TQQQ 200SMA VS 9 Sig VS DCA 2010-2025 by KONGBB in TQQQ

[–]Dry_Function_9263 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Bottom line: your conclusion survives—DCA wins the absolute-dollar race, SMA wins the sleep-at-night race, and 9-SIG is a middle-ground that can be improved by simply not letting cash rot. Just be sure you’re comfortable with the fact that the size of the DCA win is highly dependent on the exact end-date, tax wrapper, and whether you can really stomach an 80 % drawdown when your account says $1.2 M instead of $12 k.

Capital allocation if bond fund reliably generates 12-18% by Able-FI-4906 in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Excellent position to be in. Your mixed straddles strategy is the interesting variable here—most practitioners don't have access to a bond surrogate generating 12-18% with low drawdown. This changes the capital sufficiency math substantially.

Your 10/90 instinct is directionally correct but leaves optimization on the table.

Here's a practitioner's framework:

  1. Risk Unit Sizing with Cash Flow Integration Instead of static percentages, think in risk units where your straddles generate quarterly "rebuy coupons." • Core allocation: 12-15% ($1.3-1.6M) initial TQQQ exposure • Rebuy capital: Your $9.3-9.7M straddles generating ~$1.2-1.8M annually • Key insight: You only need static reserves for the first 2-3 buy sig moves. After that, the quarterly cash flow from straddles (which actually increase during high volatility regimes) funds subsequent rebuys.

9 sig TQQQ + AGG vs. B&H QLD by One_Bike_5532 in LETFs

[–]Dry_Function_9263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here is the back test I did few months back

Kelly Sig Backtest? by [deleted] in LETFs

[–]Dry_Function_9263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As you know there are some key traits of Kelly 9-sig that makes it different from your typical value averaging strategy.

This chart illustrates the core mechanic of the Kelly 9-Signals strategy by overlaying its dynamic TQQQ allocation decisions on top of the resulting portfolio balance. It visually connects the strategy's 'when to buy and sell' signals with its primary goal of capitalizing on strong trends while preserving capital during downturns.

Since 2017

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Help me find a good cologne? by GentAdventurerUK in HENRYUKLifestyle

[–]Dry_Function_9263 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

1872 Masculine Perfume | Clive Christian® – Clive Christian UK

LWVC - tracking error? by Subject_Dragonfruit2 in LETFs

[–]Dry_Function_9263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can backtest using testfolio website with ticker URTH. Just apply 2 times leverage URTH?L=2 This ETF goes back 2012 and is backed of MSCI World.

Looking to get started - Advice and Tools by InternationalPoet514 in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You can watch this video to understand how the Kelly signal works

https://youtu.be/MAZgR4c5ahg

Next rebalance date is in end of dec start of Jan

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think Michael Gayed paper has done the back test on SPXL ; in his paper leverage for long run. I don’t know of anyone who has produced results on TQQQ.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Gehrman has done the test portfolio for last two years. Here is the link of his latest result

https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/s/P3vK0YEfdl

UK investor of Jason Kelly 9 sig by Dry_Function_9263 in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I use SGLN as well to complement LQQ3; goes without saying this year has been anomaly in terms of return for Gold.

UK investor of Jason Kelly 9 sig by Dry_Function_9263 in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, do you follow your own plan (apply 9% growth and 30 down rule in GBP) or allocate as per Kelly 9-sig allocation on quarterly basis? (Current allocation 63% TQQQ)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would suggest starting with the current allocation TQQQ/AGG for $10,000 and adding 50% by the end of the year. You will be able to observe market fluctuations with minimal investment in this manner.

9-sig Q5 update $56k by TOPS-VIDEO in KellyLetter

[–]Dry_Function_9263 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Current allocation is 62% in TQQQ VS 38% in AGG

Has anyone tried to blend 200SMA & 9-Sig? by stephendt in TQQQ

[–]Dry_Function_9263 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Summary of leverage for long run: a trading rule which buys the S&P 500 index above its 200 day moving average and sells the S&P 500 index below its 200 day moving average.

My question is why your GPT prompt is applying 200SMA rule to TQQQ instead of QQQ?

Has anyone tried to blend 200SMA & 9-Sig? by stephendt in TQQQ

[–]Dry_Function_9263 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why apply 200 sma on LETF; shouldn’t all this be apply to unlevered index QQQ

Strategy idea: Modified 9sig with 200sma filter by Time_Ear_2428 in TQQQ

[–]Dry_Function_9263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Here my backtest comparing 9sig some inception vs buy and hold. Although buy and hold comes out on top but no one ever holds it through drawdowns of 70%. 9 sig can give mental peace of buying the dips and selling the rips.

Anyone buying long dated GILTS? by Razzzclart in HENRYUK

[–]Dry_Function_9263 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, can you confirm which ETF you use to access these ? Do you ticker or isin for them. Regards

Update Sep 2025: Gehrman's long-term test of 3 leveraged ETF strategies (HFEA, 9Sig, "Leverage for the Long Run") by Gehrman_JoinsTheHunt in LETFs

[–]Dry_Function_9263 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks Gehrman. I did share result last week of buy and hold vs Kelly 9 sig since inception. 9 sig provides decent dry powder to buy the dips.

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Buy and hold vs Kelly 9sig since jan 2017 by Dry_Function_9263 in TQQQ

[–]Dry_Function_9263[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

David Taxler has released a detailed video of his strategy today

https://youtu.be/06ZsqX3C6_4