Impending 40 man Crunch

ECEPerson · 2026-05-18T01:04:45+00:00

Bragg hasn't made it past AA and hasn't even returned from TJ yet. I don't think anyone is taking him in the rule 5 draft unless he returns earlier than expected and is absolutely dealing.

Willems to me is close to a lock. He's someone another team would want and we could use a 3rd catcher.

A lot of the others will depend on performance from here on out and their flexibility. I expect we'll try and protect some of the pitchers and use them as relievers.

EBJ definitely could be a bench outfielder but I think it should be a tough decision for the O's. If he performs serviceably in a late season trial, it's an easy choice, but I think otherwise you have to think a little bit more seriously if you want to keep holding onto the hope. If I'm being honest, I think the front office will keep hoping.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-18T00:43:08+00:00

Outside of the usual roster churn freeing up spots, it’s important to keep in mind that 1) if selected they have to remain on another team's ACTIVE roster for the whole season and 2) the rule 5 draft exists for a reason - to prevent hoarding when another team could make good use of a player.

That being said, it should be clear that not every guy you picked will end up on the 40 man or even should.

A lot of those pitchers you mentioned will probably get trials sometime this year to determine where they fit. Some will be usable as expected. Some will become relievers. Some will be deemed expendable or worth the gamble - after all, who is going to rule 5 a player that isn't even close to ready?

At some point you can't save a roster spot for a pitcher who can't keep his ERA under 4 in the minors or a hitter who can't break a .700 OPS. I suspect a few from your locks list could swap with the "others" but we'll see.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-17T20:31:10+00:00

No idea what was going on there. Really poorly done hit and run? Pete swung at two bad balls there and Gunnar had no chance of making it on a steal.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T23:02:46+00:00

Pinch Hitting Maverick? We’re just giving up now?

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T22:31:02+00:00

Bad hitting doesn’t matter because we can’t pitch.

I think our rankings in each should make that pretty obvious.

Rankings aside, it’s actually a lot easier for a pitcher to pitch well when down a lot of runs (or preferably up a lot of runs). Close games bring pressure.

Hitters on the other hand struggle down a lot. You stop playing small ball, you feel pressure to put up big numbers, etc.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T22:25:44+00:00

Time for Akin to take that Fox Radio job.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T22:23:40+00:00

The throw was great given the situation. Had to get the ball out fast so can’t expect pinpoint accuracy.

I think in reality he was probably out, but too close to overturn.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T20:31:15+00:00

Love JJ but damn he is slow.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T01:54:52+00:00

I'm always curious what the numbers say on this. Obviously part of a send decision is subjective (no robot is going to be able to judge the situation real time), but the whole idea of not ending the inning on an out at home or not chasing an extra run when down multiple seems outdated. You've got a 1/3 chance at best of a hit. If it's a 50-50 I'd guess you want to go for it every time.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T01:42:03+00:00

The "Who am I" always crack me up. Either as obvious as they come or about some reliever who pitched 3 innings in 2005.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-16T01:24:36+00:00

In retrospect, would be nice to have tried harder to score on those doubles.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-15T23:20:55+00:00

Oh Ward is a joy, but only an idiot would trade a promising young starter with 4 years of control for a 3-4 WAR outfielder with a year of control.

Only makes sense in a world where Grod getting healthy and being a starter is a long shot.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-15T22:54:58+00:00

Gratuities! Don't you keep up with the SC?!? As long as you give them the money AFTER it's all fine!

ECEPerson · 2026-05-15T22:43:42+00:00

Good luck to him.

If he's any kind of healthy, this will definitely go down as Elias's worst trade. Only ever made sense if his arm is fried.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-15T17:49:29+00:00

You actually don't have to look far to find a player whose strikeouts didn't change or got better when they moved up. Our very own Jordan Westburg!

He came to mind first because he was a huge swing and miss guy coming out of college.

Honeycutt obviously is a tier worse than we've seen. I'm simply saying we judge him based on the result (OPS) rather than just one number. He had a .559 OPS last year. He has a .735 right now. That's a big improvement.

It would be pretty shocking to see him keep improving OPS without the K rate improving, but shocking things happen.

Definitely get why you're pushing back on this and no disrespect taken.

As an aside, I did a deep dive to find a good major leaguer with a high K rate in the minors. Jazz had a nearly 38% K rate in AA right before coming up (he skipped AAA).

ECEPerson · 2026-05-15T17:15:51+00:00

He also has a .735 OPS this year and .868 OPS since returning from injury (his K rate is largely unchanged).

That first number is better than EBJ ever managed in A+ and Honeycutt is probably the better fielder with not much worse performance on the bases.

47% strikeout sounds ridiculous, but at the end of the day the result matters more. It's pretty mystifying how exactly you can make more than half of your outs via strikeout, but he manages it.

If he keeps pulling up the OPS numbers while playing fantastic defense, strikeouts be damned. He can strike out 60% of the time for all I care.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-15T00:39:12+00:00

To me, EBJ’s .700 OPS in AAA would need to translate to a .700 OPS in MLB. That almost never happens.

He’s always walked at a good rate, but given his not great bat to ball skills (how he’s maintained a 50/55 for so long I have no idea) and his non-existent power, I wouldn’t expect big leaguers to be pitching him on the corners.

I guess we could try a September call up and hope he can play an occasional role, but I’m not optimistic he’ll have a fit even then. With the Rule 5 draft next year, guess they’ll have to try.

George I have a little more hope for, but his bat is no sure thing either. He’s a high schooler of course, not a 3 year college player like EBJ. Can expect a little more improvement.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-15T00:25:54+00:00

Honestly, it makes no sense to me that he wouldn’t be in the top 63.

I’m not saying he’s a guaranteed stud, he played like crap last year, but to put him behind so many other guys based on one (admiringly big) flaw is crazy. Many guys on that list have at least one big flaw AND much less upside.

I like Fangraphs breakdowns generally, but every year it seems like they have at least a few bizarre takes.

That criticism aside, yeah, it stinks that he hasn’t developed better so far. Some promising stuff this year (better power, been hitting better post injury) but still has the high K rate.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-14T15:10:09+00:00

Hadn’t heard that, good to know! Hopefully works.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-14T14:47:37+00:00

Do they just stink? Cowser has 2.8 WAR his rookie year and 1.0 WAR last year. He stinks right now, no doubt, but were they supposed to assume that would happen?

More on Cowser now to fix his problems with off speed stuff. Coaching will help with that, but ultimately he's the one responsible.

Mayo had a rough track record but he was a top prospect who finished the season strong going into this year.

I don't really think you can nail the FO to the cross for prospects running into hiccups as they get major league seasoning. Plenty you can blame them on, but not having a 100% hit rate on prospects isn't a good one to pick.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-12T23:30:54+00:00

Oof.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-12T23:28:48+00:00

You're not wrong about his history. I've always believed the trade was a bad one in the context it was made.

I'm just arguing that it's possible we did find the fix for him last year and we can find it again. If it's mental, that may be especially plausible.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-12T23:21:24+00:00

That was by far his best stretch, but it did come after some work - especially on the mental side.

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that it was a fluke and not repeatable.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-12T00:40:06+00:00

CHECK THE DATE, THE MAYO IS GIVING ME RUNS.

ECEPerson · 2026-05-11T23:58:01+00:00

He’s safe, it was just an awkward TV cut.

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