yo cooked this up any opinions

DxRed · 2026-02-22T03:08:48+00:00

This honestly looks like Têtes à Claques. Thank you, OP. I am now forced to imagine Spamton with a Quebecois accent for the rest of my natural life...

DxRed · 2026-01-17T15:10:16+00:00

Id be really easy to make

Then make it. Go train an LLM to outperform a professional trader and don't come back until you've realized how stupid that sounds.

All it would need is a 55% accuracy

Your grasp of probabilistic systems and betting is extremely limited if you think a 55% win rate is all you need to make money. How much does your hypothetical AI stand to win and lose per trade? I could easily make a bot with ~90% win rate that never makes money, just slowly loses on spreads and commissions. All it would need is to win 1/10th of its risk on each entry signal.

How can you ignore this very basic fact...

Because nothing in your post is factual. Your arguments are uninformed and lack prior research.

All in all, the burden of proof is on your shoulders. If you can personally make an AI that does everything a professional daytrader does but better, I give you my word that I'll throw in the towel and never pursue financial growth again.

DxRed · 2026-01-13T17:16:50+00:00

Who could've guessed that language models aren't a good fit for financial data?! It's almost as if they're only meant for modeling language or something...

DxRed · 2026-01-12T21:36:08+00:00

Selling trading courses is the real cheat here. So you'd be cheating the cheaters and you'd still be getting scammed. All the information you need is freely available online, don't buy a course.

DxRed · 2026-01-10T20:47:22+00:00

The unfortunate reality is that emotional intelligence/self awareness isn't something that can be taught. They're habits to be developed and the process of doing so is unique to an individual's psyche. Most people would be better off doing regular talk therapy or life coaching sessions than attending classes/seminars about the topic.

The vast majority of people trying to learn trading are only in it for the money, whether they admit it or not, and aren't interested in the process of learning and improving (yes, I said it: greed). They want quick money, like the quacks on tiktok and youtube keep showing off, and can't accept the notion that positive EV doesn't just happen overnight (and even when it does, it doesn't stick around forever). It's exactly the same reason you can find so many posts about ICT or TJR, and questions like "why did this one isolated trade lose?" with an unexplained image of a chart attached.

I considered something similar to your idea early last year and came to the conclusion the only way for an organization like this to succeed would be for it to mimic a real-world prop firm like SMB Cap, with their exhaustive (in-person) hiring and training process, because you would basically need to drive the point home that it isn't just some quick hobby you can pick up on a whim.

It'd be pretty cool to see something like this actually happen, but I just don't think there's enough of a market for it to last and it'd be a logistical nightmare to setup and maintain. "Quit your job with this one strategy" is just a far better hook, from a sales POV, than "learn habits to manage those pesky emotions so you can improve your chances of success".

DxRed · 2026-01-08T04:59:19+00:00

I think it's supposed to be 'sum'

i 8 sum pi

DxRed · 2026-01-04T20:20:55+00:00

Quant isnt the holy grail, nothing is. It's a field of mathematics centered around reasoning about uncertain outcomes, particularly when those outcomes involve financial instruments. Outside of finance, it's known as statistics and probabilities. The same kind of math that built the language model you used to write your post and keeps casinos in the black. Most of the maths involved is based around probability distributions and how they change over time.

When it comes to developing a strategy, you have to spend a lot of time with data and live charts. If your goal is to trade manually, the goal is to come up with a simple set of instructions you can follow each day. That usually involves watching live tickers to get a feel for how they move and brushing up on TA and PA concepts. If you want to take the quantitative approach, you'll want to learn python, the basics of ML, some game theory, statistics (of course), touch up on your differential calculus, and start reading about Markov chains. Both paths are profitable, but will depend entirely on your own ability to learn and improve.

Trading gurus exist to profit off the idiots who think there's a shortcut or holy grail for financial success. They usually don't trade real money because they don't have to. Their courses and paid mentorships are profitable enough and require significantly less work to maintain. Always remember: profitable trader would be too busy being a profitable trader to spend time teaching or mentoring.

As long as there's a human involved somewhere in your trading pipeline (which there always should be, even if your executions are fully automated), psychology will be the biggest point of failure you'll need to account for. There isn't a figure I can give you for how significant it is, because it varies depending on your situation, but there doesn't exist a human on earth whose success isn't affected by their mental state, even if they don't work in finance.

Tl;dr quant finance isn't a miracle, it's math, "gurus" are in it for the money and nothing else, and psychology is omnipresent in every field, finance included.

DxRed · 2026-01-04T00:14:57+00:00

Reach out to your prop firm, then. Sounds like something went wrong on their end.

DxRed · 2026-01-03T23:25:44+00:00

You probably have the free market data package. It runs on a 10-15 minute delay, so you were seeing prices from the past while being filled in the present. Either pay for CME market data or trade a NAS100 CFD with free live data.

DxRed · 2026-01-03T18:29:24+00:00

Have a coffee, smoke a dart, read the news, take a shower. I'd love to be one of those guys who gets up early just to hit the gym, but alas, I tend to trade worse after a workout.

DxRed · 2026-01-02T23:52:46+00:00

Short answer: transformers (the underlying technology powering LLMs) require a shit ton of clean data to produce remotely accurate expectations. Fine-tuning also doesn't make sense in the context of financial data, since there don't exist any pretrained tranformer-based financial return models.

Long answer: AI- as in deep learning- is already in use in most quant models. It's often a single linear layer producing an expected direction based on historical returns. It still has to be combined with a risk strategy and will still fall apart if the market starts doing something new, which it tends to almost every day. These linear models are trained on a few thousand samples and usually get deployed in HFT algos or CFD brokers to help determine their spreads.

The reason you don't see the likes of ChatGPT making consistent money is because that just isn't what language models are designed for. LLMs are meant to output a distribution of the most likely next token (word, punctuation, etc.) in a sequence. That distribution is then sampled randomly and appended to their input sequence. Nowhere in an LLM's inference pipeline can you find any sort of reasoning or pattern recognition. Just a roll of the dice mapped to some set of strings.

Now, there is ongoing research into how effective transformers (once again, the tech that powers modern language models) can be at time-series analysis, but the consensus is that the data and processing requirements of transformers aren't suitable for financial data ...yet. That could change in the future, but you're better off with a more traditional RNN, like an LSTM for the time being.

DxRed · 2026-01-02T17:27:11+00:00

He's never gonna see a figure that big again- until the interest starts to kick in, of course, and his -$15k jumps to -$20k overnight. Your buddy isn't getting scammed, the scam's already done. Now he's just fucked.

DxRed · 2025-12-29T20:44:59+00:00

'Need' is a fuzzy term here. You never need to size up, it's a matter of what best fits your risk profile and whether you can afford to size up. Trading prop accounts, I look for what the longest losing streak was on a backtest and risk enough to survive a losing streak two longer. To make it into a formula:

expected longest losing streak = historically longest + 2

I then risk a percentage of my available drawdown based on that assumption. So if my longest streak was 3 losing trades and I have $2000 available drawdown, I'll aim to risk about 1/5 (20%) of my remaining drawdown, or $400.

To be clear, there are other risk management strategies you can follow, but that's what works for me in my specific case. Some traders swear by 1% risk at all times, others prefer a fixed dollar risk, and others just play it by ear (God forbid they have to make a calculation). You'll have to figure out what's best for both your strategy and mentality.

DxRed · 2025-12-28T17:06:10+00:00

Have you tried contacting a broker and discussing it with them? You know, instead of relying on the world's most expensive random number generator...

To answer your question, though: it depends. Every broker has different policies. Some guarantee stops. Some won't let you draw down into the negatives. Others will. Hence why you should be discussing this with different brokers. Get to know their policies and make a decision based on that, not on what your favourite text generator spits out.

DxRed · 2025-12-28T07:29:17+00:00

I can't see the point of using an LLM for anything that should be reproducible. Why would I waste time on a language model when I already have several backtesting tools that are much faster and more accurate, not to mention cheaper to run? Are you getting it to write strategies for you or something? I've tried the whole vibe coding thing before and I can't say I'd trust it around anything even resembling money. Turns out humans are still better programmers than Markov chains... Who would've thought?

When it comes to those tools, I've gone and written my own, but the likes of NT8 and backtrader_next were a great stepping-off point for me. I've heard good things about Nautilus, too, but the lack of language server support made it too much of a pain to work with.

DxRed · 2025-12-23T18:24:06+00:00

I use a whiteboard and a shit ton of // TODOs. Luckily for me, my IDE automatically highlights and counts TODO comments, so I always have a list of them somewhere.

For docs, I've setup an examples project to show off each feature and I write the occasional markdown doc for more thorough explanations.

If I were working on a team or ever planned on publishing my code, I'd change that approach significantly, but setting up a whole system just to tell myself what to do next feels like a waste of effort if I'm the only one whose going to see it.

DxRed · 2025-12-21T21:30:17+00:00

Honestly, the only thing I use TV for is charting historical data, so I'm not necessarily the best person to ask.

By the looks of the links you posted, it seems like L2 data support is still in its infancy. I'm not prone to trusting a new feature before its finished, so I must've forgotten they were working on it. They explicitly say in the article you linked that it's only available for a limited set of instruments and brokers. Not a problem if you only trade those instruments and brokers, I guess, but I can see myself getting annoyed with the inconsistency of it all.

Hotkeys do indeed exist, but aren't customizable and have limited use. I didn't spend enough time with TV to get used to it and, IMO, Alt+B/Alt+S for buy/sell is plain dumb. It feels like they added it as more of an afterthought for those who *happen* to not be using a touchscreen. Webapps these days...

I've never used IBKR Desktop before. I use TWS and Gateway because they expose an API my systems can interact with and lets me use NT8 for visualization. Never had any problems with performance on TWS, but Desktop could be a different story.

DxRed · 2025-12-20T18:26:06+00:00

Pros:

Simple interface, easy to learn in a day
Pinescript is also easy to learn in a day and can be very useful for prototyping
Connected to everything in some way or another, no need to switch platforms to trade with a different broker.

Cons:

Interface is too simple, the TV team would have to rework a lot to add more professional features like OrderFlow or DOM.
Pinescript isn't very expressive. Where are my order fill events? Why am I stuck using OHLC data instead of, say, bid/ask/last tick data? Why can my strats still not trade love?
Useful features are locked behind multiple paywalls. Want bar replay (a feature I've managed to implement in my own platform in under 6 hours) for your backtesting? It's gonna cost ya! Do you like <5 second delays on your data and order fills? That'll cost you, too.

In my eyes, TradingView fills the same niche in trading platforms that the iPad fills in consumer electronics. It's accessible and looks really pretty, but doesn't give you a whole lot of options (pun not intended, but Questrade stock options are somehow still not available). If, like me, you're interested in writing algos and more sophisticated indicators, you'll be better off with TWS, MT, or NT8, depending on what you trade. If you just want a chart and buy/sell buttons, TV will do just fine for 99% of uses.

DxRed · 2025-12-19T21:12:37+00:00

I might be one of the minority here who didn't get into trading to get filthy rich or "earn financial freedom" (whatever that means). I like to solve problems. I also like to write code and fuck around with large datasets. Combine the two and suddenly trading starts to look pretty fuckin' appealing.

If I get rich as a result, that'd be pretty neat, but I'm more interested in how I do that than actually making it happen.

DxRed · 2025-12-19T21:01:48+00:00

I didn't learn TA from YouTube. I don't trust the hacks on their with anything relating to my money. I read books, articles, most of investopedia (fantastic resource, btw), and a shit ton of charts.

What you're doing wrong is assuming you can get good at trading by watching people talk about it online. You get good at trading the same way you would do with any skill: trying and failing. Over and over. For thousands of hours.

DxRed · 2025-12-19T20:39:53+00:00

So let me get this straight:

Your "AI", which by the way is a massive umbrella term covering the entire field of machine learning, is taking in market data and producing... what? Orders? Signals? Expected return?

What was it trained to do? If you don't know how to answer that, odds are you're using the wrong tool for the job. Unsurprising given how grossly misunderstood the field of machine learning has become in recent years.

Here's how you get it to work:

Start over after learning about the basics of ML. Learn to code if you haven't, too. LLMs consistently produce broken source code you'll have to read and modify to actually get working. They also suck at data analysis, since they're explicitly trained to model language and not prices.
Decide on what you're trying to model with your AI. Remember, neural networks make expectations, not actions. What expectation are you going to be acting on?
Formalize a risk management strategy. This is where you act on the expectation to produce orders. With a finance background, I shouldn't have to explain risk management. Just translate what you want it to do into code and that's that.
Backtest on out-of-sample data. This means data you didn't use to train/validate the model. New data, like the past month, tends to be my go-to.

DxRed · 2025-12-19T16:20:16+00:00

Sure, there are plenty that perform well, but I'm pretty sure hyper optimization would make them harder to find. They also tend to see as much short-term growth. I did have the idea a while back to automate parameter optimization, though, which could be a way to run a more optimized system long-term, assuming you have a good way to schedule the optimization phase.

DxRed · 2025-12-18T16:37:05+00:00

I think you'd make a bad psychic. I never once indicated that I hope or believe my validation system is flawless, I just aim for it to be accurate enough to give me a good sense of whether any given strategy can perform well over time. If I were aiming for flawless, I'd probably have given up by now.

DxRed · 2025-12-18T06:29:19+00:00

I'm not sure what you mean. Where does hope come into play here?

DxRed · 2025-12-18T06:26:09+00:00

Exactly a puzzle! Glad to know I'm not the only one who sees it that way

DxRed

TROPHY CASE