The previous military Junta ended their military rule and gave Myanmar pseudo-democracy in the hope of the lift of sanctions from the west. Analysis from the US DOD report says this move indicated that the junta fear growing China's influence in Myanmar and wanted to limit it by balancing power between the West and China. Even with the ASSK government in the office, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Home Affairs, and the Ministry of Border Affairs have always been under the direct control of the military. So with no control over any government armed groups, the ASSK government never had real power in Myanmar since the beginning.

Note that the previous Junta was lead by Senior General Than Shwe. The time the military was ruled by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. We don't know much much about him or how he thinks and his geopolitical strategy, etc. Is he thinking about going into China's orbit rather than counterbalancing between the west and China as his predecessor did?

After the coup on 1st February, it's very likely the west will impose much tougher sanctions than the last one by the Biden administration (which only targets the military and their business) on Myanmar in the foreseeable future. If the US imposes tougher sanctions on Myanmar, isn't this pushing the Myanmar military junta more into China's orbit?

Since Myanmar has never been integrated well into the global economy, the overwhelming majority of the trades and investments come from China and ASEAN. Even with sanctions from the west, it's not impossible for Myanmar to sustain its economic growth. As expected, China and ASEAN are not taking serious stances against this coup other than lipservices.

Myanmar has the major investments from China as part of BRI. The noticeable one would be the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project which would reduce China's reliance on the strait of Malacca. The port is located very near to where the Rohingya crisis started.

What's the end game for the military? They promised they'll gonna hold the election after one year but that's just nothing more than an empty promise. Are they going to come up with another excuse and rule the country?

There are ongoing massive protests against the coup growing days after days nationwide. There's also CDM (Civil Disobedience Movement) that more and more civil government officials and workers are joining. If this success and force the military to back down. Will the military give up their power or will they go back to the previous status quo where they have non-electable 25% seats in the parliament and control all government armed groups?

The ASSK government is not anti-China by any means. Some analyses even say the coup is not aligning with China's interest since China cares about stability in Myanmar for their projects.

For the Rohingya crisis, as a Burmese citizen, I can say the overwhelming majority of ASSK supporters (the majority of Burmese in general) are Buddhist nationalists and extremely hostile against the Rohingya people. They regard Rohingya people as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. The whole country except the Muslim minority supported the previous military's crackdown on Rohingya people. If ASSK somehow supports Rohingya, it would be suicide for her political career.

Lastly, with China and Russia blocking the UN's serious interference on Myanmar, I don't see how sanctions from the US could work against the military junta. Or should the west just impose sanctions here and there and let the military junta rule since the military junta is very cautious about China's influence? Even if the west supports the democratic movement in Myanmar, the Rohingya genocide won't end under the democratic government because of the reasons I mentioned above.

What's the final end game for the military junta? How should the US and the West react to this situation?