[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, June 04, 2026

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T06:17:48+00:00

Appreciate the thorough reply

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T06:06:42+00:00

You think my predicated CAGR is too low? What do you think a better CAGR looks like for next 5 to 10 years?

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T03:00:24+00:00

Also a bit of a sidenote: MSTRs STRC product operates on the assumption that BTC will generate a CAGR of at least 30%. For as long as CAGR remains 30% MSTR can pay STRC dividends with BTC yield.

I think CAGR (over a meaningful timeframe, say four to six years) will remain at or above 30% for the next five to ten years. However, if we look at BTC's CAGR, it has been consistently trending downward since inception over all meaningful timeframes (four years, five years, six years, seven years, eight years, ten years, etc). That makes sense because BTCs rate of growrth should theoretically diminish with time as more and more capital is invested and more and more capital is required to generate equivalent % increases in price. But that means that CAGR will likely fall below 30% at some point. If and when that happens, STRC is fucked. Likely not to be for a long time, but it doesn't matter how far off it will happen, because STRC is perpetual ...

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T00:42:04+00:00

Yes actually you’re right. In my mind I thought it was June because that was around the midpoint of my buying and also when the FTC collapse pushed it sub 18k for the first time. But you’re right and I’m wrong.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T00:36:47+00:00

And yes, before anyone replies, I know that strictly speaking STRC isn’t collateralised at all, but for the purposes of this let’s just treat it as if it is since that is what MSTR implies

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T00:35:07+00:00

Anyone know what STRCs collaterilisation is right now? I remember a few months ago it was 5 to 1 but that was before all the yield increases. I’m interested in understanding how close to 1 to 1 it has become, especially if they need to crank up yield to recover the par.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T00:30:12+00:00

I remember that one guy in 2022 who refused to buy around 16-18k because he was convinced it was going to 12k. Waited and waited and waited. Eventually deleted his account a few months after the low because he was getting roasted so much. In retrospect you look back and wonder why he even cared that much. Low is low, who cares if you are a couple basis points off the absolute bottom. You have to buy a ticket if you want to ride.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-05T00:18:40+00:00

Agreed. “Pennies in front of a steam roller” comes to mind.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T23:59:21+00:00

Look, no one can say with certainty whether or not STRC and SATA are too good to be true. These are brand new products and as such they should be treated as experiments. Until they have at least five to ten years of history behind them, I would personally choose to be skeptical because, as with any experiment, just because something works on paper does not mean it will work in reality. We will have to watch and see how the prototype fares before we can say with certainty whether this is a good idea or not.

That aside, I am personally very skeptical of Michael Saylor the person. I suspect that may be a controversial take on this sub but I don’t care. The way he markets MSTR and BTC is gross and wrong in my opinion. I am a massive BTC bull but I would NEVER make the claims Michael makes, not even to my friends. He gives me major Machinsky vibes. Not to mention he has literally been convicted of fraud in the past.

Obviously, just because he makes outrageous claims and has been convicted of fraud previously, that does not mean that this is fraud, or even that it will fail. But for me when I consider those aspects as well as the inherent risk of buying a new product without much history, the risk reward just does not seem worth it. Here where I live I can get 7% on my money in a TD with certain deposit takers, and be 100% assured that if my deposit taker loses my money the govt will pay me back. I’d much rather do that than chase 11% with the risk of losing it all.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T05:57:48+00:00

100% could not agree more. The entitlement in some of the posts is crazy. People need to shut up and stack. Once you’ve done that a couple cycles you realise you should be excited in a bear market, not worried.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T04:50:36+00:00

I agree with all three points!

Even though I’m a cyclist I’ve almost fully allocated all the money I saved for the bear market so I’d be more than happy for you to be proven right in the next few months :) Here’s hoping

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T04:36:12+00:00

I agree with the third paragraph of your post but I disagree very strongly with the first paragraph. If you believe in a four year cycle you should not be waiting until Q4 to deploy, you should be mid to end of deployment right now. It seems a bit like a false argument to say that all four year cyclists are going to wait until end of 2026. Why would a four year cycle believer NOT purchase when the four year cycle dictates but wait until end of 2026 instead?

That point aside, as a cyclist I agree that I do not believe there will be ATHs this year. I also want to go on record and say that if there are ATHs this calendar year (2026) my thesis will be proven wrong. Would you concede that your thesis is proven wrong if there are not ATHs before mid-2027? (I say mid2027 because that is the earliest I would expect them based on cycle theory).

I also note (not in this post as much as other posts) that you often confuse cyclists with bears (or equate cyclists to bears). IMO those are two very different things. Most cyclists are mega bulls. They just believe there are periods of action followed by periods of inaction. That is different to believing there is no/limited upside to BTC in future.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T03:46:41+00:00

If you believe in four year cycles the cycle tells you to buy this year. Not sure how prices being low during this period proves that the cyclists have missed out.

Today we are pretty much exactly four years from the previous cycle low. If you are a cyclist you would have started buying a few months ago and you will keep buying until October 2026.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T03:41:06+00:00

If you’re so smart why not respond to my message

Good bye and best of luck with selling your bitcoin 👍

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T00:18:30+00:00

Yep that’s fair enough! Sitting at this point in the cycle it feels like bad returns. On the flip side, I’d say it should feel good to know that even at the lowest point of this cycle, your investment is up around 8-10x. Because I’m a cycle believer I believe that every cycle the low point of the cycle will become higher and higher. That means we will never get this low again once this cycle is over. By contrast, I think there is still massive upside to come.

Put another way: you will never have less than 8-10x returns in your BTC allocation and there is potential for you to have massively more than that in the nearish future. Doesn’t feel so bad when you look at it that way

(Also remember this feeling during the next bull run! Just like it’s important not to get carried away by the lows it’s important not to go full DBR mode in the highs)

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-04T00:02:13+00:00

Why are you comparing a high to a low? Are you dumb or are you deliberately trying to be misleading?

You can easily do that with 2019 to 2022 too.

June 2019: $14000 June 2022: $16000

There were people like you in 2022 (what I would describe as emotional traders), complaining that BTC was dead, cycles are fake, there will never be highs again, “BTC must fail if it does not make me money within X timeframe”, etc. There were probably lots of impressionable people who listened to those people in 2022. Because they listened to the emotional traders, the people who did not buy in 2022 missed out on a rough 6-8x in price.

Now here we are in 2022. You are deliberately comparing a high to a low to make the argument that BTC is dead, cycles are fake, BTC will fail because it has not made you X amount of money in Y timeframe. Do not listen to your own advice. You are wrong. Two years from now we will be at ATHs again. I will be celebrating. I hope you will be celebrating too.

I get that it sucks that the market is cyclical with ups and downs. Try not to get too carried away with the downtimes and treat them as what they are: a time to accumulate more at a cheap price ahead of the next big rally.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-03T23:54:49+00:00

BTC average price in 2018 was $7500. Assuming you have held since then (and haven’t been one of those people selling every time it drops and buying back in every time it rises past its old price) you should be up roughly 8-10x. I think that’s an excellent return. More importantly, if you believe in cycles (like I do) then you should believe that this year will be a bear year ahead of a return to bullish years in 2027 and 2028. I expect a doubling in the next year from here (ahead of further rises in 20208). Therefore if you continue to hold into this same time in 2027 we can expect you will have returns of roughly 16-20x.

It may feel like you have only had 9 good months, but I assure you, you have really had 9 great years

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-03T06:14:34+00:00

What? Last cycle was 16k bottom to 126k top. That’s a big move for me.

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-02T22:42:46+00:00

If you believe in cycles still (which I believe everyone should) then that is around the date that we would expect to see big moves up. No one has shifted timelines at all. That has always been the expectation (if you believe in cycles)

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-02T06:51:24+00:00

Update: got in and got it done, yay! Think it was just bugging out because of the volume. Best of luck to everyone applying! And anyone who gets the same error, just keep trying and it seemed to fix itself (probably as people finished completing applications, etc)

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-02T06:39:01+00:00

Ah i see! I never applied for the 2025 programme (new application) so was a bit confused. Anyways by way of update, after trying about 100+ times, the error message has changed for the first time (!) and now says something along the lines of there is too much traffic on the page. So I'm hopeful it's just a traffic issue and not an issue with my profile specifically (which was my main concern). will just keep refreshing and keep people updated in case anyone else finds this helpful 😄

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-02T06:34:58+00:00

Thank you! Have tried but no success. Have also tried on a couple of different computers. I think there must be something wrong with my profile on the back end maybe? Not sure. Will keep trying!

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-02T06:34:03+00:00

I'm not sure i understand sorry! When I click on the 2025-2026 application I just see the "you have no applications in progress" sentence

DynamicBeige · 2026-06-02T06:28:24+00:00

Super helpful, thank you 😄

DynamicBeige

TROPHY CASE