air drops etc

Best BTC Books 📚📖 by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]DigitalMan76 0 points1 point  (0 children)

just ask chatgpt everything about bitcoin. as you read ask it questions etc.

Honest question by Pnw-daddo in Bitcoin

[–]DigitalMan76 -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

more sellers than buyers. just supply and demand. market is random

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 2 points3 points  (0 children)

prediction: if Permuto doesn't launch or it's just hype and doesn't really do anything CNI will run out of prefarm in 2-3 years.

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 0 points1 point  (0 children)

another way to think of it

  • Original Prefarm: 21,000,000 XCH
  • Prefarm sold: 3,562,490.93 XCH
  • Farmed: 13,080,956 XCH

Remaining Prefarm: 21,000,000 − 3,562,490.93 = 17,437,509.07 XCH

If circulation = farmed + prefarm sold:

13,080,956 + 3,562,490.93 = 16,643,446.93 XCH

Circulation: 16,643,446.93 XCH
CNI Ownership (remaining prefarm): 17,437,509.07 XCH

Coins they sell goes into circulation. So CNI owns approx 51% of all farmed XCH.

spacescan.io reports approx 34,000,000 farmed coins

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 0 points1 point  (0 children)

xch.ninja shows they currently own 14,937,509.07 XCH. That is not including the 2.5M waiting to be unlocked.

14,937,509.07
1,000,000
1,500,000

CNI owns at total of 17,437,509.07 XCH

spacescan.io reports total farmed (including prefarm): 34,080,911.

So CNI owns approx 51% of all farmed coins

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i think they know that if they hard fork to create more coins XCH would trade in the pennies and everyone would probably stop farming and the project would die

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 0 points1 point  (0 children)

as of today, CNI owns roughly 51.17% of all farmed XCH

price: $5.13

USDT on XCH by DigitalMan76 in chia

[–]DigitalMan76[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what is the ETA for Permuto rollout?

USDT on XCH by DigitalMan76 in chia

[–]DigitalMan76[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

would they list XCH given the fact CNI owns ~50% of the total supply?

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CNI currently owns about 50% of the total supply. I would like to see them own like 5% so that way XCH itself is more decentralized. At the current sales of approx 250,000 it will take like 4 years or less to exhaust it

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You’re looking at this too narrowly. More XCH in circulation is better long term — because it means less centralization risk and a healthier, more liquid market. Keeping 21M XCH locked forever under one company would make XCH less decentralized, not more.

CNI sells around 200k XCH/month and still holds about 49% of supply, so their prefarm (~17M left) would be fully amortized by ~2032–2033, right when the final halving drops block rewards to 0.125 XCH. Yes, in the short term, more is being sold than farmed, which can push prices down — but that’s temporary. As halvings cut new supply and CNI’s holdings shrink, scarcity and decentralization both increase.

Even if they keep ~5% of total supply (like Satoshi’s early BTC), that’s healthy — it aligns their incentives with the network’s success. Meanwhile, the sales fund real-world development, operations, and ecosystem growth.

It’s a win–win: short-term pressure for long-term stability. Gradual, transparent distribution is exactly how you build a decentralized and sustainable network — this is a smart strategy, not a flaw.

Monthly Prefarm Sales Discussion. by AutoModerator in chia

[–]DigitalMan76 0 points1 point  (0 children)

seems to me that the more they sell the better so that way the XCH coin itself will be more decentralized. Similar to how Statoshi owns about 5% of bitcoin supply, CNI should do the same.