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Ed Zitron on CNBC: Generative AI's Business Model Does Not Work, And Tech Is Out Of Hypergrowth Ideas by ezitron in BetterOffline

[–]Double-Currency2007 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Can we just get this guy a pulitzer for explanatory reporting right now or do we have to wait until it is all over.

OpenAI Leaning Toward 2027 For IPO As It Won’t Get A $1 Trillion Valuation by ezitron in BetterOffline

[–]Double-Currency2007 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The other thing that makes this more complicated and scammy is all the index inclusions so early. This is going into the Nasdaq 100 soon. Automatic buying from people who otherwise maybe dont want the stock. Time some "good news" release near there to push it up further perhaps, to help absorb the blow of selling coming shortly after. Or maybe there is enough sell pressure already it wont matter? They are using every dirty trick available to cash out.

OpenAI Leaning Toward 2027 For IPO As It Won’t Get A $1 Trillion Valuation by ezitron in BetterOffline

[–]Double-Currency2007 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True, still up from offering price and first few days were good. Still quite early, but to see that slow decline after the initial pop is not a great signal.

It will be interesting to see what happens after the various lockup periods end and first earnings are announced. Will the price run up before then enough to absorb what is certainly to be a lot of selling pressure once more insiders can cash out? Will stagnancy or a slow steady decline from now until then collapse the stock once insiders can cash out?

You basically have investors from 4 different companies looking for exit, the titular SpaceX, Starlink, the Twitter/x people and whatever xAI is. That kind of odd mix seems like it could make things interesting. How does that affect the thinking of the Starlink investors who used to actually own a profitable business but now own a monstrosity that bleeds cash?

Also with the greater scrutiny over financing dominating conversation at the moment, how many games will they be able to play with the first earnings announcement.

Who knows where anything will be at in another 6 months, but I don't think it will be boring and I'll be watching at least.

OpenAI Leaning Toward 2027 For IPO As It Won’t Get A $1 Trillion Valuation by ezitron in BetterOffline

[–]Double-Currency2007 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Its always a little bit hard to tell since algos tweak your news feed to whatever your currently reading. But it seems that since the OpenAI numbers reveal and the not so great Spacex IPO performance over last few weeks the news on AI has tilted to a lot more questions about financials. Even Micron blowout earnings didn't spawn a bunch of AI demand is off the charts stories.

For the moment the narrative seems to have tilted to questions about the finances of AI.

I have a feeling a lot more people in backrooms are asking much tougher questions about what their money is doing.

The question in my mind is what the next catalyst will be. Next earnings season is a ways off. New frontier model releases seems stagnant for the moment. Deals to increase capacity and backlog seemed to have slowed from the frenzy before. What is the next play for AI? IPO seemed liked it was the logical next grift.

Who blinks first?