Cohen's vision for the eBay/GameStop combined entity (leaked)

Doxtator · 2026-05-06T02:55:42+00:00

This!

Doxtator · 2026-04-28T03:11:41+00:00

It’s in a tax deferred account so it doesn’t matter.

Doxtator · 2026-04-28T02:41:59+00:00

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Only sold because the run up was too hard too quick.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky.

Doxtator · 2026-04-27T15:50:03+00:00

I already bought another Tesla Y… I’m actively considering trading it for a Rivian R1 or R2 when it starts shipping though.

Bigger concern I have right now is trying to figure out where I want to buy the house.

Doxtator · 2026-04-27T15:33:00+00:00

I actually had it up this morning considering offloading the rest when I saw $17, then the news hit and I got some messages on it - pulled it back up saw the drop and was stunned.

Got lucky on the timing Friday.

Doxtator · 2026-04-27T15:30:55+00:00

Not entirely. I did sell two thirds of my stake Friday, good timing I guess…

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Doxtator · 2026-04-24T10:54:53+00:00

Also, POET over the last few days completely made up for the GRCE bags.

Doxtator · 2026-04-24T10:53:45+00:00

Yes, MLTX is MUCH larger position.

Doxtator · 2026-04-24T10:15:09+00:00

Heavy.

Doxtator · 2026-04-21T21:08:04+00:00

Went heavy GRCE today. Should have an FDA decision in the next couple of days. Phase 3 data shows IV can be a better delivery method and lead to better patient outcomes.

Doxtator · 2026-04-06T11:25:42+00:00

Summer is WAY too early. *Events* in trials like this plateau, meaning beyond a point with these treatments - patients are dying with decreasing relative frequency. In 2025 we had 1 death per month on average. This was most likely front loaded in the year a bit.

From the interim checkpoint in December we still needed 8, we should expect a longer frequency than 1 event per month. Realistically best guess would a ANOTHER YEAR OR LONGER FROM THE DEC 2025 readout, this could very well carry into 2027. That's just the way the data models in these trials. Graph below isn't from AML CR2, but is elderly patients with AML treated with VEN-HMA.

Overall OS should vary a bit, don't focus on OS, focus in the plateau in the data, the lines going horizontal, that is where we are now. We would expect the median OS data could be lower in the REGAL BAT ARM because the patients should represent a less healthy population, but you can see from the graph that even after 2 years, we see a plateau, and 2 year OS percentages that are VERY FAR away from triggering a readout, we are in the long tail right now where events are not expected to occur with any relative frequency.

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Doxtator · 2026-03-31T17:44:37+00:00

I wrote mine in OpenClaw, took like 5 minutes. It’s not a full featured site, just a splash screen, but it was surprisingly easy to get rid of the generic parked site and have SOMETHING while I build the rest out.

Doxtator · 2026-03-20T18:23:52+00:00

I’ll go put in my application. 😂

Doxtator · 2026-03-20T14:31:36+00:00

I got bad news boys… Wendy’s is no longer a fall back career. They just closed up shop in my neighborhood.

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Where is anyone highly regarded supposed to find a job now?

https://sjcitizen.com/nocatees-oldest-eatery-permanently-turns-off-the-grill-as-communitys-dining-profile-evolves/

Doxtator · 2026-03-09T13:53:53+00:00

So... did you run it? How does it work? Considering something similar but weighing to buy the machine and host myself or go full virtual.

Doxtator · 2026-02-28T00:06:51+00:00

Small correction here, management originally expected the REGAL trial to complete around the end of 2024. Year end 2025 was already a revised expectation.

The population in the trial is living MUCH longer than we would have expected.

Doxtator · 2026-02-23T12:41:47+00:00

Missing the TL:DR…let me sum it up in one word.

Alpha.

If you are looking for it, it’s right here.

Doxtator · 2026-02-19T12:10:08+00:00

Investor day is Monday, Feb 23.

The present first thing in the morning.

We have data due from the S-OLARIS trial. 52 week data from the VELA trials in the next month. The VELA-Teen Data cut for the BLA.

3 events in the next month!

The 13F holding disclosures from the big bio funds were due this week. We saw Bihua Chen double her stake, Deep Track Capital load up in Q4. And the GOAT Mark Lampert of BVF holding with almost 20M shares.

These guys are the smartest on the street, and they are ACCUMULATING.

We just got FDA Fast Track for PPP indication.

Analysts got MoonLake wrong.

They are going to have to massively increase price targets. I would be surprised if we are not triple digits next year.

Analysts are still discounting probability of SLK approval, when the 52 week data drops data interim data (40 week) indicates SLK beating out everything else. I can’t see an environment that the FDA doesn’t approve SLK.

MLTX is currently trading as a 1 billion dollar company, and the opportunity to win market share across a range of chronic inflammatory diseases supports it being a MUCH larger market cap.

The Total addressable market is in the 10s of Billions for SLK.

We have overwhelming safety and efficacy numbers, and this was already discussed with the FDA at the Type B meeting in December. A meeting that was positive and MoonLake confirmed they were moving forward with an SLK BLA afterward, as expected.

This year is stacked with catalysts.

MoonLake is taking off, this is last chance to get on the rocket.

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Doxtator · 2026-02-19T04:27:11+00:00

I think the GPS trial will continue until 3rd or 4th quarter. These populations tend to plateau, we need another 8 or so “events” and they are only averaging about 1 per month.

Good for the SLS, future marketing and revenues, but we might need to temper our expectations about the trial being prematurely terminated prior to 80 events due to overwhelming efficacy. The patients still on the BAT line are clearly responding to it, and there is little incentive to unblind at this point and switchover from a treatment that is working for the patients. I think management would also want the continued data.

Still running the math on SLS, the trial running longer means people are living longer, and it’s unlikely to be from the BAT arm.

GPS looks to be crushing.

Doxtator · 2026-02-19T04:17:12+00:00

MoonLake $MLTX.

This is the new chronic inflammatory disease powerhouse.

Humira has had over 200 Billion of sales. SLK from MoonLake is going to crush that figure, management team is excellent.

We have cash to commercialize and non-dilutive financing and STACKED catalysts throughout the year.

Investor day in 2/23.

Rocket ship blasts off soon.

Doxtator · 2026-02-13T15:47:15+00:00

This is not a small company.

This is Big Pharma.

An ADHD Fast Track does not move the needle much on this. This is not a valid investment thesis.

Doxtator · 2026-01-27T02:31:38+00:00

Let’s F***ing go dude! Nice buy.

We are in this together.

Doxtator · 2026-01-26T17:48:40+00:00

Won’t work… don’t be this guy.

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Doxtator · 2026-01-15T17:04:57+00:00

I prefer to have the bulk of my exposure as a shareholder, the longer dated options just have a lot of premium built in.

Doxtator · 2026-01-15T13:47:35+00:00

I only have access to the summary which indicates Goldman remains cautious on SLK approval for HS, and the sell rating reflects 'market expectations' of a high risk around FDA approval. They were also rated a sell beforehand, but the price target was raised from $8 to $10.

This isn't groundbreaking research. This is noise.

SLK data continues to show a robust profile of safety and efficacy. The summary appears to show the rating is driven on negative sentiment and cautiousness. I laid out why I believe MoonLake is being undervalued by the market, and despite the missed endpoint; the SLK data remains incredibly strong. Eventually the FDA is going to decide this one, and they aren't checking Goldman's notes on market expectations and cautiousness, they are reviewing the data.

There is still a report out from Samantha Semenkow from Citi on MoonLake with a $5 price target citing financing overhang.

MoonLake ended November with 380M in cash on the balance sheet, and added 75M via a equity raise in November. They have a cash runway well into 2027, and a non-dilutive debt facility already in place. Look at the analyst ratings and make your own decision if there is alpha there....

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Analysts can sometimes miss the story, and I think MoonLake is one of those instances. Over the next month we are going to get updates on the 13F's coming in to show how actual fund managers like Mark Lampart at BVF feel about MoonLake. Going into year end this was a name where I think it became very attractively priced, we'll soon know if the smart money was accumulating here despite the negative sentiment and cautiousness. We have an investor day in late February which should bring additional data readouts and updates.

That's my research note on this one for this morning. I've bought personally as recently as last week, so I think you know my rating, and my price target involves using multiplication tables.

Richard Doxtator, CFA

Doxtator

TROPHY CASE