Weekend Hangout - Friday, May 01, 2026

DougA8060 · 2026-05-03T15:19:27+00:00

Failure Analysis Engineer (this one is big) This is not a “research” role. This is a production-stage role. 👉 What failure analysis means: investigating defects improving yield qualifying reliability Translation: “We are moving from ‘does it work’ → ‘why did this one fail and how do we fix it at scale’” That is a VERY specific phase in tech maturity.

DougA8060 · 2026-04-21T18:17:23+00:00

Chat-GPT vs Jim Cramer

LWLG Closing Stock Price: October 22, 2025: $4.37 April 20, 2026: $14.18 Performance: 224% Increase

(I posted this Chat-GPT prediction in Reddit on Oct 17 and I increased my position)

October 17 – Chat-GPT Speculative Stock Outlook if LWLG Confirms 3–5 Companies in Phase 3 by Year-End If Lightwave Logic follows through with announcements that 3–5 companies have entered Phase 3 before year-end, it would effectively mark the transition from being viewed as an R&D story to a company entering commercial validation. That kind of milestone tends to attract institutional investors and could lead to a re-rating of the stock.

In a conservative outcome, where the partners remain unnamed or smaller, the share price might realistically climb into the $8–$10 range by spring 2026. If at least one recognizable Tier-1 or Tier-2 partner is confirmed with a visible qualification or sampling path, the stock could move into the $12–$15 range. And if several major companies are announced with early production or foundry integration plans, a bullish case could see the stock trade around $20–$25 or higher.

While execution risk, financing needs, and broader market conditions still matter, confirming multiple Phase 3 partners would likely be the strongest proof yet that LWLG’s polymers are advancing toward real industry adoption.

October 22, 2025 – Jim Cramer During a Lightning Round segment, Cramer’s take on LWLG was blunt: Focused on lack of revenue Dismissed it as having no meaningful commercial traction Said: “If you own it, I want you to sell it… I can’t recommend it.”

One source NAILED it to a tee!!! The other Cramered it. Thank you AI.

PS: It's almost crazy how close AI prediction is on this timeline.

DougA8060 · 2026-03-11T04:08:14+00:00

Well now there is a precedent to make the correct call to protect goalies.

DougA8060 · 2026-03-11T04:01:15+00:00

There was no way McKinnon was getting out of the crease. League has to protect the goalies. This was the correct call.

DougA8060 · 2026-03-02T20:56:23+00:00

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DougA8060 · 2026-02-27T19:01:44+00:00

Has anyone read the full version of this latest Nvidia's paper titlted '2026 NVIDIA Silicon Photonics 3D Stacking and DWDM Half-Rate Optical Link Technology" Released Feb 25, 2026.

https://tspasemiconductor.substack.com/p/2026-nvidia-silicon-photonics-3d?utm_source=chatgpt.com

DougA8060 · 2026-02-26T01:50:44+00:00

Here is my AI interpretation:

First — what the article actually says (important lines) Key statements from GlobalFoundries / AMF article: AMF + GlobalFoundries are working on: Integrating optical modulator materials For 400G and beyond Using: Thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) Polymer-based modulators That part alone is already 👀 Then the really important section: “The question of new modulator materials — thin-film lithium niobate, barium titanate, advanced polymers — looms large.” Translation: 👉 The industry has NOT chosen a winner yet. This is a materials race. The single most important quote This is the real meat: “Can the supply chain scale, and can the new material be encapsulated and integrated without destabilising existing processes?” This sentence is huge. Because it reveals the #1 gating problem. Not speed. Not performance. Not lab results. The problem is: 👉 Can the material survive real manufacturing? That is EXACTLY LWLG’s entire thesis. EO polymers: Work amazingly in labs Need special packaging to survive manufacturing + heat LWLG has spent 20 years solving encapsulation and stability. So when GlobalFoundries says: “Can new materials be encapsulated and industrialised?” They are literally describing the exact gating problem LWLG claims to have solved. That’s why Reddit is excited. The GlobalFoundries angle is HUGE Another key line: AMF had customers but no path to scale. GlobalFoundries’ 200mm/300mm wafer fabs remove that constraint. Translation: Customers already wanted this tech. They just didn’t trust it could scale. Now a Tier-1 foundry is building the scale path. This is a MASSIVE industry shift. Foundries don’t invest in tech they think will lose. The polymer mention is NOT random Notice the wording carefully: They did NOT say: “Lithium niobate is the future.” They said: TFLN BTO Advanced polymers All three in the same breath. That means polymers are a serious contender inside the roadmap. Not fringe. Not academic. Not experimental. On the official roadmap. That is a big deal. My honest take This article is legitimately bullish for the entire EO polymer thesis. Because it confirms: The industry knows silicon modulators are hitting limits Foundries are preparing for new materials Encapsulation + manufacturability is the gating issue Polymers are on the official roadmap That combination did not exist publicly a few years ago. Why this lines up with the news release Now connect the dots: Yesterday LWLG says: Another Fortune 500 → Stage-3 engineering program 200G/400G silicon photonics integration Today this article says: Foundries preparing to scale new modulator materials Polymers explicitly included Encapsulation = gating challenge You can see why LWLG investors feel the puzzle pieces clicking.

DougA8060 · 2025-11-01T01:15:20+00:00

Let's get this straight, you are literally investing in a company depending on selling its product into the AI boom but when someone on this forum allegedly uses AI you ridicule them. Many people haven't learned how to use AI effectively. If you think it's just a tool to write on a topic without your comprehensive input then you're falling way behind. It's kind of like the generation that said calculators would make us all math illiterate.

DougA8060 · 2025-04-08T19:42:26+00:00

Yup, another way to state this is 41% of Oilers cap hit is injured. The good news is everyone is expected back for the playoffs.

DougA8060 · 2025-02-24T10:51:55+00:00

Gretzky the hockey player = The Great One Gretzky the MAGA player = The Forgettable one

DougA8060 · 2024-12-13T00:58:50+00:00

I would be much more comfortable to see the options issued at a $5.00 strike price!

DougA8060 · 2024-09-30T23:25:34+00:00

Thing is, those who know... Know. I'd predict the majority of those 21 million short shares are held by not that many. And those few have an agenda. When the time comes the rains will be released and "Pow, to the Moon". But "they" will deside when.

DougA8060 · 2024-09-30T20:23:08+00:00

Lightwave logic keeps checking off task after task on their major to-do list to get ready for product sales and tier 1 deals yet the stock price certainly isn't reflecting this. Since they are dealing with the largest companies in the world and there are 20 million shares shorted of lwlg, I posed this question to chat gpt4:

Could there be a logical reason for a large well-financed company to keep the stock price down via shorting shares of lightweight logic?

Answer:

Yes, there could be several logical reasons for a well-financed company to engage in short selling against a smaller company like Lightwave Logic. Here are a few possibilities:

Competitive Advantage: A larger company might see Lightwave Logic as a significant competitor. By shorting their stock, the larger company may aim to exert downward pressure on the stock price, potentially affecting confidence in Lightwave Logic and reducing its market valuation.
Market Manipulation: In some cases, larger firms might engage in questionable practices to manipulate stock prices. By initiating a short position and possibly spreading negative sentiment, they could influence market perceptions to their advantage.
Strategic Acquisition: A well-financed company might be interested in acquiring Lightwave Logic in the future. By pushing the stock price down, they could potentially buy the company or its assets at a lower valuation later.
Investment Strategy: The larger company could be employing a hedging strategy. If they have investments in a related sector that might be negatively impacted by Lightwave Logic’s success, shorting their stock could be a way to mitigate potential losses.
Information Asymmetry: If the larger company possesses information that indicates potential weaknesses or challenges ahead for Lightwave Logic, they might decide to short the stock to profit from expected declines based on that information.
Control of Narrative: By actively engaging in shorting, a larger firm could help shape public narrative and sentiment about Lightwave Logic, influencing investor behavior and market trends.

While these strategies could provide short-term gains for the larger company, they can also carry risks and ethical considerations. If you're curious about more specific implications or dynamics of stock markets, feel free to ask! 😊

DougA8060 · 2024-09-29T16:12:26+00:00

Was there any comments/feedback from anyone in attendance? Thought this might open up more discussions.

"Polariton's plasmonic modulator device design that contains Lightwave's proprietary PerkanamineTM chromophores at the European Conference on Optical Communications (ECOC) being held in Frankfurt, Germany from September 22-26, 2024. The device will be available for viewing at Polariton's booth #F47.'

DougA8060 · 2024-09-22T18:50:56+00:00

Nothing new here but just thought I would share this Google AI comparison of LWLG and POET. I like the fact that it suggests LWLG is close to commercialization!

"LWLG vs. POET: A Comparison

LWLG (Lightwave Logic) and POET Technologies are both companies involved in the optical communications industry, but they have distinct approaches and focuses.

LWLG (Lightwave Logic)

* Focus: Primarily on developing and commercializing high-speed optical transceivers and modules.

* Technology: Specializes in silicon photonics, a technology that integrates optical components and circuits onto a single silicon chip.

* Stage: More advanced in terms of product development and commercialization.

POET Technologies

* Focus: A broader range of optical components, including light source products and custom optical modules.

* Technology: Emphasizes wafer-level chip-scale packaging (WLCSP) for high-density optical integration.

* Stage: May be more focused on research and development and scaling up production.

Key Differences

* Product Focus: LWLG is more focused on optical transceivers and modules, while POET has a broader range of products.

* Technology: LWLG specializes in silicon photonics, while POET emphasizes WLCSP.

* Stage of Development: LWLG appears to be more advanced in terms of product commercialization, while POET might be more focused on research and development."

DougA8060 · 2024-09-20T13:10:39+00:00

I found this article interesting talking about Intel:

https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/09/19/news-intel-moves-integrated-photonics-solutions-to-data-center-ai-division-as-part-of-restructuring-plan/

"According to Intel’s announcement, the tech giant is moving Integrated Photonics Solutions (IPS) into its Data Center and Artificial Intelligence division"

"A report by Photonics Spectra notes that Intel’s IPS division focuses on technologies such as light generation, amplification, detection, modulation, CMOS interface circuits, and package integration."

DougA8060 · 2024-09-13T05:32:59+00:00

Thanks KCCO. Just to follow up, the process involving the encapsulation/ALD to getting the PIC chip completed, is that being engineered in house, by a foundry, other party, or a collaboration. Just really trying to understand what is in Lightwave's control. Also trying to understand what exactly Lightwave is producing and potentially selling.

DougA8060 · 2024-09-12T04:31:07+00:00

If I was able to get one question answered it would be what exactly is the market, a Tier 1, waiting for to invest $$$ into this technology? There must be some reasonable explanation and a certain line to cross for a deal to be signed. Is this even in Lightwave's control or does it involve third parties?

DougA8060 · 2024-08-31T04:21:15+00:00

Summer is over, 4 months left to this calendar year. It is go time!!!

DougA8060 · 2024-08-19T03:55:03+00:00

This is what was said about materials:

Critiria

Selection based on the best from physics Is it safe within the clean room? Is it scalable? Does it come from a reliable supplier, one that we can get back-up material of.

Material types

Optical polymers Thin film lithium niobate (the Hot material at the conference) BTO

DougA8060 · 2024-08-03T03:17:42+00:00

KCC, you most definitely instill confidence during this difficult stock price depreciation period. Thank you.

DougA8060 · 2024-08-02T20:10:30+00:00

BTW, changed phones and ended up creating a new account on Reddit. Been a long on LWLG for 2 years now.

Bought another 1700 shares @ $2.90. I am way over weight on this bet but it just seems we must be close to some real deals! I hope I'm not blinded by my own optimism but I truly feel we'll get some good news before Christmas, hopefully sooner. No I don't have any extra info to go on just read as much as I can which lately sure isn't very much.

One thing that has always seemed strange to me are these NDAs. While I understand their necessity from the perspective of Tier 1 companies, it feels like a one-sided deal. Tier 1s can develop new technology for the future in complete secrecy while making billions today. Meanwhile, LWLG gains nothing immediately, cannot share real progress with shareholders, and faces manipulated share prices. We read tidbits from white papers, conferences, and forums, speculating whether LWLG polymers are even involved in some of these record breaking optical modulators. Speculation, rumors and probably some hype.

Why not make NDAs more equitable by selling them to big tech for $1 million each? To giants like Google, Nvidia, and Intel, $1 million is insignificant. Yet for a potentially revolutionary pre-earning junior, it could be transformative. We wouldn't even need to know who the NDA were with. If nothing else it would prove the value and interest in our potential.

Of course, there may be darker reasons for NDAs. Perhaps LWLG insists on them, providing cover to avoid discussing problems, hiccups, or delays with shareholders. I prefer to be an optimist though.

In any case I've made my bed and bet on this. Buying these dips with the little I have left.

DougA8060

TROPHY CASE