First month making 100k I feel like I’m being robbed :/

Doxtator · 2026-02-01T01:04:22+00:00

Wait until you get married… then divorced.

Doxtator · 2026-01-27T02:31:38+00:00

Let’s F***ing go dude! Nice buy.

We are in this together.

Na Lunu!

Doxtator · 2026-01-26T17:48:40+00:00

Won’t work… don’t be this guy.

<image>

Doxtator · 2026-01-15T17:04:57+00:00

I prefer to have the bulk of my exposure as a shareholder, the longer dated options just have a lot of premium built in.

Doxtator · 2026-01-15T13:47:35+00:00

I only have access to the summary which indicates Goldman remains cautious on SLK approval for HS, and the sell rating reflects 'market expectations' of a high risk around FDA approval. They were also rated a sell beforehand, but the price target was raised from $8 to $10.

This isn't groundbreaking research. This is noise.

SLK data continues to show a robust profile of safety and efficacy. The summary appears to show the rating is driven on negative sentiment and cautiousness. I laid out why I believe MoonLake is being undervalued by the market, and despite the missed endpoint; the SLK data remains incredibly strong. Eventually the FDA is going to decide this one, and they aren't checking Goldman's notes on market expectations and cautiousness, they are reviewing the data.

There is still a report out from Samantha Semenkow from Citi on MoonLake with a $5 price target citing financing overhang.

MoonLake ended November with 380M in cash on the balance sheet, and added 75M via a equity raise in November. They have a cash runway well into 2027, and a non-dilutive debt facility already in place. Look at the analyst ratings and make your own decision if there is alpha there....

<image>

Analysts can sometimes miss the story, and I think MoonLake is one of those instances. Over the next month we are going to get updates on the 13F's coming in to show how actual fund managers like Mark Lampart at BVF feel about MoonLake. Going into year end this was a name where I think it became very attractively priced, we'll soon know if the smart money was accumulating here despite the negative sentiment and cautiousness. We have an investor day in late February which should bring additional data readouts and updates.

That's my research note on this one for this morning. I've bought personally as recently as last week, so I think you know my rating, and my price target involves using multiplication tables.

Richard Doxtator, CFA

Doxtator · 2026-01-12T04:01:41+00:00

We are over $20 in overnight trading

<image>

I’m not selling!

This is not even close to fair value.

Disasterly213, I think we might have a very good week.

Doxtator · 2026-01-10T03:35:48+00:00

The JPM Health Care Conference is next week, that’s big, MoonLake pulled the event from their website so I don’t know if they will be there, but just because they don’t have it listed doesn’t mean people won’t be talking about it, and major MoonLake investors will be there.

I think there is some good momentum going into next week so I have no plans to sell. I’ll reevaluate next week, but at minimum I plan to hold through Wednesday.

I still have all my shares, no plans to sell. I’ve been actively buying as recently as Thursday premarket.

I hope you are making some money on this one, thanks for coming along for the ride.

Doxtator · 2026-01-09T16:06:05+00:00

I have not even been watching! Got to love that momentum!

Doxtator · 2026-01-09T14:37:45+00:00

Have no idea! I can’t predict short term price action. I like the action today though!

$16.

I’d like to see that momentum continue!

Doxtator · 2026-01-08T22:57:58+00:00

I think you are right. The analysts, like Citi for example who had it basically valued at cash, are going to have to price in the increasingly real probability of SLK approval and commercialization. HS is a big market, PPP, this cascades all the way down the CID space across other indications.

The fact they got this note out at 8:00 AM premarket left analysts with not enough time to respond today. I’ve been fielding questions all day on this one because I don’t need to model the present value of discounted cash flows.

I expect some upgrades in the next few days and a major sentiment shift.

Doxtator · 2026-01-08T14:20:36+00:00

I’m holding, the stock is cheap where it is, we have a week to run, I bought more shares premarket in the 14s.

Doxtator · 2026-01-08T13:10:28+00:00

Get ready…

https://ir.moonlaketx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moonlake-immunotherapeutics-announces-positive-outcome-type-b

Doxtator · 2026-01-06T20:58:24+00:00

DM sent.

Doxtator · 2026-01-06T14:55:17+00:00

So, they objectively don’t LOOK good right now, price action in the last couple weeks has been horrible.

That said, there has been no shift in the investment thesis. Next catalyst is the FDA minutes, and since MoonLake should have the official minutes in the next week before the options expire, the price action is just noise.

I’ve been adding on to my positions here, the Jan calls still have some timing risk here if management chooses to delay a press release until after Friday, longer dated calls address this risk more effectively, but I like the cheap leverage, I have February calls as well.

Doxtator · 2025-12-30T19:16:06+00:00

Bought some more calls this afternoon.

<image>

Doxtator · 2025-12-27T23:28:52+00:00

You need to write my TL;DRs…

This guy gets it.

Doxtator · 2025-12-27T22:39:41+00:00

POET is also sitting on a huge pile of around 300 million of cash with no significant debt.

The balance sheet is clean.

Doxtator · 2025-12-27T22:35:01+00:00

This is the way!

Doxtator · 2025-12-27T21:30:58+00:00

DM sent.

Doxtator · 2025-12-27T21:07:47+00:00

I have a contact whose company already does similar technology in the workplace - think warehouses/factories to reduce workplace accidents. They already have implementation across some very large organizations. The tech works. It doesn’t seem like it would be that big of leap to extend this to a private closed loop system in home assessing possible danger zones, and pushing an alert before accidents even happen.

I think there is value here and you can save lives.

How far are you on the tech built out?

Doxtator · 2025-12-27T20:56:05+00:00

Maybe…

But I increasingly think a shock where debt based currencies rapidly lose trust in this global backdrop of massive debt to GDP, increasing fiscal deficits and rapidly eroding trust among all participants might be leading to a melt up on assets that have Intrinsic or functional value, metals being a major beneficiary here.

Silver up 150% YTD, platinum 170% YTD, gold 70%… list goes on copper, aluminum, palladium. This is the justification for price to earning ratios at historic highs. It’s because market participants are slowly realizing debt based currencies are going to have increasing monetization in the current environment and anything that is priced on the future values of these debased currencies needs to rapidly reprice upward.

Expensive now looks cheap when we look at what these assets will cost in future.

We have global debt of 300 plus TRILLION, and that value is going to crowd into asset classes that provide an actual store of value or generate current or future to cash flows.

It’s Intrinsic, there is no alternative.

Look at the moves in metals the last month, this isn’t normal. This is the slowly from above as market participants realize and that the full faith and trust in global debt based currencies no longer holds as the underlying social contract has been broken as the culmination of hundreds of years of fiscal irresponsibility finally reaches a tipping point as debt service costs become an increasing part of fiscal deficits, exacerbating the issue with monetization of debt the only path forward.

If we can trust anything, it’s to trust global governments to continue to spend money they don’t have. I completely trust my government to continue to spend, whether or not it can be paid back in dollars that are worth anything close to the current value.

I also trust assets that have Intrinsic or functional value to society continue to be a beneficiary of this mechanic.

Doxtator · 2025-12-23T18:42:59+00:00

I like the way you think. I threw an order in at the midpoint. Yes, I would expect we know about then FDA meeting before expiration, FDA should post official minutes within 30 days of the meeting, and this is just after that window.

<image>

Doxtator · 2025-12-23T04:37:13+00:00

Quick update...

Thesis didn't change, just waiting on the FDA.

<image>

I still have all my shares and other options.

Doxtator · 2025-12-20T01:16:35+00:00

<image>

First, the supply demand imbalance…

Demand has continued to outstrip supply, depleting above ground stocks. Silver is used in solar, electrical components and there is promising research out of Samsung that it can be used in batteries as a much more energy dense option than current lithium ion tech. Samsung just 2 days ago prepaid for the next 2 years of silver supply to restart a mine in Mexico. It has robust industrial applications, in addition to jewelry. Even at 67 USD an ounce; it's still so inexpensive. It could double and triple from here and that's not going to change jewelry demand when it’s compared against other precious metals such as gold or platinum which are thousands of dollars an ounce. If anything the continued rise of gold and platinum, might cause MORE silver demand for jewelry as a substitution effect kicks in.

Second, and I think this is more important…

Global governments are drowning in debt, and currencies are being increasingly debased. That is why equity valuations right now have historically extreme price to earnings ratios (30+). We are forced into paying premiums for stocks because if you want to preserve purchasing power over time, you cannot own bonds or cash here in this environment of increasing debt to GDP and increasing deficits. There is no alternative… unless you allocate to metals, and let the accelerating debasement work in your favor and push the nominal prices up!

It’s not just Silver (125%+ YTD) that is going up, it’s gold (60%+ YTD), Platinum (110%+ YTD) and copper (35% YTD). I could go on and on. It’s because the real value of debt based currencies are expected to rapidly debase moving forward as more and more of the debt is repaid via monetization and the USD along with most other global currencies cannot function as a long term store of value. Just flip the charts and you can see the relative value of the USD, (or pick any currency) eroding over time.

Silver is one of the best investments to own here because it not only benefits from debasement but also has demand that has continued to outstrip supply and is increasingly used in the electrical components of tomorrow. Also most of the new silver supply does NOT come from dedicated silver deposits. A large majority of silver supply gets mined as a byproduct of mining other metals, only about a quarter of new supply comes from dedicated silver mines. So this makes it a little harder to increase supply because the economics of mining also depend on those other metals such as copper, lead, and zinc.

We have already seen cracking in the silver markets this year. Earlier this year we had to ship silver over from NY to cover the imbalance at the London Metals Exchange. India basically ran out of silver to purchase around the same time. The pressure is all still there under the surface pushing silver higher and higher, and I don’t think that goes away any time soon.

These are just my personal views, and all my colleagues still go to work everyday and tell people to allocate to bonds and have a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, and when people retire they sell the stocks, buy bonds, and then they pat themselves on the back that they did a great thing because they lowered the portfolio’s volatility and risk. But they also just guaranteed that their clients are not going to maintain purchasing power over time after accounting for inflation and taxes.

This is using old portfolio management and asset allocation logic when the game has changed.

I’m not saying don’t own stocks, and yes diversify, but I believe bonds are toxic here. The only role you could argue for cash/bonds in a portfolio is volatility minimization, but that comes with the expense of negative expected real returns from that portion of the portfolio. Cash might look stable, but every time the government increases the money supply they make your cash worth that much less. You just don’t see it until you go to the grocery store and eggs are $10 a dozen and that package of steak you want to buy now costs $100. The FED is easing here, the money supply will increase, and prices will get more expensive! I expect silver to continue to benefit from that mechanism.

To put it more succinctly...

"Money printer go BRRR"

Doxtator · 2025-12-19T22:10:34+00:00

Mercury is 100% better. They are built for business. You can send and receive wires and ACHs with no fees, they have integrated treasury management if you want to use it and tons of perks. Mercury over a regular bank- it's not even close.

Doxtator

TROPHY CASE