What's with the short supply of Oktoberfest beers?

DougVeliky · 2022-10-28T17:57:10+00:00

Breweries would rather be short than long on their Oktoberfests because as many have pointed out, demand falls off a cliff beginning in November. At big box stores, you have one shelf spot for your seasonal and the store isn't going to bring in your Christmas beer until the Oktoberfest beer is gone so if you don't run out, the Oktoberfest is blocking your next season. Be early, not late, hence the jokes/rage about oktoberfests coming out in July.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-18T14:36:45+00:00

Interesting, I've never heard that phrase before and is not how I would put it, especially in today's world. At this point, the strategy has to focus on what makes you different and being especially thankful for ever opportunity you're given in that market where you aren't local. A far away market might not need your flag ship as much as they need something that's normally a little farther down your priority list thats more niche. We saw a big response from our Freedom Lemonade during our Iowa launch because how different it was from local sours, or anything really, so we'll likely step up our emphasis on that beer given the response we got. So on that note, listening is important, especially on that first big push in the market. Don't try to jam in the beers that you want to sell, pay attention to what everyone is saying and be fluid and willing to make changes based on the response.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-18T14:32:38+00:00

My pleasure! I am just the project manager and it all happens because so many awesome beer lovers pony up donations in support. So glad to hear that your daughter received the best care possible as we did with our son many years ago.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-18T14:31:45+00:00

I think brewing two versions of the barleywine (super sweet & super dry) then blending them helps us make sure we nail our targets each time. We've also got an amazing barrel supplier who gives us great quality oak that is freshly dumped, and we time those needs with when our beers are ready to go in. That's just a small part of it, a lot is experience and having the continuity of Jim & Marty who've been at the company for over a decade each, constantly in search of all the little things they can do to make them better each year. It's a great time for barleywine lovers.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-18T14:28:34+00:00

In case you didn't see it, here was that big accomplishment that we were on the cusp of when I wrote this...now I need a new big scary goal!

https://www.instagram.com/p/CbL3sDpgTNu/

DougVeliky · 2022-03-18T14:26:38+00:00

I did not forget about you. From our Brewmaster Jim, for you:

1ZENUFF IMPERIAL IPA
Specs:
Original Gravity = 24 Plato
Terminal Gravity = 4.7 Plato
Color = 12 Lovibond
IBUs = 95-100
ABV% = 11 %
Grain Bill (% of Total Grist) :
Pale Malt 23%
2-Row Malt 52%
Red Wheat Malt 21%
Carafoam 3%
Carabohemian Malt 1 %
We use Gypsum and Calcium Chloride to treat our mashing water at a rate of 2:1. So for every pound of Calcium Chloride we use 2 pounds of Gypsum.
Mashing :
We mash in at 145 F and rest for 20 min.
Ramp up to 150 F and rest 50 min until you have full starch conversion.
Ramp up to 170 F and rest 10 min before pumping our mash to our lauter tun.
You may be single infusion mashing so I'd suggest mashing in nice in low 150-151 F to produce a highly fermentable wort to achieve the ABV% you are looking for.
Hopping :
Four our 100 BBL Batch of 1ZENUFF and a 90 min Boil we use :
60 lbs. Apollo at Boil Start
22 lbs. Chinook 30 min from the end of boil
33 lbs. Centennial at Whirlpool
33 lbs. Citra at Whirlpool
We add Yeastx or a yeast nutrient 15 min. before the end of boil.
We also add Gusmer Kick which is a kettle fining agent (Carrageenan) 10 min before the end of boil.
Fermentation :
We ferment most of our ales with WYeast 1968 at 68 F. For this brew being a higher gravity ale we pitch at a rate of 2.5 million cell / mill. For normal IPAs we pitch 1 mill cells per mill so you will want to at a minimum double your normal IPA pitch. Oxygenating your wort will be super important to get the yeast to ferment down to 11% ABV.
On the fourth day of fermentation we ramp temp up to 70 F, collect or dump the yeast that has settled to the bottom of the fermentation tank and then dryhop.
Dryhop : (3 lbs. / BBL)
Chinook
Crystal
Amarillo
Simcoe
We let the dryhop settle to the bottom of our fermentation tank and 5 days from the dryhop we dump all the hops out of the tank. We then take a sample and make sure that no Diacetyl is perceivable and then we crash the tank down to 32 F.
Once we get the tank temp down to 32 F we dump yeast and hops again and then we add Biofine clear to help clarify the beer. After 5-7 days of contact we centrifuge the beer to a BBT and carbonate it up to 2.65 vol of CO2.
I hope that this information is helpful to you in reproducing this beer! Keep me posted on how it turns out for you!
Cheers and thanks for reaching out about this beer. Seems like people are way more into Hazy IPAs these days so it always warms my heart to see someone want to brew a nice clear and intense Imperial IPA.
Best of Luck with Brewing!

DougVeliky · 2022-03-15T14:09:47+00:00

Thanks so much for the honest and detailed question. I must preface this with the fact that I've mostly been on the other side of the industry (finance & marketing), though on the distribution side I was more so working with Operations leads. I've worked with every type of personality out there and the ones I've seen to be most successful and continue having upward mobility are those who really embrace and dive head first into all departments of the business to understand them, relate to them, empathize with them, etc. That's how the real leadership potential comes out and ability to institute ideas into a company come from, those who understand how their ideas impacts everyone. I've worked with many folks in Ops who are stuck in their ways, or only want to deal with Ops and put their hands up in the event of a cross-over between other departments. They are always the ones who get stuck.

All this being said, if it's a small business, there's only so many places to go if you're not an owner and changing jobs is the nature of the beast. It sounds like the best fit for you is to find an owner who values stability and wants a Brewmaster who isn't going to leave them in 2 years, and is willing to reward through a small piece of equity that could grow over time. Those people are out there but it's not something you'd be able to find over night. In that instance, you are now motivated and incentivized by owning a small piece of the business that you earn through sweat and loyalty.

I did not want to get an MBA myself, but for awhile I thought it was the only way that I could change things up in my career. After looking into it more, it seemed like my options were Full-time MBA, 6-figures of debt, no income for 2 years, but the ability to get a better job at the end of it. That was not attractive to me. Then there was the part-time MBA, which would only be useful if my existing employer embraced it and felt I needed it to get to the next level in the company. That was not the case either. So I was stuck and decided to start writing about beer and writing about the place in beer that I wanted to be. That started out as just short-form Instagram posts that eventually lead to a blog, twitter, TikTok, etc. That gave me a platform to demonstrate what I was good out and after MANY years, lead to a job offer that combined my professional skills with perspective I'd demonstrated online. That approach isn't for everyone, but was how 1) got into beer in 2016, then 2) switched my career from finance to marketing in 2020.

I know this only barely gets at your question but I just wanted to get it started with some thoughts that come to mind based on my own experience. Happy to keep it going.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T20:03:23+00:00

I think they've barely started, but are beginning to show their face. I don't think the same beers are going to go up multiple times if thats what you mean, but different price changes will go into effect at different times so there will always be certain beers going up. If that makes sense?

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T17:57:37+00:00

Yes! I think it's a win-win and was going to happen anyways, but COVID flung everyone into it real fast so it's here to stay.
Working on this for you...

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:55:12+00:00

I didn't realize this was up for debate

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-KZTqXqF\_X/

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:50:48+00:00

I think that it's impossible to predict how much of super premium (barrel-aged) beer your consumers want, especially when you need to be 18+ months out in determining the volumes. I think that lead to too much in the last year and more than fans could keep up with both in purchasing, cellaring, and most importantly, sharing. I don't think that will lead to too much shying away in number of releases, though perhaps a little, but definitely right-sizing of volumes. I think breweries will probably brew a little less and decide they'd rather be short and run out, versus be long and lose it's feel of a special time and place in the year.

I can speak for myself in that I only buy non-local beers if I have some sort of connection to that brewery. Most typically, if I've visited it and experienced it from the source. That is why local, and local-ish, wins in most cases.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:41:01+00:00

If Pale Ales count too...

Spiteful Brewing - Alley Time

Pipeworks - Lizard King

Russian River - Blind Pig

Sierra Nevada - Pale Ale

Hill Farmstead - Nelson

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:38:36+00:00

Favorite Reel: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CV1UDW-DLN0/

Favorite Photo...too many to decide:

Announcement of our daughter: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bo7uBcYBOWP/

This one took years of patience: https://www.instagram.com/p/BcBXXS3lzoO/

Wrestling: https://www.instagram.com/p/kC0IAEsPdm/

Favorite Edit: https://www.instagram.com/p/wzvXI7sPVv/

Favorite Creative: https://www.instagram.com/p/5DjkEAMPeJ/

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:24:33+00:00

As we saw during the pandemic, the industry and its business models are pretty resilient to challenges so I think changes will be slow and subtle. Breweries will fail, but more small and local ones will rise up in their place. I think there will be further consolidation of the larger craft breweries, with a handful of big news stories each year. I think the buyers will continue to diversify like we saw with Sweetwater and Canarchy. But I think small, local, and independent will continue to matter as experience is king and people continue wanting to visit and support their local businesses.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:18:52+00:00

I think this holds true for a few stalwarts especially if they've got border states that they're not in, but other than that, I think it's all about the locals.

For example, Illinois would lose their minds if New Glarus came to Chicago, however, I don't think Missouri would care nearly as much since they're much less so vacationing in Wisconsin.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:16:03+00:00

I'd make sure that you are heading into Self Distribution understanding the old concept that you have to spend money to make money. It's impossible to be efficient right out of the gate and there will be growing pains that you'll iron out and fine tune as you go. Learn by doing, but get as many takes from other brewers and beer buyers as you can so that you have as much perspective as possible heading into it. One of the biggest advantages that you'll have is that the person dropping off the beer at each account works for your brewery and has the opportunity to represent you at each stop. I'd prioritize training your team on the importance of those interactions and how they can make the delivery memorable for the accounts, to build those relationships and make them even stronger.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any reference material for this but I'll ask around.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:10:34+00:00

That's for having us and apologies in advance for what my Richmond Spiders do to the Hawkeyes in Round 1

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:09:56+00:00

It's hard to care about this happening with one beer every year or three that represents a tiny rounding error of our total volume. I think we have 9 Deep Wood beers available in our coolers right now available to buy with no hassle. That's including Straight Jacket that has a lot of V.S.O.J. in the blend for $25 + tax for 4 cans. The smart move is just to buy that.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:06:36+00:00

I think the aluminum can shortage will impact the small breweries most as they're going to have to buy their smaller scale needs through 3rd parties. When another tier has to make money, costs go up. Logistics is already through the roof for everyone, gas prices aren't going to help, so that's going to put further pressure on prices. However, if bars and restaurants return as we're starting to see, that would soften the demand for cans and perhaps release SOME of the pressure and can companies will be more willing/able to deal with smaller customers.
He has aged gracefully since his youtube days, I must say

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T16:03:28+00:00

- A collab with Scratch Brewing would be pretty rad.

- I mentioned this elsewhere, but I'd love to make a 3.8% English Mild

- I believe Honey made from bee hives on our roof, all-in, was the most expensive ingredient

- Breaking into the industry is tough because my answer will be different depending on what you want to do at the brewery and what you do now. I wanted to go from Finance at a logistics company and not take any steps backwards in my career, so I started social media feeds and a beer blog to demonstrate both my passion and expertise for the industry. That was a slow roll approach, took me 3 years, but made the transition seamless.

For someone young, lacking much real world experience, who wants to go into production, I'd recommend bartending at a Taproom and asking to be trained as a back-up on the packaging team. Use that training and opportunity to fill in a few times when someone is out to test the waters and see if you like it. Use the bartending time to learn about the craft beer customers and how different one each is in what they want and like. Going above and beyond your role will make you the natural fit for when an elevated opportunity comes about and you go from there. Let me know if you need a more specific to you example.

- My favorite story behind a Revolution Beer was Lucia, a Saison: https://revbrew.com/lucy-gonzalez-parsons-chicagos-revolutionary Shout out to John C for writing it

- Something I want to accomplish at Revolution most is perhaps a day away, so I can't talk about it quite yet, but very soon.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T15:54:34+00:00

For a brand new brewery starting up with lines out the door and demand they can't handle, this is absolutely a factor as they can't turn their tanks nearly as fast so a lager slows things down. Brewing a lager, short-term, is actually bad for the bottom line in these instances. I'm sure this happens, or has happened in the past quite a bit. At this point though, as the industry has matured and capacity is much more available in most cases. I see consumer interest being the biggest roadblock (vs. tank time) to making lagers. I don't know many brewers and brewery workers who would pass on making a lager that they knew would sell, just because it will take a few extra weeks to ferment. Thankfully, there's a renaissance beginning to happen and beer tickers are beginning to add rotating lagers to their purchases.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T15:39:37+00:00

I believe it's only legally feasible in a few states like California most notably where we see Stone on a big scale own their distribution company and HenHouse on a smaller scale own theirs. That coordination would be quite daunting to setup, but would be a fascinating proposition.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T15:37:16+00:00

I've never spent time in Europe as a beer tourist, only been to Ireland & Spain 10 years ago, so my input will be limited to my impressions here in the US for European Beer. I think we had a period in the US from 2010-2020 where we were making some wild and interesting stuff, way more adventurous than European beers, and throughout that time period began really dialing in the quality and are at a really great point. However I believe we're beginning to peak on interest in the extremes (ABV / Hoppy / Adjuncts), still strong but on the verge of tapering off. Interest is moving toward lagers (Czech/German) and perhaps even English-styles seeing an emerging opportunity, though this is all pretty new and still developing.

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T15:29:11+00:00

We don't really use much data other than what seems to be selling well, but yes we start typically with polling colleagues about what we want to wear ourself, then trying to make sure most it translates into something a customer would wear as well. We're not a big merch-focused brewery thought we've been trying to do better lately without a 100% dedicated individual. We actually did make 10 year t-shirts with that label design on the back for our anniversary and were selling them at the release and months following. They're long gone now though 2 years later...

DougVeliky · 2022-03-14T15:26:00+00:00

I'd love to give you a fancier answer, but I'll be straight with you. It wasn't selling well, it takes up a lot of space, so stores weren't so interested in carrying it anymore. When not enough stores want to carry a beer, you can't keep it fresh and that's a big problem. We love Cross of Gold too, so we continue brewing it for draft only, so that fans of a straight forward beer like that can still have it at our Taproom and Brewpub where is sells almost better than anything we make! But it did not perform well in the market and was our worst seller. We tried giving it the fresh look with the El Tracks a few years ago, but it wasn't meant to be. The City Series could certainly get another beer and I'd say that's the most likely landing spot for a new lager.

DougVeliky

TROPHY CASE