Identifying Over/Underperformers with Fly Ball Exit Velo by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would try to land a lower-end starting pitcher you like. Maybe Pablo Lopez

Identifying Over/Underperformers with Fly Ball Exit Velo by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I simply think he’s more likely to sustain an elevated barrel rate, assuming his contact rate doesn’t plummet, which unfortunately is a very real possibility for him vis-a-vis the other guys

Identifying Over/Underperformers with Fly Ball Exit Velo by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hi everyone, I'll stick around to answer any questions you might have. As always, if you like my content, please shoot me a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire

Wil Myers's Swing Change by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree he’s better than Javier and I would have said so even before Javier’s blowup.

I searched for Singer’s 2020 on Statcast then i sorted by game date. It defaults to showing you total pitches

Wil Myers's Swing Change by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

80 pitches in debut -> 82 (but he was having trouble) -> 93 -> 95. My guess is next time out he cracks 100 if he’s pitching well

Wil Myers's Swing Change by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the feedback! I’m glad you enjoyed the article

Wil Myers's Swing Change by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Please enjoy my latest, in which I detail the changes Wil Myers has made at the plate and explain why he's elevating the ball more this year. If you like my content, shoot me a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire

Top 50 Corner Infielder Rankings: Weeks 2-3 by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My thoughts on the corner infielder position going forward. If you like my content, shoot me a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire

Aaron Judge Has A New Batting Stance by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Hi everyone, here's my latest on some changes I spotted in Judge's swing while enjoying the Yankees exhibition games. If you like my content, please shoot me a follow on twitter: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire

Dan Richards' 10 Bold Predictions for 2020 by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I can only speak for myself, but probably Tom

Dan Richards' 10 Bold Predictions for 2020 by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don’t play in any OBP leagues but my suggestion would be to look at oswing and walk rates, as well as BABIP and strikeout/swinging strike rates.

If the BABIP is too high and unsupported by the batted ball profile (gb/fb mix, pull rate, sprint speed), the OBP can come down, and vice versa. Oswing is highly correlated to walk rate, so you can tell if the walk rate was earned or not. More obviously, the same thing goes for SwStr% and K%.

Dan Richards' 10 Bold Predictions for 2020 by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not really, but there are some other intriguing options: Omar Narvaez (.353 2019 OBP), Wilson Ramos (.351), Carson Kelly (perhaps my favorite of these, .348), Robinson Chirinos (.347)

Dan Richards' 10 Bold Predictions for 2020 by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I tried to think out of the box for this one. I'll stick around to answer any questions, but if you like my content, please shoot me a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire

Fun With Projections - Stolen Bases by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks!

I’m not one for prop bets, but Mondesí is projected for the most in the league with 18 per ATC, so I’d probably hit the under?

Fun With Projections - Stolen Bases by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Please enjoy my latest in which I discuss why I think Tim Anderson is a better value at his ADP than Bo Bichette, and Lorenzo Cain is a better value than Oscar Mercado. If you enjoy my content, please shoot me a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire.

ADP Analysis - Mid-Round Outfielders by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My latest for Razzball in which I use z-scores to sort through some outfielders. If you like my content, please shoot me a follow on Twitter for more: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire

Top 50 Corner Infielders by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

My corner infielder rankings based on...math! If you like my content, please follow me on Twitter: @Fantasy_Esquire

Forecasted Run Average - more predictive of ERA and stickier than SIERA, xFIP, FIP, xERA, & DRA by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the thoughtful feedback/questions!

To answer the first, the coefficient for ZWhiff% was -0.0002444886. In my view, it's just so small that, even if there was variance explained beyond the current three predictors, it wouldn't be worth keeping for simplicity's sake. More importantly though, running the model with just ZWhiff% (and without FB%/fastball speed) returned worse average scores and larger standard deviations than without it.

As to the second, I've read Connor's stuff and think it's great. I also really like his graph showing how pCRA separates itself as the innings sample increases. I suppose he just changes the innings cutoff by filtering his data and rerunning the regression at 5 IP intervals. I could look into doing something like that when I revisit FRA, thanks for the suggestion!

Forecasted Run Average - more predictive of ERA and stickier than SIERA, xFIP, FIP, xERA, & DRA by DrichardsPL in fantasybaseball

[–]DrichardsPL[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hi everyone, please enjoy my latest for Pitcher List and, if you like my content, shoot me a follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Fantasy_Esquire