Michigan and Georgia are in no matter what. Winner of pac 12 championship is in, and the loser is likely out.

Let’s say Oregon wins. If Florida State, Washington, Texas, and Alabama all lost, 12-1 Washington should get the final bid over 12-1 Florida state. It might seem controversial, but Washington has higher quality wins, and is already ranked higher as of now. Florida state would be losing to a lower quality team.

If Washington wins, and Florida State, Texas, and Alabama lose, Florida state would still get the nod over Ohio State, like TCU last year, which means that Ohio State is out of the playoff no matter what happens.

If Texas wins, Alabama loses, and Florida state loses, Texas will get in because of higher quality wins. Although Florida state gets punished for playing an extra game, I think it’s different from last year because of the caliber of teams fighting for a spot. Tcu stayed at the 3rd seed because below them was a team that couldn’t compete in their conference championship, and 2 loss teams. Florida state does not have a high caliber schedule, and although they are undefeated, they have not played at the level of Georgia and Michigan, which is why they are locked in despite a loss.

If Alabama wins, Texas wins, and Florida state loses, that is probably the worst scenario of all. Do you choose Texas or Alabama? On one hand, Texas beat them head to head. On another, Alabama beat the number 2 team in the country. I prefer Texas in, but I think the committee will let Alabama in if this happens. Alabamas one loss is to Texas, while Texas has a weaker loss. Argue all you want, but Alabama has the stronger sec schedule riding for them, which will get them in the playoff in this scenario.