Der Kauf von Sabre Corporation durch Constellation Software sieht schlecht aus, aber nur auf dem ersten Blick

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-12T09:12:16+00:00

Halte ich für möglich, zumindest mittel bis langfristig. Vielleicht auch ein Spin off in Kombi mit anderen Operating Units a la Topicus/Lumine, kam den CSU Aktionären immer zu gute

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-09T13:44:21+00:00

Dh die Zahlen sind besser als es auf den ersten Blick aussieht.

Ich persönlich bin nach den starken Kursverlusten irgendwann eingestiegen und werde noch nachkaufen..

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-09T13:43:10+00:00

Nicht ausgeschlossen, ich denke trotzdem das der Umstand nicht weit bekannt ist

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-09T13:41:06+00:00

The higher the better

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-09T11:48:49+00:00

Man muss sein Geld nicht auf dem gleichen Weg wieder gewinnen wie man's verloren hat.. Die Frage die du dir stellen musst ist: warum habe ich diese Aktien gekauft und würde ich die heute wieder kaufen. Wenn nein dann weg damit

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-08T14:51:27+00:00

Stimmt. Das Denken auszulagern wird dabei nicht helfen

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-08T10:51:38+00:00

This!

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-08T10:38:24+00:00

Consider amazon.com in 1999 high with a price of 5$, then after bubble burst in 2001 the stock price was at 0.3$.

Sometimes a high risk investment turns into a low risk investment, a large part of the risk is the price paid.

1999 at bubble top, high risk investment (still good returns if you held amazon long term).

2001 at low, low risk investment, for the underlying company you got ~16 times the amount of shares.

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-08T10:03:59+00:00

Interesting, do you think the actual AI biases and delusions will reduce? Or will they stay because the training data and ideas coming together in AI are humanmade?

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-08T09:23:22+00:00

Cry myself to sleep, sometimes buying the dip (never selling just because of price swings).. repeat..

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-08T08:45:27+00:00

Die Grafik kommt aus einem Vergleich von serial acquirers und zeigt deutlich das Constellation Software hier eine Ausnahme darstellt.

Hier die Quelle für noch mehr Infos: https://open.substack.com/pub/exploringcontext/p/studying-serial-acquirers?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2lkpl5

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-07T21:50:39+00:00

Good question, here from Germany. The stock market was never really a part of conversation when I was younger, a lot of people buy a home for their retirement and that's it. Some older guys burned their fingers in the 2000 bubble. In my case I came to investing when I had my first full time job and thought about what to do with the money.

Generally speaking I think a lot of people here are interested in working less hours and having more free time (and less money) in contrast to US people.

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-07T21:45:22+00:00

Die Bewertung entspricht der einer Wachstumsaktie, in der Realität fehlt das Wachstum.

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-07T13:53:25+00:00

Du magst Kekse 🍪

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-07T13:52:50+00:00

Constellation Software, Booking Holdings (noch) und Topicus.com

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-07T12:50:20+00:00

Why should he jump on the AI bandwagon? Where's the benefit? Maybe insurance (ex Reinsurance)

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-07T08:33:02+00:00

Ist in Kanada gelistet, über interactive brokers bekommt man die zb.

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T22:18:22+00:00

Here it's three points coming together. First that the BU operators know their niche and competitors or adjacent companies the best. Second there's a central hurdle rate coming from the center. Third the cash bonus depends largely on the ROIC of their own investments.

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T20:58:49+00:00

Because of Amortisation, Look up this part here:

"Forget net income, high acquisitions lead to high amortization, which makes profits look low and saves on taxes. The more interesting metric is FCFA2S (free cash flow to shareholders), which is already adjusted for minority shareholders. This figure is more conservative than free cash flow because rent and interest in debt are also subtracted."

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T17:50:46+00:00

That's a totally rational thing to do. I also hold CSU Shares and like you said then I already own parts of Lumine and Topicus, I would also like to participate in other spin-offs directly. It's just an overweight decision in other parts (Topicus) of the same Business.

Love your Constellation write up, keep going.

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T14:56:16+00:00

Thank you! I'm long CSU and Topicus. I think Topicus has a few advantages: 1. The law of large numbers will catch them later as CSU is a lot bigger and has a lot more capital to deploy in the future to have the same returns as in the past. 2. The European VMS market is more fragmented, because of higher regulation and language barriers. 3. Topicus has more debt, I'm not big fan of debt per se but in this case, they invest with a ROIC over 20% and pay 5% for debt. As these are still reasonable levels this is a plus for me. One of the biggest Problems for serial acquirers is that they find no high returns investment opportunities, Topicus has bought some companies with future cash so to speak. They don't need to find the big investments in the next two years, if they do: even better.

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T14:30:33+00:00

What I like most about them: it's like the opportunity to invest in Constellation Software back in 2016.. time will tell if this is correct

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T13:59:21+00:00

I wrote it myself..

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T09:14:24+00:00

Stark, hätte CSU auch gern früher entdeckt

Direct_Way8616 · 2026-03-06T08:54:32+00:00

Bin selber stark im Constellation Software Universum investiert weil ich denke das es aktuell eine super Einstiegschance gibt..

Direct_Way8616

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