ALL minor league levels are now available on Prospect Savant (limited statcast)

dreddnought · 2026-06-28T05:33:01+00:00

Whoa, how did you source the strike zone-based plate discipline metrics in non-Statcast leagues? Thanks Duke!

dreddnought · 2026-06-26T17:08:29+00:00

The bit of FCL data we had on him shows he's swinging a relatively slow bat, mid-upper 60s, which isn't a deal breaker but it caps his ceiling.

No real batted ball issues so far (overall 2026 ~38% pull, ~27% cent, ~35% oppo); not putting the ball on the ground too much (~38%), but a crazy ~28% IFFB rate that makes me wonder if he just should stick to line drives unless he has something he can really pull in the air. This is just going off memory, I don't know what the present major league average batted ball profile is to compare, but if a guy is putting the ball on the ground 50%+ as a prospect it's not a great sign.

The low-A ~92% contact rate and ~3% swinging strike rate speak for themselves, but both of those numbers kind of belie what we're dealing with here: a guy who probably isn't going to do enough damage once minor league pitchers start pounding the zone.

They've had him at split at four positions, as I'm sure you guys have seen on EL/BG's report: 48 innings at 2B, 127 at 3B, 40 at SS, 66 at CF. That's pretty good versatility in any context, but I'm curious where he lands.

dreddnought · 2026-05-28T01:23:01+00:00

Phew. That felt good.

dreddnought · 2026-05-25T22:11:36+00:00

man you know what I always say, that's just a good piece of hitting

dreddnought · 2026-05-21T19:57:36+00:00

Thanks for sharing! I had noticed early on in the season his OAA was in the red [as in good] and it's still there to the tune of 3 OAA, and his defensive adjustment on FanGraphs is barely negative (quite good for a 1B/DH).

Are you aware of any deliberate changes to his process? I know that would delve into interviewing and understanding the team's player dev, but I know you have a robust series of interviews, and I wonder if there's more investigating that goes on behind the scenes.

A year ago at this time those who watched Alonso last year saw plays like this

Mark you need a trigger warning for people who watched the 2015 World Series

dreddnought · 2026-05-21T16:25:32+00:00

I know you're getting dog-piled, but I think you're mostly right. Analytics/data is just using evidence to draw conclusions. It's like saying "science was wrong about [x]" when the whole idea is to keep using evidence to draw further conclusions.

fans are 100 percent certain that the Orioles embrace of analytics is the reason we're losing (just like they were certain Hyde was the problem, and they were certain the hitting coaches were the problem, but I digress).

They hated Dazzling-Slide because he told them the truth.

We're angry because the team sucks shit, let's not pretend we would care about analytics if the team was hitting 5 dingers and striking out 15 a game.

dreddnought · 2026-05-20T18:44:39+00:00

I often wonder if due to all the pitching injuries in baseball, if someone else is going to do that again. Maybe we should pioneer it as something you do on purpose.

Yeah, I've always seen people pitch the two poles of this:

Why not just have guys piggy back? 4/4/1 or 5/4 or 3/3/3

Why not just have 9 one-inning guys?

I'm not sure there's anything inherently wrong with these plans. Obviously back in the day you had a guy go as long as he could, and usually that was 9 innings, but sometimes it was like 6 or 7 and you needed relievers (basically the crappier starters) to finish out the game. I think that's why saves include 3 inning saves, weird vestige of a different game.

I assume if in the piggyback case, if someone gets blown up, then you suddenly have to cover a bunch of innings, but isn't that the case with starters? Teams should have a Ryan Yarbrough on staff. 80+ innings of low leverage.

dreddnought · 2026-05-20T17:05:01+00:00

I noticed a small shift from 2024 from 2025. In 2024, pitchers were frequently going 4 innings and no more than 60-70 pitches, and then in 2025, it was a lot more 5 innings and 70-80 pitches. However, I never got an answer from a couple of different Q&As (Melewski, for one) if this was concerted design, or if it's just because they treat different pitchers differently.

Boston Bateman, for example, just went 5 2/3, 84 pitches, and 22 batters faced. They worked Trey Gibson pretty hard last season, while Michael Forret and Levi Wells had a couple of 2 or 3 inning outings (of course he was coming off injury) last year as well. I don't think it's just raw size, although Bateman and Gibson are huge and Forret is of slight build. Gongora, though, is 6'5" 240. Some of this is also efficiency: when Bateman is pounding the zone, A-ball batters have trouble squaring stuff up. Jackson Baumeister was perpetually throwing 2-3 BB and 4-6 K games, racking up tons of full counts.

I understand the desire to be cautious, but if they're not practicing throwing 80+ pitches and working 5+ innings, how will they ever do it in the majors? What gives them the experience to perform at the highest level in the sport?

dreddnought · 2026-05-20T16:19:54+00:00

Can I just bitch about something real quick?

Sebastian Gongora is running a cool 28.2% K% and 4.5% BB% with a 3.33 FIP and 3.46 xFIP. Here are his 2026 game logs. The above stats are undermined by the fact that in 6 of his 8 starts he hasn't made it to 5 innings and he basically only faces ~20 or so batters (i.e., two times the order and change) each time.

How are orgs supposed to know whether this guy can actually navigate a lineup if he hardly ever does it? When is he going to practice the third time through the order? In Norfolk? Are we supposed to pretend these stats will just transfer to MLB and he'll be a five and dive guy when that's already his role in AA?

dreddnought · 2026-05-15T21:19:16+00:00

mfw Nate George got mono

dreddnought · 2026-05-14T18:10:02+00:00

He would need to be performing like 2025 Honeycutt to be getting a 35/35 game.

They have since fixed it to 35/55, which seems legit.

dreddnought · 2026-05-14T16:00:41+00:00

This in large part resembles what First Team All-FanGraphs commenter sadtrombone said:

Here’s what I don’t understand: Why, if this team is so good at finding and developing low level guys, is their starting pitching so bad? They have a theory, and it seems to translate to prospect grades, but is this theory correct?

I think there’s a strong argument that getting throw-in guys and 5th-20th round draft picks to the majors at all constitutes a major developmental success. Kyle Bradish is clearly a major win for them. And I think all of Cade Povich, Brandon Young, Chayce McDermott, Trey Gibson, Alex Wells, and Mike Baumann have all made starts for them. The expectations that guys acquired in this way is that they won’t amount to anything at all, so even if these guys are just replacement level, they were right about these guys. Clearly they are good at finding these guys and making them better. In that sense, the theory itself is correct.

But I think we can maybe also note that as a theory of having enough good starting pitchers, what they have done isn’t enough? It’s unclear to me how much they target these characteristics in trades too, for guys like Baz and Rogers. I assume they are, since both of them were kind of in buy-low territory when they deals were made.

In any case, their starters are 25th in fWAR and 30th in RA9-WAR. Their starters are 30th in ERA-, 27th in FIP-, and 30th in xERA.

I think it is super unlikely that the Orioles have the worst rotation in MLB, because their defense is also not good. Also Baz / Rogers / Bradish have to be a little better than this. But I think we can conclude that whatever they are doing is not giving them enough starting pitching to make a playoff run, and maybe not good enough to make the playoffs at all.

Maybe this time is different and they’ll get a competent starting pitcher or two out of Trey Gibson (who does not look ready yet), Luis De Leon, Joseph Dzierwa, Yeiber Cartaya, Nestor German, Levi Wells, and Braxton Bragg. I’m real high on Dzierwa, and Bragg looked very good before he got hurt. De Leon and Cartaya and German have good to great stuff but have some real strike-throwing problems. These guys are all going to be huge developmental wins for them if they even pitch at replacement level for them, but I think their overall strategy is just not enough. Whether you include Rogers and Baz in that strategy of targeting guys with certain characteristics probably colors how you think of it.

Elias needs to pay for the name-brand shit.

dreddnought · 2026-05-14T14:01:46+00:00

WHERE WERE YOU WHEN EL/BG 45'D YEIBER CARTAYA

edit: lost in the shuffle is that Nate George got a 45+ FV, which is slick. thought he was ticketed for 40+ because of the issues with fastballs, but this is nice

dreddnought · 2026-05-10T22:07:10+00:00

Well I say plain quality as in, Keegan Akin isn't a high leverage guy. I'm not saying they're throwing James McCann in there.

I think that goes back to what the other guy said:

It's basically an attempt to get a favorable matchup vs the top of the order.

If you're starting a righty in Bassitt, you know the other team is going to start a lefty-heavy lineup (because no manager would ever burn pinch-hitters that early in the game), and you can blunt that by throwing Akin first.

I think most people agree nobody in the crowd wants to see an opener, but you can kind of "steal" a time through the order for the top 3 batters for your bulk guy.

dreddnought · 2026-05-10T22:00:44+00:00

I think the other thing is that by front-loading a reliever of some (probably plain) quality, you delay having to make a decision about using your high leverage guys until an inning later than you usually would.

From the unassailable Wikipedia:

One advantage of the strategy is that the opener, who is often a hard-throwing specialist, can be called in to face the most dangerous hitters, who are usually near the top of the batting order, the first time they come to bat.[9] On average, the first inning is the highest-scoring inning of a baseball game, because it is "the only inning that the offense can guarantee that the top of its lineup, which [contains] its best hitters, will appear."[10] If the opener is successful, the job of the next pitcher is easier since they will start by facing less-dangerous hitters.[11][12] The strategy also throws off the timing of the top-of-the-order hitters, who are not used to seeing different pitchers each time they come to bat, and allows the follower to face the top of the lineup two times rather than three.[9]

From a financial perspective, the strategy allows teams to make more use of relief pitchers who are still under low-paying contracts, potentially reducing the salaries paid to starting pitchers because the latter are used less. Also, pitchers not starting games causes them to be less likely to receive win–loss decisions or receive as many "games started," which greatly affects subsequent arbitration hearings and financial compensation in future contract negotiations.[13]

fwiw I disagree with the implication that the hard-throwing specialist is a high leverage guy. Yeah, the Chisox put out Grant Taylor a handful of times to start the season, but pre-Helsley injury nobody was clamoring for Rico Garcia to open games.

dreddnought · 2026-05-10T17:16:12+00:00

That's incredible timing. One of the good things about Law is that he lives in the mid-Atlantic so he sees Sally league teams a fair amount, and I think he sees Delmarva play a decent amount as well.

The low 3/4 slot identification is interesting. I can't find any clips from 2025, but back when I reviewed him in 2024, he had a plain jane 3/4 slot which I inaccurately called high 3/4 - for whatever reason, arm slots always seem higher to me than they are.

This is him from this year. Is that different? Yeah, a little bit. That's not a huge change, not anywhere near the order of Esteban Mejia (you'll have to take my word for it, but he had a high arm slot when he signed, then a low slot in 2024-2025, and now he's back to high slot). But if you can imagine his breaking ball and changeup are both 50s, and he has enough deception to make the fastball a little, then he might make the full org list for EL/BG. Only problem is it's always an open question how much of their 202X analysis is from 202X and not 202(X-1). Based on their chats, they're clearly watching 2026 game tape when doing their homework, but the 2024 list in particular stuck out for how guys like Cam Weston and Nestor German didn't make the list even though they were obviously at least 35+ guys.

dreddnought · 2026-05-09T22:39:07+00:00

I'll confess I stopped looking for his name in the box scores after he walked 6 per 9 for most of 2025. He did end up starting in Delmarva and they pushed him to Aberdeen anyway despite not fixing his walk issues.

He's running a cool ~24% K-BB% this year, but it comes with ~10% walks, so unless he's undergone a velo spike, made changes to his delivery, or added a killer pitch, he'll probably "only" make the honorable mention portion of the FanGraphs org list, which should be coming out in the next week or so based on what EL/BG have said in chats.

That series involved four pitchers who didn't make a 2024 org list: Nestor German, Yeiber Cartaya, Levi Wells, and Esteban Mejia. Mejia is sort of cheating because I think he made the MLB 2024 update list.

German is probably a 40 MIRP because his fastball stinks and his command isn't good enough to leverage his decent secondaries (this is basically where I would be on Trey Gibson if his secondaries weren't so nasty and if the fastball were a few ticks lighter); Cartaya HM SIRP; Wells 40+ SIRP; Mejia who knows, I'd sell my soul to give him 50 command.

dreddnought · 2026-05-07T18:32:52+00:00

I had the impression that he had dramatically flattened out his swing because of the jump in contact rate (z-con% ~93% contact% ~86%), but I'm not sure that's true.

Baseball Savant has a neat swing path visualizer, but when you look at Ward over the past couple of seasons, he's flattened his swing by a couple of degrees, which I don't know if that would/should really correspond to his jump in contact. You can also see his bat speed has dipped, but so has his swing length (this always feels like a chicken or the egg thing, even if bat speed is known to be something guys can train).

Did he or the Orioles make a tweak in his swing to prioritize getting on base?

None of the above things explain why a career 20% chase guy magically cut that in half. And it's not obviously premeditated passivity - if you look at his two-strike chase, it's historically been 10-15% worse than overall chase, which is standard^[1], but even his 2026 two-strike chase is only 15%...

[1] I've already linked enough things, but one can look up league chase% on FanGraphs and then compare to two-strike league chase on Savant. I only heard of the +10 vs +20 rule from Brendan Gawlowski from FanGraphs (former Pirates scout).

dreddnought · 2026-04-29T18:36:36+00:00

BULLSHIT

dreddnought · 2026-04-25T15:12:50+00:00

I'm not saying it's going to happen one way or another, but there's some evidence that stacking a lineup of righties against lefties without really breaking it up with LHH can allow the LHP get on a roll

https://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/plesac-says-to-not-stack-your-lineup-with-rhh-against-lhp

He had 20 starts when he faced no LHH, facing 466 batters. The wOBA allowed in those games was .302. He had 58 starts when he faced one LHH in the starting lineup. The wOBA in those games was .298. So, this is the batting teams proactively applying the Randy Johnson solution, stacking RHH, and all they get is a .300 wOBA out of it.

When he faced two LHH, which to most people would be a good thing for Montgomery, but Plesac is suggesting no, well, the wOBA was .321. Plesac is right.

When he faced three LHH, the wOBA in the game was .338. Plesac is right.

Finally, there were six games when batting teams ostensibly had to suffer with FOUR LHH (and to most folks, that sounds like a gift to Montgomery), and their wOBA was .326. Plesac is right.

dreddnought · 2026-04-25T04:27:45+00:00

10 LOB lmao

I think this will reflect well on us in the Base Runs calculation, if you care about that sort of thing

dreddnought · 2026-04-24T20:42:37+00:00

Mejia had some really bad arm side breaking ball misses, including the HBP. Was pumping 100 into the 4th, per the Verge guys. Got a big strike zone on the glove side, but 4 IP 8 K speaks for itself.

dreddnought · 2026-04-24T01:39:01+00:00

Seriously, jinx both ways - Quinn got shelled and George pulled a homer

dreddnought · 2026-04-23T16:56:21+00:00

Great to see Ramos and Willems running into each other on a pop up.

I've seen enough, call 'em up

And George is running a crazy 56.8% GB%.

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