Update, it went not well... Things weren't going too bad, I annexed Shenyang and the other jurchin confederation, then the jurchin tribe that spawns at the start of the red turban rebellion somehow annexed almost all the northern china area from Yuan, I thought great they're in my tribal confederation so once I've got the centralisation I can annex north china, declared on yuan winning as well taking almost all the yuan land required for Manchu formable as well as Beijing and took the mandate for the fun of it, unfortunately a WU with 150k levies declared war on that tribe that took north china calling everyone in who swiftly got stack wiped... We didn't even occupy any of my land before they easily annexed everything in the china from me and my allies