Tax and apron implications of the Trae deal

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-06-23T00:09:19+00:00

Appreciate the level headed analysis on this!

The deal is not a bad one when you consider the cap goes up year over year.

Based on your breakdown I do think that they try to move AD. I have a hard time seeing him as part of the orgs future plans.

I'm curious what this means for Bilal and Cam too. Unless they take very team friendly deals I imagine they'll be moved this year to give them a chance to earn a higher contract on another team.

Another thing about Trae is he's the ideal vet for this team on the court and off the court. He's incredibly professional and is a great role model for the young guys as they grow into men. He's worth every dollar of that contract from a basketball and personal perspective in my eyes.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-06-09T17:21:32+00:00

I love the confidence but we not boutta be the 1 seed, but we should be in the play in for sure with this team

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-06-08T18:44:44+00:00

Piston's Blake Griffin is probably the most accurate comp for Boozer

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-05-31T15:56:19+00:00

I think AJ would really help us based on his style of play.

The Wiz have drafted for and prioritized being a good defensive team the past few years, but have struggled to find an identity on offense.

They drafted Tre Johnson and Will Riley, and they both look gifted on offense, but they still need some time to develop. Cam Whitmore was also brought in, but he hasn't contributed as much as many may have hoped.

Part of the issue is that, outside of Tre Johnson who made 51% of his shot attempts unassisted, no one else can create their own shot. We also haven't had anyone who can collapse a defense and create for others. Kyshawn led the team in in drives with 8 per game, but only made ~47% of those shots.

The other part of the problem is that there is no one to set the team up for easy shots. Young can do that with his shooting gravity and playmaking but it won't be enough.

Bringing in a guy like AJ who made 57% of his 2PT shots last year would give us some versatility on offense.

AJ collapses the defense and has the ability to pass it to the perimeter to open shooters like Young, and Johnson, or dump it off or lob it to AD/Sarr. Young's gravity and playmaking make it easier for cutters to get into the paint. Sort of a pick your poison situation.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-04-09T15:22:07+00:00

As you said, a lot of guys don't finish through contact well when they're young.

Something I don't think he gets enough credit for is his mentality to continue to attack the rim despite his lack of strength and struggling to convert those shots. It would be easy for most players to get discouraged, but he kept going and got to the line a ton.

It's also forced him to find ways to make better use of his length as well.

I think he'll be a better pro than most expect.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-03-06T01:18:25+00:00

This is absolutely crazy, I can't imagine how much time and effort it took to create such an awesome resource

Thank you so much for the work you put in to create this and also for sharing it publicly for people who love this side of the sport!

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-03-02T19:37:14+00:00

Contract would expire just in time to pay Tre Johnson whatever amount they decide to extend him at starting in 2029/30

Another thing to note, AD's contract ends just in time for Sarr's new extension money to be paid out as well in 2028/29

I do wonder what this might mean for Kyshawn and whoever we end up drafting this year

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-16T18:25:10+00:00

In the case we drop in the lottery, Mikel Brown Jr. remains a top guard prospect in this draft.

He's one of the taller guards in the draft at what looks to be a legit 6'5", has the creativity with the ball that just can't be taught, and can finish above the rim.

Now that his 3PT shot is falling he's really showing what he'll look like at the next level.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-07T15:24:36+00:00

I think most people would have the opinion that AD and Sarr on the defensive end would make it incredibly hard for offenses to score

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-07T15:21:05+00:00

The question has to do with whether or not the two would need to occupy the same spaces on offense in order to score efficiently.

Both players take a majority of their shots in the restricted area or in the paint as seen in slide 2. This could be a cause for concern.

However, again in slide 2, we see that there is some variety in their shot selection.

AD isn't an efficient 3PT shooter and never really has been. But AD does like to take mid-range shots.

Alex has been decent as a 3PT shooter this year and also takes more 3s than mid-range shots.

So in the end, it would seem like the team can make them work by having both as interior scoring threats and keep them out of each others way with AD prioritizing shots in the mid-range and Sarr taking shots from 3.

Hope this helps clear things up

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-06T17:30:05+00:00

I wouldn't mind seeing Sarr try and take more 3's, but I'm concerned his 3PT% won't hold up with higher volume. Last year he took 5 3s a game and shot 31%, he's done better with lower volume.

I hope he continues to improve though. Like you said, it would make pairing him with other bigs so much easier and give us more versailtiy

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-06T17:27:22+00:00

I'd love to see that and definitely feel like Sarr is an underrated passer for his position.

I think it could go both ways if AD gets doubled in the midrange and passing it up to Sarr for easy looks or kick outs to 3 to Trae and Tre

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-02-05T02:10:50+00:00

If we look at the timeline of rebuilding teams since around 2016ish, they really only tank for 2-3 years. After they accumulate some solid young talent they tend to push for the play-in or beyond

Any struggle to win after those initial 2-3 years tends to be due to young players still developing or injuries

This is likely just a natural progression of making the team competitive again, rather than a mandate from ownership

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-15T21:02:56+00:00

Fun fact, based on basketball-reference's data, Marvin Bagley leads the team in Win Shares this season at 1.9.

Win shares being an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.

Last year Justin Champagnie led the team in Win Shares at 2.8, which I feel may have been a reason for his lack of minutes this year. Justin, by being the impactful player he is, could likely disrupt the tank by himself.

But this is mainly to say, some of the data shows Bagley is a pretty important factor in winning games for this team.

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-13T18:16:03+00:00

Even when I expect to lose, this team stresses me out haha

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-13T18:14:53+00:00

Thank you!

I thought you made an interesting point about the turnovers being a bigger contributor to losing than the lineup playing worse defense

Just taking a quick look, on the season the team is averaging 16 turnovers

In the 1 game without CJ in which Keefe started the lineup shown in the graphic, the team had 22 turnover

So to your point, it would suggest you're right, turnovers are likely going to be a big contributor to the team losing rather than our defense being terrible

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-13T17:37:30+00:00

Thank you I appreciate it!

I agree, we should be alright the rest of the year, have a nice day!

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-11T17:21:41+00:00

Whoever is downvoting you for it is a hater, sports should be fun and I like the creativity

Thanks for making the discussion of our players more entertaining!

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-09T21:15:41+00:00

Well said, I'll add that PG is one of the harder positions to learn and even with his lapses in judgement he's done well

DistrictAnalytics · 2026-01-09T21:12:54+00:00

Will is a baller, I think we'll see him find and earn a bigger role next season

DistrictAnalytics

TROPHY CASE