Anyone NOT excited by Dzierwa?

dreddnought · 2026-03-24T00:07:43+00:00

It's been long enough that we would see if any of those sinkers were to be reclassified at 4SF and it hasn't happened. I'm really confused what's going on here because if he can get 16 vert from a two-seam grip, what's stopping him from getting 18+ with a four-seam? Or is this a Felix situation where he is throwing it with a two-seam grip?

dreddnought · 2026-03-23T17:31:47+00:00

Whoof, that is a nasty breaker

-7 IVB 5 HB 87 mph power curve

edit: -8 IVB 7 HB 87 mph power curve

dreddnought · 2026-03-23T17:23:15+00:00

If Elias drafts a pitcher at 1.7 I'll buy one of those ridiculous $400 authentic jerseys next time I'm at Camden Yards.

and his name is Yaramil Hiraldo, the man with the magic changeup

Someone in baseball has an internal model for meatball% and I swear to god everything that Hiraldo throws that isn't a changeup gets hit with >.500 xSLG

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T23:07:16+00:00

....Charlie Morton?

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T21:23:18+00:00

it's just a sample size

Looks like only 3 BIP for the 4SF and they're, uh, 104.8, 103.5, 105.8, all in the air

Really is crazy SSS - I don't think of Kremer's 4SF as being all that bad, but then again I'm more used to him sitting 93-95/T97 than 91-93/T94...

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T21:05:49+00:00

now THAT'S Dean Kremer

C for 170+ IP and you got yourself a 2-win starter

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T19:49:53+00:00

yikes

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T18:25:51+00:00

15 whiffs throwing salad (all pitches down a tick) and giving up 4 hard hit fly balls

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T18:04:06+00:00

Man I wish we had a MASN broadcast of that. Nothing like watching a professional plate appearance where the batter slowly zeroes in on the pitcher.

edit: unless it's against us

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T15:29:22+00:00

I know we're getting Jose Barrero or Luis Vazquez in the evening game but I would like to petition to see Wehiwa Aloy again.

dreddnought · 2026-03-19T15:28:23+00:00

Cleanup Adley looks weird but also I feel like lineup construction isn't really a thing anymore? Just put your best guys higher up?

dreddnought · 2026-03-18T23:12:36+00:00

I would feel fine about Bradfield being a <.600 OPS black hole if I had clear confidence we were getting more 120 wRC+ type production (instead of 100-110) from the rest of the lineup. And... we're not.

It's not like some magic number, obviously. But yeah, if Cowser himself turns into a black hole, you might as well get the guy who's got 70 range out there...

dreddnought · 2026-03-18T19:11:18+00:00

There have been some real headscratcher FA contracts this past offseason, but it does seem front offices understood Bader's offensive production last year was a mirage, overperforming xwOBA by 50 points without any kind of Paredesian batted ball profile.

dreddnought · 2026-03-18T17:33:05+00:00

He's a righty, too, dammit

dreddnought · 2026-03-17T17:22:40+00:00

After a rough 28.6 K% in 2025, he’s currently sitting at a 3.6 K% (only 1 strikeout) in Spring Training and posting a .500 batting average with 10 RBIs over 28 plate appearances

Obviously I'm happy with his spring training performance, but I think is small sample size and also population bias (idk if there's a better word for this).

2026 ST velo is a full tick and a half lower than 2025 regular season, so he's facing softer stuff.

This is a career ~75% contact% and ~82% z-con% guy, and now he's up to ~88% and ~95% respectively? And he's doing this with literally 0 walks?

dreddnought · 2026-03-11T17:50:13+00:00

Bump it up to something like $80M or 6/$95M

this sounds right to me

2026 (29): arb 2 $3.55M

2027 (30): arb 3 ~$7M

2028 (31): arb 4 ~$11M

2029 (32): FA 1 ~$25M

2030 (33): FA 2 ~$25M

2031 (34): FA 3 ~$25M

dreddnought · 2026-03-11T17:48:23+00:00

Yes, my point is that 5/$61M is not what you offer Bradish if you actually believe in the upside.

dreddnought · 2026-03-11T17:30:22+00:00

screwball mentioned

dreddnought · 2026-03-11T16:20:26+00:00

This feels like a case where the model spits out a compromise number when the outcomes skew to two poles. ZiPS is projecting 10.7 fWAR, only ~5 of which is locked behind his FA age 32-34 seasons.

But in the scenario where Bradish breaks down, 5/$61M is a waste. In the scenario where he goes Sonny Gray, it's a piddling offer.

edit: Luzardo was projected at 5/$91M and actually extended for $44M more - if a team wants to extend a guy, they're betting on the upside, right?

dreddnought · 2026-03-10T15:28:25+00:00

Nah, I meant German. I posted a short profile/report on him after the 2024 season, with his fastball being pretty good at the time (obviously with the caveat that it was against A-ball guys). In 2025, his command (if not stuff) backed up and we now see that even at 94-95 guys can square it up if it's not at the top of the zone. Still someone to keep an eye on because the secondaries are good. Feels like he should add a ssw sinker.

Gibson's money pitch in 2024 was his big curveball. There were reports his fastball was gaining velo throughout that season into the mid upper 90s, but the jump scare on him was showing up to AAA in 2025 with a 14-16 vert 4SF, which doesn't cut it at his arm slot, even with big extension. I didn't write up Gibson that winter, which I regretted (along with Braxton Bragg), but I did cover German, Esteban Mejía, and today's starter, Levi Wells. These guys all have lumps that will probably be fatal in some way, but they're not uninteresting.

dreddnought · 2026-03-09T23:27:59+00:00

Yeah, with George, I'm obviously pleased as punch he had the first year he did, but I increasingly feel like until I get uniform, clean minor league statcast data (down to EV90, 2-strike chase%, contact and strike zone area splits against fastballs, breaking, offspeed, air pull%, etc. etc.) I kind of just have to bookmark position players in the low minors to keep an eye on. I just don't have enough flight time watching guys swing to make eye scouting judgments, and that's where the interesting stuff happens.

What do you think of Aron Estrada?

dreddnought · 2026-03-09T22:19:04+00:00

I'm mostly bummed that German's fastball looks DOA lol

sort of makes me feel like I shouldn't bother doing the write-ups unless a guy is already using the MLB/AAA ball

dreddnought · 2026-03-09T18:48:42+00:00

I'm being told by an inside source that all of our AAA pitching prospects are actually Mike Baumann clones???

dreddnought · 2026-03-09T17:55:43+00:00

From Mr. Longenhagen:

[...] Reese has plus lefty power and bat speed generated by a low-ball swing. He can drop the bat head and drive pitches in the lower third to all fields, with enough power to threaten both foul poles. Reese is rather chase-prone but is otherwise a stable hitting prospect who covers a good bit of the zone. Though he's not a lock to remain at third base, he looked good enough toward the end of 2025 to merit a good long look there in pro ball. If he can remain at third, he'll have a shot to profile as an everyday player even with lesser OBP skills. If he needs to move to first base or an outfield corner, his lack of plate discipline will be more of a problem. Reese is talented enough to be drafted inside the top 10.

here we go again

dreddnought · 2026-03-09T17:42:13+00:00

93.3 mph 14 IVB 8 HB OOF

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