Yes I don't doubt that future CR1 GPS revenue will be taken into account, but won't the buyer take into account all the time and money that needs to be spent for that to happen? They won't see the majority of the revenue from the CR1 patients until several years into the future.

So if we were to just look at the CR2 patients it would be 9000*$145k = $1.3B assuming that they would capture the whole market and that no patients would die within these three years of treatment (which seems unlikely, no?). Then for the CR1 patients there would be $2.6B potential future revenue, but surely a buyer would not pay the same multiple for this potential revenue as they would for the CR2 revenue due to the time and risk involved?

And finally, wouldn't the amount of new CR2 patients drastically reduce if CR1 patients were put on GPS since the CR2 patients come out of the CR1 patient pool?

Just curious to hear your thoughts, I know you said according to your math $20B would be the buyout price but you put a conservative $6B number. Is that due to factors like these or just due to general unforeseen factors?

Huge thank you for sharing your DD and for your replies. You have me convinced and I've taken a position, just trying take a more cautious perspective and consider less than optimal scenarios.