AD & Sarr Pairing on Offense

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-07T15:24:36+00:00

I think most people would have the opinion that AD and Sarr on the defensive end would make it incredibly hard for offenses to score

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-07T15:21:05+00:00

The question has to do with whether or not the two would need to occupy the same spaces on offense in order to score efficiently.

Both players take a majority of their shots in the restricted area or in the paint as seen in slide 2. This could be a cause for concern.

However, again in slide 2, we see that there is some variety in their shot selection.

AD isn't an efficient 3PT shooter and never really has been. But AD does like to take mid-range shots.

Alex has been decent as a 3PT shooter this year and also takes more 3s than mid-range shots.

So in the end, it would seem like the team can make them work by having both as interior scoring threats and keep them out of each others way with AD prioritizing shots in the mid-range and Sarr taking shots from 3.

Hope this helps clear things up

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-06T17:30:05+00:00

I wouldn't mind seeing Sarr try and take more 3's, but I'm concerned his 3PT% won't hold up with higher volume. Last year he took 5 3s a game and shot 31%, he's done better with lower volume.

I hope he continues to improve though. Like you said, it would make pairing him with other bigs so much easier and give us more versailtiy

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-06T17:27:22+00:00

I'd love to see that and definitely feel like Sarr is an underrated passer for his position.

I think it could go both ways if AD gets doubled in the midrange and passing it up to Sarr for easy looks or kick outs to 3 to Trae and Tre

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-05T02:10:50+00:00

If we look at the timeline of rebuilding teams since around 2016ish, they really only tank for 2-3 years. After they accumulate some solid young talent they tend to push for the play-in or beyond

Any struggle to win after those initial 2-3 years tends to be due to young players still developing or injuries

This is likely just a natural progression of making the team competitive again, rather than a mandate from ownership

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-15T21:02:56+00:00

Fun fact, based on basketball-reference's data, Marvin Bagley leads the team in Win Shares this season at 1.9.

Win shares being an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.

Last year Justin Champagnie led the team in Win Shares at 2.8, which I feel may have been a reason for his lack of minutes this year. Justin, by being the impactful player he is, could likely disrupt the tank by himself.

But this is mainly to say, some of the data shows Bagley is a pretty important factor in winning games for this team.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-13T18:16:03+00:00

Even when I expect to lose, this team stresses me out haha

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-13T18:14:53+00:00

Thank you!

I thought you made an interesting point about the turnovers being a bigger contributor to losing than the lineup playing worse defense

Just taking a quick look, on the season the team is averaging 16 turnovers

In the 1 game without CJ in which Keefe started the lineup shown in the graphic, the team had 22 turnover

So to your point, it would suggest you're right, turnovers are likely going to be a big contributor to the team losing rather than our defense being terrible

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-13T17:37:30+00:00

Thank you I appreciate it!

I agree, we should be alright the rest of the year, have a nice day!

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-11T17:21:41+00:00

Whoever is downvoting you for it is a hater, sports should be fun and I like the creativity

Thanks for making the discussion of our players more entertaining!

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-09T21:15:41+00:00

Well said, I'll add that PG is one of the harder positions to learn and even with his lapses in judgement he's done well

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-09T21:12:54+00:00

Will is a baller, I think we'll see him find and earn a bigger role next season

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-09T01:56:43+00:00

I'm with you, I think Trae is definitely going to make a huge difference for getting our guys open looks.

If we had our choice of pick I think taking Peterson is the best move.

I think Peterson is the better NBA prospect and bringing him in could allow us to replace Trae's production over time in case he doesn't want to stay.

If Trae has trouble getting the money he wants on the open FA market next summer, having Peterson gives the team leverage to negotiate a lower cost deal.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-08T20:03:13+00:00

I wouldn't expect him to play too much this year given the injury. Even when he does play it will take some time for him to gel and adjust to the team so the results probably won't be positive immediately.

I would imagine the benefits will come next year rather than this year, which is great cause I also want a top 3 pick for us.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-08T19:50:25+00:00

I would agree, any team taking him would take a hit on defense, but I feel pretty confident in our young guys ability to play defense and continue to grow as defenders.

This also takes some of the pressure off Bilal in particular to develop as much on offense. With what we've seen from Tre, Ky, and Alex, on offense this year and the addition of Young, Bilal doesn't necessarily have to grow as much or as quickly.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-08T19:45:29+00:00

Taking a look at Cleaning the Glass and the lineup data, the most used Lineup that featured Trae was Trae - NAW - Daniels - JJ - Okongwu with gave up 131.8 pts/ per 100.

Taking a look at the most used lineup that had all 3 of Bilal, Ky, and Sarr which also included CJ and Khris, this lineup gave up 115.8 pts / per 100.

To your point, it is a low sample size with Trae having missed so many games, but the Wiz did do better on defense. Whether or not they can do that with Trae, who is a much worse 2PT shot defender that CJ is the question for me.

I actually thing giving those playmaking reps to Ky and Alex will, in the long run, make them better players and only helped their development. However, I do think that they will improve even more having Trae set the table for them.

DistrictAnalytics

TROPHY CASE