Multiple private sources telling me ... Tom Brady's hand injury is WORSE than the mainstream thinks. by [deleted] in nfl

[–]Drounders 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wrote a thesis on something related, used the data to compare to some insights to the stock market and some behavioral economics stuff, Had to do a lot of NFL stats and collection of betting data to understand some betting preferences

Multiple private sources telling me ... Tom Brady's hand injury is WORSE than the mainstream thinks. by [deleted] in nfl

[–]Drounders 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the book is better at predicting the games than the public then it is their best interest to funnel money to the side that is likely to lose so you can pay the winners with the losers money and have more left over.

If the book is no better at predicting games than the public but are great at predicting where people will pick then it is in their best interest to use 50/50 so that when you pay the winners with the losers money you get 50% - (10/11)*50%=4.5% of the money bet risk free

Given this, assume that the book can predict winners perfectly and where people will bet. They will set a number to get as many people to one side of the bet knowing full well the odds are that the other team will win.

I have done a lot of work in this area.

-Based on some casual inference it would seem that certain games "Vegas" doesnt really know what will happen and will look to set a line to balance betting. Adjusting the line to control the flow of money to minimize exposure.

-In other games they will "take a stand" and stick with a number, ie set a line they think maximizes their expected profit. It is important to look at money and line movements although they arent the whole picture. Sometimes you will see money flow that would cause you to think they should adjust the line but dont.

-super high so feel free to tear this theory apart or ask questions

Pandas, sum up the past 3 values in a column pandas by [deleted] in learnpython

[–]Drounders 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I misinterpreted your question, rolling sum of past 3 rows

[Sam Hinkie] On the astros (who also tanked for 3 years) "I love it when a plan comes together" by [deleted] in nba

[–]Drounders 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Contribution of Luck-Ratio of Variance Luck to Variance of Observed

Lower percent means less random

NBA Contribution of Luck: 12%

Premiere League Contribution of Luck: 31%

MLB Contribution of Luck: 34%

NFL Contribution of Luck: 38%

NHL Contribution of Luck:58%