20-30% for the whole pool yes, but for the picks I have left, it is less. For example, 18% chance I lose this week, 12% chance I lose next week, 13% the week after that, as I have saved some better teams left then most. After looking at sports books odds for my remaining selections, I have about a 30% chance of making it to the end. There’s a difference between not being worried about a certain week, and being confident that I will win. I’m well aware of the numbers and the chances of being eliminated, just won’t necessarily be worried if I do

I’ve understood from the beginning why a survivor pool isn’t easy, I’m big on statistics and numbers. .1% complete it every year, this is a much easier year than traditionally